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China's nuclear deterrence also isn't to be messed with. They've built a super-redundant delivery triad. And given the speed with which China scales up technolo

China's nuclear deterrence also isn't to be messed with. They've built a super-redundant delivery triad. And given the speed with which China scales up technology, I will bet my entire net worth that they have thousands of warheads ready-to-go. Since China & USA can't invade each other (LMAO) and a nuclear exchange would be suicide, any conflict in the South-China sea would have to be standoff - lobbing cruise missiles at the other non-stop. And the US doesn't even have that front locked down. Despite spending $800b/y, the US military has a stockpile of just 4k Tomahwaks (as of 2020). If we translate China's production-spamming to the Taiwan situation, then we can safely assume they have a stockpile of missiles that dwarfs that several times. And since they're projecting power in their backyard, it'll be a logistical walkover, especially with how the CCP tends to get things done quickly and at scale. Sorry if this feels off the point, but your comment just got me thinking about the SCS/Taiwan situation.

JohnBooty 2y ago
Yeah, 100% agree on all points. The idea of winning a conventional war in China's backyard after 10-20 years of them building toward it is absurd. And nuclear war is uh, nuclear war. Not really a "winner" there. The only thing stopping China is obviously the huge financial incentive of losing their biggest trading partner(s). That will obviously be an enormous loss for them. At some point though they may calculate that the long term gains are worth it, I don't know the calculus there.
- churchill 2y ago
  Yes, if they can diversify and expand their positions in gateway economies like Mexico (gateway to North America), Hungary (gateway to Europe), CCP-controlled companies can sell into Western economies without being sanctioned to hell. And Western economies have gotten addicted to cheap Chinese goods: it's the one thing keeping the poor & middle-class from revolting in many first-world nations where people may have been priced out of home ownership. So, even the economic angle isn't a slam dunk for the US and her allies. Just decades of sleeping at the wheels finally catching up.

JohnBooty 2y ago

Yeah, 100% agree on all points. The idea of winning a conventional war in China's backyard after 10-20 years of them building toward it is absurd. And nuclear war is uh, nuclear war. Not really a "winner" there. The only thing stopping China is obviously the huge financial incentive of losing their biggest trading partner(s). That will obviously be an enormous loss for them. At some point though they may calculate that the long term gains are worth it, I don't know the calculus there.

churchill 2y ago
Yes, if they can diversify and expand their positions in gateway economies like Mexico (gateway to North America), Hungary (gateway to Europe), CCP-controlled companies can sell into Western economies without being sanctioned to hell. And Western economies have gotten addicted to cheap Chinese goods: it's the one thing keeping the poor & middle-class from revolting in many first-world nations where people may have been priced out of home ownership. So, even the economic angle isn't a slam dunk for the US and her allies. Just decades of sleeping at the wheels finally catching up.