3 ms·

This works until it doesn't. If btc started at 0.01c and is now $100k (roughly) following the curve predicts it will be $100tn/coin or a market cap of $2 billio

This works until it doesn't. If btc started at 0.01c and is now $100k (roughly) following the curve predicts it will be $100tn/coin or a market cap of $2 billion trillion.

scotty79 2y ago
You could say the same thing any time in the past an you'd be wrong every time. That curve will predict such high price but in year 3400 (I'm guessing, I didn't check yet because I wasn't interested in time horizons that exceed my foreseeable future). It's a logarithmic curve (albeit on logarithmic plot). For example the bull market in 4 years from the one that we are currently entering will result in just doubling Bitcoin price which is pathetic (even when compared to 5-7x of the current one, let alone past ones). In another 4 years the growth will be even less. Besides, at some point the random noise in the price signal will mostly overwhelm the shape of the curve and bitcoin will just become like stock market, growing at the glacial pace of economy growth. Bitcoin is ending, but not in a sense of becoming worthless but becoming another boring randomly walking asset at the price around less than $1mln per unit possibly for entirety of this century. That general insight of the shape what Bitcoin is that can be inferred from long term prices is also confirmed by plotting MVRV: https://insights.glassnode.com/content/images/2023/02/07_mvrv_extremes.png https://insights.glassnode.com/content/images/2023/02/07_mvr... It cyclically heads towards boring.
- lolc 2y ago
  What's the differentiator from all the other cryptocoins?
  - npoc 2y ago
    Truly decentralised proof-of-work, with network effect.
  - scotty79 2y ago
    I'd say mostly just the sheer amount of money that was already sunk into it. All those people have very little incentive to break the status quo. Bitcoin protocol successfully resisted changes that could potentially alter its shape.
- vdvsvwvwvwvwv 2y ago
  > You could say the same thing any time in the past an you'd be wrong every time. 1. That is a weak argument. None of the prices so far would reault in this clear absurdity. Bitcoin cannot store more value than there is value. I am wrong if the population booms to the trillions, or the dollar crashes like Zimbabwe. 2. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For the past 40 years I have been alive. If you said anytime in the last 40 years I would die tomorrow, you'd be wrong every time. I will therefore live forever. Biology and statistics be damned. Also see: https://xkcd.com/1122/ https://xkcd.com/1122/
  - scotty79 2y ago
    > That is a weak argument. It's merely an observation. > Bitcoin cannot store more value than there is value. There no hard cap on entirety of future value that will exist at some point in time. And bitcoin growth is slowing down in a way. Same way since the day one. Hence simple fit to a single curve. I have no idea what fraction of value bitcoin will ultimately "store". You can look at gold amd take some guesses but there's no real reason for any of them to be right. > Past performance is not indicative of future results. Yes. And this is not an investment advice. > [...] I would die tomorrow, you'd be wrong every time. I will therefore live forever. Which is true to some approximation and good assumption to live by. Vast majority of people lives everyday with assumption they won't die tomorrow or anytime soon (for their definitions of soon). Then, if they were lucky they grow old and everybody seeing their decline adjusts their expectations. Where are the signs of decline of bitcoin? Is market cap shrinking? What about transaction volume? > Biology and statistics be damned. What statistics or rules of science understood at least as well as biology contradict the working assumption that bitcoin will keep for the foreseeable future its shape that it's been keeping since it popped up?
    - vdvsvwvwvwvwv 2y ago
      Ill ignore the stuff before the last question as it doesn't all seem in good faith. E.g. saying "it is an observation, not an argument" about a provocative statement containing the words "you'd be wrong". For other things you said it wont be interesting to dive into them on a HN thread. That is more about this medium than the points you made per se. To answer the last question. First principles. Exponential growth tails off when resources limits are met. At best Bitcoin takes over all currency usage and the value of it (at some point $ comparisons become useless as it has become more used than dollars) follows human progress i.e. the things we do to trade for bitcoin. There is no reason to believe that the growth rate of all human civ will be as high ad bitcoins break out from Satoshi. And if it is, it has nothing to do with Bitcoin and everything to do with AI. However the future is uncertain enough that we can't pretend this curve is a predictor. Now my back foot is hurting so lets turn this around. What are the underlying principles and systems that make your curve predictive?
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

This works until it doesn't. If btc started at 0.01c and is now $100k (roughly) following the curve predicts it will be $100tn/coin or a market cap of $2 billion trillion.

scotty79 2y ago

You could say the same thing any time in the past an you'd be wrong every time. That curve will predict such high price but in year 3400 (I'm guessing, I didn't check yet because I wasn't interested in time horizons that exceed my foreseeable future). It's a logarithmic curve (albeit on logarithmic plot). For example the bull market in 4 years from the one that we are currently entering will result in just doubling Bitcoin price which is pathetic (even when compared to 5-7x of the current one, let alone past ones). In another 4 years the growth will be even less. Besides, at some point the random noise in the price signal will mostly overwhelm the shape of the curve and bitcoin will just become like stock market, growing at the glacial pace of economy growth. Bitcoin is ending, but not in a sense of becoming worthless but becoming another boring randomly walking asset at the price around less than $1mln per unit possibly for entirety of this century. That general insight of the shape what Bitcoin is that can be inferred from long term prices is also confirmed by plotting MVRV: https://insights.glassnode.com/content/images/2023/02/07_mvrv_extremes.png https://insights.glassnode.com/content/images/2023/02/07_mvr... It cyclically heads towards boring.

lolc 2y ago
What's the differentiator from all the other cryptocoins?
- npoc 2y ago
  Truly decentralised proof-of-work, with network effect.
- scotty79 2y ago
  I'd say mostly just the sheer amount of money that was already sunk into it. All those people have very little incentive to break the status quo. Bitcoin protocol successfully resisted changes that could potentially alter its shape.
vdvsvwvwvwvwv 2y ago
> You could say the same thing any time in the past an you'd be wrong every time. 1. That is a weak argument. None of the prices so far would reault in this clear absurdity. Bitcoin cannot store more value than there is value. I am wrong if the population booms to the trillions, or the dollar crashes like Zimbabwe. 2. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For the past 40 years I have been alive. If you said anytime in the last 40 years I would die tomorrow, you'd be wrong every time. I will therefore live forever. Biology and statistics be damned. Also see: https://xkcd.com/1122/ https://xkcd.com/1122/
- scotty79 2y ago
  > That is a weak argument. It's merely an observation. > Bitcoin cannot store more value than there is value. There no hard cap on entirety of future value that will exist at some point in time. And bitcoin growth is slowing down in a way. Same way since the day one. Hence simple fit to a single curve. I have no idea what fraction of value bitcoin will ultimately "store". You can look at gold amd take some guesses but there's no real reason for any of them to be right. > Past performance is not indicative of future results. Yes. And this is not an investment advice. > [...] I would die tomorrow, you'd be wrong every time. I will therefore live forever. Which is true to some approximation and good assumption to live by. Vast majority of people lives everyday with assumption they won't die tomorrow or anytime soon (for their definitions of soon). Then, if they were lucky they grow old and everybody seeing their decline adjusts their expectations. Where are the signs of decline of bitcoin? Is market cap shrinking? What about transaction volume? > Biology and statistics be damned. What statistics or rules of science understood at least as well as biology contradict the working assumption that bitcoin will keep for the foreseeable future its shape that it's been keeping since it popped up?
  - vdvsvwvwvwvwv 2y ago
    Ill ignore the stuff before the last question as it doesn't all seem in good faith. E.g. saying "it is an observation, not an argument" about a provocative statement containing the words "you'd be wrong". For other things you said it wont be interesting to dive into them on a HN thread. That is more about this medium than the points you made per se. To answer the last question. First principles. Exponential growth tails off when resources limits are met. At best Bitcoin takes over all currency usage and the value of it (at some point $ comparisons become useless as it has become more used than dollars) follows human progress i.e. the things we do to trade for bitcoin. There is no reason to believe that the growth rate of all human civ will be as high ad bitcoins break out from Satoshi. And if it is, it has nothing to do with Bitcoin and everything to do with AI. However the future is uncertain enough that we can't pretend this curve is a predictor. Now my back foot is hurting so lets turn this around. What are the underlying principles and systems that make your curve predictive?

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]