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How do you think this should end? How do you think it actually will?

by ipaddr 2y ago

aguaviva 2y ago
A bare minimum requirement (to have any sense of sanity in the world after this is all over, or at least comes to some kind of a pause) is that (1) Russia will never be granted formal sovereignty over the territories it claims, and (2) all abducted persons, especially minors (alleged to be some 20k in number) are fully repatriated and allowed to return to their families; and (3) there will be no lifting of sanctions until said territories are fully evacuated, and the estimated $1T in damages the aggressor has caused are fully paid. That doesn't mean there can't be a frozen conflict, i.e. cease-fire with no change in positions of forces, or essentially symbolic concessions (like a pledge not to join NATO). That's up for the Ukrainians to decide. If Russia's regime want to hobble along in an alternate universe, in which it pretends those territories are actually theirs, and that sanctions don't really matter, until Putin croaks and its likely disintegration begins in earnest -- that's one thing, and the Ukrainians can decide that matter for themselves as well. But recognized sovereignty on the claimed territories, or a lifting of sanctions absent conditions (2) and (3) being met -- no fucking way. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russo-...
- TMWNN 2y ago
  >That's up for the Ukrainians to decide. No, it is not. 90% of all wars end in negotiated settlements. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, unique about the Russia-Ukraine War that gives either side a guarantee that it will get to unilaterally decide when and how the war ends. Putin may or may not break any peace treaty in the future, but there is no reason to think that he is more or less likely to do so than any one side in any particular war in the history of mankind. If Ukraine can so shatter Russian lines that Russia is forced out of the war and has to give up eastern Ukraine, more power to the Ukrainians. But Ukraine is not entitled to unlimited Western support for all time just because Putin is a thug. I've thought from the start that the likely best case for Ukraine is acknowledging de jure the de facto loss of Crimea and Donbass since 2014, in exchange for * an end to the war * Austrian-style neutrality * specific US/UK/other Western powers' guarantee (not NATO) of territorial integrity for rump Ukraine if Russia attacks it again This would give Putin a way out by giving him a "win" for the domestic audience, cause minimal loss of additional territory for Ukraine, and give it as much security as it can hope for (since NATO membership isn't happening). No, it won't be "Russian forces pushed back to Moscow, Zelensky personally executes Putin in Red Square with 100,000 Redditard denizens of /r/worldnews watching". But, again, a) such is how most wars end, and b) it is not up to Ukraine to decide.
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    You can decide that that's the ending you'd like to have. But I don't see a point in pretending that it would be "best for Ukraine", or rule of law in the international sphere generally. Russian forces pushed back to Moscow That's a straw man of course, and a pretty ridiculous one at that. But if you prefer to live in a world of extreme caricatures, and to reason accordingly, that's your prerogative also.
    - TMWNN 2y ago
      >You can decide that that's the ending you'd like to have. Ah yes, yet another person who prattles "Anything other than `100% Russia gives up everything and Putin shoots himself in shame` = `RUZZIA AND PUTLER WIN!!!1!!!!!` Anyone saying anything else = Vatnik!!1!1!!". Straw man, indeed. >But I don't see a point in pretending that it would be "best for Ukraine", or rule of law in the international sphere generally. Let me repeat: It is not up to Ukraine to decide! It is up to Russia on one side of a negotiating table, and Ukraine and its sponsors on the other. Let us not pretend that for you "best for Ukraine" is, and only is, something not too far from what you claim are my "straw man" of your goals. Or that of the hordes of Redditards who still haven't noticed that after 2.5 years of incessant posts on /r/worldnews and a dozen other subreddits on how Ukraine is beating back vatniks every single day, Russians are somehow still fighting on what is legally Ukrainian territory. (The same goes for Russian propaganda that has claimed for its domestic audience for the past 2.5 years that its anti-fascist forces are daily crushing Ukrainian Nazis left, right, and center.)
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        Ah yes, yet another person who says ... Absolutely no one here is saying that.
  - Animats 2y ago
    > Specific US/UK/other Western powers' guarantee (not NATO) of territorial integrity for rump Ukraine if Russia attacks it again The US gave Ukraine that guarantee last time in exchange for Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons.
- ipaddr 2y ago
  How many young lives are you willing to throw away?
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    Try a substantive response, please.
    - ipaddr 2y ago
      If Ukraine losing a generation is not substantive enough for you to discuss that's okay you can bow out and let others speak.
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        In itself is a substantial matter -- but you aren't using it that way. And again, it's a matter for Ukrainians to decide. To a first order approximation, I think we can trust that as a society, they know what they're fighting for, and why. If you disagree, and you think you know better than they do in this regard -- then my heartfelt recommendation (and closing words on this particular subtopic) for you is/are: go ahead, talk with them (directly, as live human beings) -- and "let them speak".
        ipaddr 2y ago
        We know Zelenskyy recently removed most people in power because they want to talk peace. We also know Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stopped free elections and refuses to let his people vote on this issue. The other aspect is we have to decide if we in the west should keep supporting the self suicide strategy and tonight we find out who decides.
  - jnsaff2 2y ago
    Why don't you ask this from the russians?
    - ipaddr 2y ago

How do you think this should end? How do you think it actually will?

by ipaddr 2y ago

How do you think this should end? How do you think it actually will?

A bare minimum requirement (to have any sense of sanity in the world after this is all over, or at least comes to some kind of a pause) is that (1) Russia will never be granted formal sovereignty over the territories it claims, and (2) all abducted persons, especially minors (alleged to be some 20k in number) are fully repatriated and allowed to return to their families; and (3) there will be no lifting of sanctions until said territories are fully evacuated, and the estimated $1T in damages the aggressor has caused are fully paid. That doesn't mean there can't be a frozen conflict, i.e. cease-fire with no change in positions of forces, or essentially symbolic concessions (like a pledge not to join NATO). That's up for the Ukrainians to decide. If Russia's regime want to hobble along in an alternate universe, in which it pretends those territories are actually theirs, and that sanctions don't really matter, until Putin croaks and its likely disintegration begins in earnest -- that's one thing, and the Ukrainians can decide that matter for themselves as well. But recognized sovereignty on the claimed territories, or a lifting of sanctions absent conditions (2) and (3) being met -- no fucking way. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russo-...

TMWNN 2y ago
>That's up for the Ukrainians to decide. No, it is not. 90% of all wars end in negotiated settlements. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, unique about the Russia-Ukraine War that gives either side a guarantee that it will get to unilaterally decide when and how the war ends. Putin may or may not break any peace treaty in the future, but there is no reason to think that he is more or less likely to do so than any one side in any particular war in the history of mankind. If Ukraine can so shatter Russian lines that Russia is forced out of the war and has to give up eastern Ukraine, more power to the Ukrainians. But Ukraine is not entitled to unlimited Western support for all time just because Putin is a thug. I've thought from the start that the likely best case for Ukraine is acknowledging de jure the de facto loss of Crimea and Donbass since 2014, in exchange for * an end to the war * Austrian-style neutrality * specific US/UK/other Western powers' guarantee (not NATO) of territorial integrity for rump Ukraine if Russia attacks it again This would give Putin a way out by giving him a "win" for the domestic audience, cause minimal loss of additional territory for Ukraine, and give it as much security as it can hope for (since NATO membership isn't happening). No, it won't be "Russian forces pushed back to Moscow, Zelensky personally executes Putin in Red Square with 100,000 Redditard denizens of /r/worldnews watching". But, again, a) such is how most wars end, and b) it is not up to Ukraine to decide.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  You can decide that that's the ending you'd like to have. But I don't see a point in pretending that it would be "best for Ukraine", or rule of law in the international sphere generally. Russian forces pushed back to Moscow That's a straw man of course, and a pretty ridiculous one at that. But if you prefer to live in a world of extreme caricatures, and to reason accordingly, that's your prerogative also.
  - TMWNN 2y ago
    >You can decide that that's the ending you'd like to have. Ah yes, yet another person who prattles "Anything other than `100% Russia gives up everything and Putin shoots himself in shame` = `RUZZIA AND PUTLER WIN!!!1!!!!!` Anyone saying anything else = Vatnik!!1!1!!". Straw man, indeed. >But I don't see a point in pretending that it would be "best for Ukraine", or rule of law in the international sphere generally. Let me repeat: It is not up to Ukraine to decide! It is up to Russia on one side of a negotiating table, and Ukraine and its sponsors on the other. Let us not pretend that for you "best for Ukraine" is, and only is, something not too far from what you claim are my "straw man" of your goals. Or that of the hordes of Redditards who still haven't noticed that after 2.5 years of incessant posts on /r/worldnews and a dozen other subreddits on how Ukraine is beating back vatniks every single day, Russians are somehow still fighting on what is legally Ukrainian territory. (The same goes for Russian propaganda that has claimed for its domestic audience for the past 2.5 years that its anti-fascist forces are daily crushing Ukrainian Nazis left, right, and center.)
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      Ah yes, yet another person who says ... Absolutely no one here is saying that.
- Animats 2y ago
  > Specific US/UK/other Western powers' guarantee (not NATO) of territorial integrity for rump Ukraine if Russia attacks it again The US gave Ukraine that guarantee last time in exchange for Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons.
ipaddr 2y ago
How many young lives are you willing to throw away?
- aguaviva 2y ago
  Try a substantive response, please.
  - ipaddr 2y ago
    If Ukraine losing a generation is not substantive enough for you to discuss that's okay you can bow out and let others speak.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      In itself is a substantial matter -- but you aren't using it that way. And again, it's a matter for Ukrainians to decide. To a first order approximation, I think we can trust that as a society, they know what they're fighting for, and why. If you disagree, and you think you know better than they do in this regard -- then my heartfelt recommendation (and closing words on this particular subtopic) for you is/are: go ahead, talk with them (directly, as live human beings) -- and "let them speak".
      - ipaddr 2y ago
        We know Zelenskyy recently removed most people in power because they want to talk peace. We also know Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stopped free elections and refuses to let his people vote on this issue. The other aspect is we have to decide if we in the west should keep supporting the self suicide strategy and tonight we find out who decides.
- jnsaff2 2y ago
  Why don't you ask this from the russians?
  - ipaddr 2y ago