Setting aside the questionable methodology, I expect a lot of gigs are far more accepting of mediocrity from a man than a woman, so women doing software develop

Setting aside the questionable methodology, I expect a lot of gigs are far more accepting of mediocrity from a man than a woman, so women doing software development are much more likely to self-select out if they're not up for it— whether in actuality or due to imposter syndrome. In any case, I would generally agree with your take but express it a bit differently— the group of programmers who really blow me away with their ingenuity and commitment to excellence has significantly more women in it than the larger population ratio suggests should be expected.