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“Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, the company that owns Perini Navi, said that when operated properly, the Bayesian was ‘unsin

“Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, the company that owns Perini Navi, said that when operated properly, the Bayesian was ‘unsinkable.’” I assign a rather low prior probability to any ship being “unsinkable”, so I’ll need better evidence than that before my posterior probability becomes more than minuscule

mulmen 2y ago
“Operated correctly” is the true scotsman of unsinkable ships.
- jcgrillo 2y ago
  Just don't crash it into an iceberg and you're all set.
stavros 2y ago
Everything is unsinkable if you exclude the sinking conditions as "improper operation".
Animats 2y ago
It's possible to come close. This is a U.S Coast Guard response boat being tested.[1] Using big straps and winches, it was pulled all the way over until it was upside down. It immediately righted itself. Most modern rescue boats and lifeboats are self-righting. With proper hull design and enough foam flotation blocks in the right places, boats can be made to right themselves. Unless the boat is chopped into bits, it will float. It's worth it for those classes of vessels. Their job is to handle very rough conditions. The price of such extreme stability is a rough ride. Self-righting yachts exist.[2] But they look like rescue boats with nicer interiors. Many recreational sailboats have enough flotation to survive 90 degrees of roll, with the sails flat on the water. This is called a "knockdown". In small craft, it's usually embarrassing but not a disaster. Larger sailing craft are usually built to avoid rolling that far. There's a conflict between luxury and seaworthyness. The things you want for rough conditions, such as high freeboard and few openings, conflict with what people want in a luxury craft. Bayesian apparently couldn't go past 45 degrees without water pouring in. A stupidly tall and heavy mast allowed wind to push it that far over with no sails raised. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXF-TjOjD5k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXF-TjOjD5k [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqVItm0jfE0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqVItm0jfE0
- kragen 2y ago
  Your comment, if correct, is far better than the NYT article, explaining what happened and why in five short paragraphs.
  - Animats 2y ago
    That's just an overview. The real question is, how did a heavily ballasted sailboat with no sails raised get knocked down by wind alone? Other boats nearby did not report large waves. Nobody has really answered that yet.
- jabl 2y ago
  > Self-righting yachts exist.[2] But they look like rescue boats with nicer interiors. > Many recreational sailboats have enough flotation to survive 90 degrees of roll, with the sails flat on the water. This is called a "knockdown". In small craft, it's usually embarrassing but not a disaster. Larger sailing craft are usually built to avoid rolling that far. Offshore racing rules tend to specify things like minimum angle of vanishing stability (AVS), they tend to be around 130 degrees. Similarly yachts sold in the EU must fulfill ISO 12217-2 which, AFAIU, also requires a minimum AVS of 130 degrees. Not sure if that applies to the Bayesian, it might be old or big enough to be exempt from these rules.
  - Animats 2y ago
    A former captain of the Bayesian wrote a 2-page note.[1] "The downflooding angle for Bayesian was around 40-45 degrees". The Angle of Vanishing Stability was, he says, in the 75 to 90 degree range, depending on whether the moveable keel was down. The movable keel, he writes, weighed 60 tons. It had to be down when sails were raised, but usually wouldn't be lowered in harbor. There were 200 tons of fixed keel ballast. [1] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-edwards-78539147_some-notes-on-bayesian-activity-7233792846770659328-JLgI/ https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-edwards-78539147_some...
    - jabl 2y ago
      Yes, I saw that writeup linked to in the discussion earlier. I'm no naval architect, but I'd imagine for such a big boat an AVS of 90 degrees sounds reasonable. But a downflooding angle of only 40-45 degrees, that's just bonkers.
starspangled 2y ago
About the best you can do is a boat that is fundamentally buoyant or (aka positive buoyancy) via a combination of materials and sealed spaces, which basically means you can submerge it, flip it, fill it with water, and it buoyancy is enough that it will come to the surface. But if you overload it or damage it and compromise air spaces or break off or crush lighter-than-water materials (e.g., styrofoam filled fixtures and voids), then it's no longer unsinkable. So you're right, nothing is unsinkable. Not even when "operated properly" and maintained properly, there's no guarantee you won't run into unforeseen conditions. An unsinkable boat is as ridiculous as an uncrashable airplane or automobile.
- lazide 2y ago
  Arguably, if 'operated properly' a nuclear submarine is probably the best bet. Or a large aircraft carrier. One can chill under the waves, the other is so big we don't know of any waves that can meaningfully do much to it.
  - mr_toad 2y ago
    Rogue waves are suspected in the sinking of even very large vessels such as supertankers. If they hit a vessel and knock out the bridge, without control, drifting side-on to the waves in a storm even a huge vessel can sink.
    - lazide 2y ago
      And that is applicable to my examples how?

mulmen 2y ago

“Operated correctly” is the true scotsman of unsinkable ships.

jcgrillo 2y ago
Just don't crash it into an iceberg and you're all set.

stavros 2y ago

Everything is unsinkable if you exclude the sinking conditions as "improper operation".

Animats 2y ago

It's possible to come close. This is a U.S Coast Guard response boat being tested.[1] Using big straps and winches, it was pulled all the way over until it was upside down. It immediately righted itself. Most modern rescue boats and lifeboats are self-righting. With proper hull design and enough foam flotation blocks in the right places, boats can be made to right themselves. Unless the boat is chopped into bits, it will float. It's worth it for those classes of vessels. Their job is to handle very rough conditions. The price of such extreme stability is a rough ride. Self-righting yachts exist.[2] But they look like rescue boats with nicer interiors. Many recreational sailboats have enough flotation to survive 90 degrees of roll, with the sails flat on the water. This is called a "knockdown". In small craft, it's usually embarrassing but not a disaster. Larger sailing craft are usually built to avoid rolling that far. There's a conflict between luxury and seaworthyness. The things you want for rough conditions, such as high freeboard and few openings, conflict with what people want in a luxury craft. Bayesian apparently couldn't go past 45 degrees without water pouring in. A stupidly tall and heavy mast allowed wind to push it that far over with no sails raised. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXF-TjOjD5k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXF-TjOjD5k [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqVItm0jfE0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqVItm0jfE0

kragen 2y ago
Your comment, if correct, is far better than the NYT article, explaining what happened and why in five short paragraphs.
- Animats 2y ago
  That's just an overview. The real question is, how did a heavily ballasted sailboat with no sails raised get knocked down by wind alone? Other boats nearby did not report large waves. Nobody has really answered that yet.
jabl 2y ago
> Self-righting yachts exist.[2] But they look like rescue boats with nicer interiors. > Many recreational sailboats have enough flotation to survive 90 degrees of roll, with the sails flat on the water. This is called a "knockdown". In small craft, it's usually embarrassing but not a disaster. Larger sailing craft are usually built to avoid rolling that far. Offshore racing rules tend to specify things like minimum angle of vanishing stability (AVS), they tend to be around 130 degrees. Similarly yachts sold in the EU must fulfill ISO 12217-2 which, AFAIU, also requires a minimum AVS of 130 degrees. Not sure if that applies to the Bayesian, it might be old or big enough to be exempt from these rules.
- Animats 2y ago
  A former captain of the Bayesian wrote a 2-page note.[1] "The downflooding angle for Bayesian was around 40-45 degrees". The Angle of Vanishing Stability was, he says, in the 75 to 90 degree range, depending on whether the moveable keel was down. The movable keel, he writes, weighed 60 tons. It had to be down when sails were raised, but usually wouldn't be lowered in harbor. There were 200 tons of fixed keel ballast. [1] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-edwards-78539147_some-notes-on-bayesian-activity-7233792846770659328-JLgI/ https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-edwards-78539147_some...
  - jabl 2y ago
    Yes, I saw that writeup linked to in the discussion earlier. I'm no naval architect, but I'd imagine for such a big boat an AVS of 90 degrees sounds reasonable. But a downflooding angle of only 40-45 degrees, that's just bonkers.

starspangled 2y ago

About the best you can do is a boat that is fundamentally buoyant or (aka positive buoyancy) via a combination of materials and sealed spaces, which basically means you can submerge it, flip it, fill it with water, and it buoyancy is enough that it will come to the surface. But if you overload it or damage it and compromise air spaces or break off or crush lighter-than-water materials (e.g., styrofoam filled fixtures and voids), then it's no longer unsinkable. So you're right, nothing is unsinkable. Not even when "operated properly" and maintained properly, there's no guarantee you won't run into unforeseen conditions. An unsinkable boat is as ridiculous as an uncrashable airplane or automobile.

lazide 2y ago
Arguably, if 'operated properly' a nuclear submarine is probably the best bet. Or a large aircraft carrier. One can chill under the waves, the other is so big we don't know of any waves that can meaningfully do much to it.
- mr_toad 2y ago
  Rogue waves are suspected in the sinking of even very large vessels such as supertankers. If they hit a vessel and knock out the bridge, without control, drifting side-on to the waves in a storm even a huge vessel can sink.
  - lazide 2y ago
    And that is applicable to my examples how?