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China is nothing like the 19th century US. While it has invested infrastructure, the scale of its investment does not equate to the US - it vastly, vastly over
by contingencies 2y ago
China is nothing like the 19th century US.
While it has invested infrastructure, the scale of its investment does not equate to the US - it vastly, vastly overshadows it. The nature of its infrastructure investment: centralist planning under socialist leadership, is also nothing like US robber-baron driven development. Modern China's urbanization has been nothing less than the largest human migration in history. The infrastructure went from the odd railroad with a few urbanized cities to fiber optic internet, 5G data, high speed trains and airports everywhere in the country within ~30 years. 1.4 billion people have cell phones, flatscreen TVs, instant messaging, e-vehicles and streaming movies.
But now the bubble has burst. Growth has slowed. Factories are closing, or heavily automating with world-leading levels of technical integration, cutting headcounts. The educated youth are unemployed. International investment has dried up. Rumours abound that the party leadership is in crisis with factional schisms and high profile coverups, and the national pension fund has been emptied. Chinese with money seek to escape by moving their families overseas. The specter of the party looms over remnant private industry seeking a tax to aide its flailing coffers. Everyone recognizes the education system is terrible and seeks to send their kids overseas. A fledgeling venture capital industry, once buoyant, has seized, and while domestic remittance is ~free and ~instantaneous international financial remittance is heavily regulated. But everyone can watch the latest Hollywood, Bollywood or Chinese content. Wealthy young Chinese can obtain information from across the country in seconds and access drugs like cocaine, ecstasy, ketamine, and marijuana, drive Teslas or Ferraris and wield iPhones. Everyone in the cities has a VPN on their phone to get foreign content. AI's potential to accelerate further change looms large.
How is this anything like the US in the 19th century, an era before even broadcast media? This to me seems a frankly ridiculous assertion. Modern China is nothing like anything that has ever happened before, in terms of technology, political ideology, or economy. At best, weak parallels can be drawn along constrained axes, but the big picture is totally unknown to history. I only hope for the people's sake the current situation can be resolved without civil war. And indeed such wishes should be extended globally, as in the current era, the UK, the US, parts of western Europe and even my native Australia could be said to have the socioeconomic preconditions for civil war. Let us not see another world war in our lifetime. Let us not be blinded by nationalism.
Nationalism is an infantile disease: the measles of mankind - Einstein, who also incidentally, it should be highlighted, was himself a globalist-humanist and turned down the presidency of Israel considering Zionism a self-destructive political ideology...
- arrobbiato 2y agoThis seems extremely negative on China, and echoes a lot of web content that frankly smacks of anti-Chinese propaganda. To be clear, I'm not accusing you of being a propagandist and in fact I believe you are 100% sincere, and I'm glad you've provided your opinion here. But the similarity of your description to the various China-bashing outlets is striking and makes me question the sources of it.
- contingencies 2y agoMy opinions are my own, based on decades of experience since first living in China in 2001. I last lived there in 2022. I actually run businesses, and my social networks consist of disparate experiences, which probably means my view of things is more nuanced and rationally founded than fly-in journalists or those watching only the statistics, albeit necessarily only a "partial truth" (nobody knows exactly what is going on across the country, not even the government). Perhaps if you raised concerns regarding a specific point it would be possible to respond more fully.
- arrobbiato 2y agoYou clearly have a wealth of expertise that I don't, and because of that, I again thank you for your original comment. It's probably better for me to simply consider your point of view rather than try to question it using second-hand data.
- Prbeek 2y ago1.6 billion dollars for propaganda is a lot of money. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/china-cold-war-2669160202/ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/china-cold-war-2669160202/
- mitthrowaway2 2y agoThat's not nearly the impression that I got from reading the GP comment. Did you mean to reply to a different one? If anything, it seemed rosy; for example I was under the impression that China had cracked down on VPNs. But if GP says they're still widely accessible, then it leaves me with the impression that China has more free access to information than I previously thought.