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> the most important people in tech including Nvidia CEO, Sam, Hinton, Musk and many others believe that AI will very soon be able to do everything a coder can

> the most important people in tech including Nvidia CEO, Sam, Hinton, Musk and many others believe that AI will very soon be able to do everything a coder can do today. They all have a serious financial interest in that being the case, so that's entirely unsurprising and not terribly persuasive. > I believe this is a case of "normalcy bias" where crowds refuse to see reality because it's too disturbing. I believe that nobody can actually know what all this will be right now, so what you're seeing isn't one group denying reality and another group accepting it. You're seeing two groups speculating about the future and expressing different opinions.

appplication 2y ago
Level headed take. There’s no secrets to AGI that Altman/Musk/etc know that you or I don’t. The cutting edge research is out of the bag and in the open. They see AGI as an inevitable result of funding continued research in the space. There is most certainly some hubris there as well that they think they are uniquely positioned to be the one to bring it across the line. Either way, it’s all speculation about the future. I think if we’re being truly honest and objective, transformer models are interesting and occasionally useful, but they are still a very far cry from AGI. I also think AGI will become marketing term. We’re going to see it lose any meaning as the capitalists try to upsell us and convince us “mission accomplished, we now have the world’s first AGI”, at the nearest convenient moment, if it helps them juice short term profits.
- onecommentman 2y ago
  Not unique to capitalism, cf. 20th Century fascist states, communist states, totalitarian states in general have all upsold nonsense for short-term benefits. Capitalism tends to have fewer direct murderous/genocidal side effects and the emperor is told he is naked more quickly, directly and effectively.
red-iron-pine 2y ago
> > the most important people in tech including Nvidia CEO, Sam, Hinton, Musk and many others believe that AI will very soon be able to do everything a coder can do today. > They all have a serious financial interest in that being the case, so that's entirely unsurprising and not terribly persuasive. perhaps more importantly there have been constant hype cycles of tech CEOs saying the same thing, and plenty of submarine advertising efforts to hype them in the same way OP is. this skepticism isn't coming from nowhere; plenty of history of CEOs lying through their teeth to the world

appplication 2y ago

Level headed take. There’s no secrets to AGI that Altman/Musk/etc know that you or I don’t. The cutting edge research is out of the bag and in the open. They see AGI as an inevitable result of funding continued research in the space. There is most certainly some hubris there as well that they think they are uniquely positioned to be the one to bring it across the line. Either way, it’s all speculation about the future. I think if we’re being truly honest and objective, transformer models are interesting and occasionally useful, but they are still a very far cry from AGI. I also think AGI will become marketing term. We’re going to see it lose any meaning as the capitalists try to upsell us and convince us “mission accomplished, we now have the world’s first AGI”, at the nearest convenient moment, if it helps them juice short term profits.

onecommentman 2y ago
Not unique to capitalism, cf. 20th Century fascist states, communist states, totalitarian states in general have all upsold nonsense for short-term benefits. Capitalism tends to have fewer direct murderous/genocidal side effects and the emperor is told he is naked more quickly, directly and effectively.

red-iron-pine 2y ago

> > the most important people in tech including Nvidia CEO, Sam, Hinton, Musk and many others believe that AI will very soon be able to do everything a coder can do today. > They all have a serious financial interest in that being the case, so that's entirely unsurprising and not terribly persuasive. perhaps more importantly there have been constant hype cycles of tech CEOs saying the same thing, and plenty of submarine advertising efforts to hype them in the same way OP is. this skepticism isn't coming from nowhere; plenty of history of CEOs lying through their teeth to the world