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More like a knee jerk reaction IMO. Intel is having a bad time, but they're not dead yet, and may well be a better, more reliable long term market indicator.

More like a knee jerk reaction IMO. Intel is having a bad time, but they're not dead yet, and may well be a better, more reliable long term market indicator. All this means is that the Dow is currently chasing hype. JMHO (not an expert investor, this is not advice, ...)

whynotminot 2y ago
IMO a “bad time” is a couple bad quarters or even a bad year. Intel has had something closer to a bad decade. This doesn’t feel too reactionary.
- floating-io 2y ago
  Doing poorly does not make them a bad indicator of overall industry health. And they've had bad stretches before. I myself am wondering, but I wouldn't count them out just yet.
  - whynotminot 2y ago
    > Doing poorly does not make them a bad indicator of overall industry health. AMD, Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm — everyone else seems to be doing much better than Intel. Intel seems like an outlier in the industry.
    - floating-io 2y ago
      They might be an outlier in terms of current profit metrics, but they are still the market leader in the CPU space, and not by a small margin. I would consider it foolish to disregard the metrics of a company that holds in the neighborhood of 75% of market share in a critical tech market. Comparing Nvidia to Intel is more difficult because Intel is comparatively a bit player in the GPU market. Adding NVDA is not the issue; it's an important market segment, and they're the leader. Deleting Intel is an issue. CPUs are and will remain a vital component of the tech market, and thus, so will Intel for the foreseeable future. So long story short, this makes the Dow start looking like a better indicator of hype than overall market health IMHO. I don't want my market index to cherry-pick only the ones that are rising. You are certainly free to disagree ;) Again, I'm hardly an expert investor.
      - whynotminot 2y ago
        I’m not an expert either! And you’re right, Intel is still a very large and important player. You’re calling it shifting to be an indicator of hype, but maybe it’s more an indicator of where things are going? Intel has strong incumbency on their side for sure, but their business just looks so weak going forward and the decline has been so pronounced now for so long. I wouldn’t count them out either though. And honestly I’m rooting for them. They’re an iconic brand and I hope they can recover.
BenFranklin100 2y ago
Absolutely. Get ready to watch the DJIA crash once people figure out LLMs can’t actually reason and never will. This will be a boon for the credibility of the S&P 500.
- tbrownaw 2y ago
  A plain LLM by itself can't reason, but that doesn't rule out tools make made from an LLM plus other specialized modules. For example I believe the "write a python program to..." approach was showing promise for math-y stuff last I heard.

whynotminot 2y ago

IMO a “bad time” is a couple bad quarters or even a bad year. Intel has had something closer to a bad decade. This doesn’t feel too reactionary.

floating-io 2y ago
Doing poorly does not make them a bad indicator of overall industry health. And they've had bad stretches before. I myself am wondering, but I wouldn't count them out just yet.
- whynotminot 2y ago
  > Doing poorly does not make them a bad indicator of overall industry health. AMD, Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm — everyone else seems to be doing much better than Intel. Intel seems like an outlier in the industry.
  - floating-io 2y ago
    They might be an outlier in terms of current profit metrics, but they are still the market leader in the CPU space, and not by a small margin. I would consider it foolish to disregard the metrics of a company that holds in the neighborhood of 75% of market share in a critical tech market. Comparing Nvidia to Intel is more difficult because Intel is comparatively a bit player in the GPU market. Adding NVDA is not the issue; it's an important market segment, and they're the leader. Deleting Intel is an issue. CPUs are and will remain a vital component of the tech market, and thus, so will Intel for the foreseeable future. So long story short, this makes the Dow start looking like a better indicator of hype than overall market health IMHO. I don't want my market index to cherry-pick only the ones that are rising. You are certainly free to disagree ;) Again, I'm hardly an expert investor.
    - whynotminot 2y ago
      I’m not an expert either! And you’re right, Intel is still a very large and important player. You’re calling it shifting to be an indicator of hype, but maybe it’s more an indicator of where things are going? Intel has strong incumbency on their side for sure, but their business just looks so weak going forward and the decline has been so pronounced now for so long. I wouldn’t count them out either though. And honestly I’m rooting for them. They’re an iconic brand and I hope they can recover.

BenFranklin100 2y ago

Absolutely. Get ready to watch the DJIA crash once people figure out LLMs can’t actually reason and never will. This will be a boon for the credibility of the S&P 500.

tbrownaw 2y ago
A plain LLM by itself can't reason, but that doesn't rule out tools make made from an LLM plus other specialized modules. For example I believe the "write a python program to..." approach was showing promise for math-y stuff last I heard.