5 ms·
The fact it was reported and Altman didn’t deny it shows how ludicrous and wild his thinking is It might be a $100B company on paper but that’s propped up by M
by stogot 2y ago
The fact it was reported and Altman didn’t deny it shows how ludicrous and wild his thinking is
It might be a $100B company on paper but that’s propped up by Microsoft investment. It’s hemoragging money still isn’t it?
- jsheard 2y agoYes, they're apparently not expecting to turn a profit until 2029, with their losses peaking at $14 billion in 2026. Their recent $6.6 billion funding round would barely buy them 6 months of runway at that peak. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-projections-imply-losses-tripling-to-14-billion-in-2026 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-projections-i...
- mrweasel 2y ago$100B is crazy, no one would buy OpenAI for $100B.
- rvnx 2y agoPerhaps Microsoft, so they can push the losses to the shareholders of Microsoft instead of their own balance sheet.
- pclmulqdq 2y agoMicrosoft only gave them an exorbitant price because they were paying in Azure credits for GPUs. That's something like a 50% discount for Microsoft compared to giving them cash, and it also incentivizes OpenAI to continue using their stuff after the credits are burned through.
- stogot 2y agoI’ve heard Microsoft customers got burned by this. GPU availability and inference workloads is prioritized for OpenAI
- sekai 2y agoThey would have, 1.5 years back. Now there are other players in town.
- osigurdson 2y agoWhy not? My ChatGPT to google usage is easily 10 to 1 at this point. How long will it be until everyone is basically doing the same thing as I am?
- yifanl 2y agoThat would only be meaningful if ChatGPT made as much money as Google did per query (as is, I believe they lose money on each, so they can hardly make it up in volume).
- osigurdson 2y agoThey could throw an ad platform on it in 5 minutes if they wanted to.
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y agoLOL It took Google 15 years to build an ad empire. And they still have trouble filling ad slots on YouTube. You think ChatGPT is just going to "turn on" $100B in online ad spending overnight? That's not how it works.
- osigurdson 2y agoWhy do you think it would take so long to throw an ad system on ChatGPT? Personally, if I could buy OpenAI stock at 100B market cap right now, I would back up the truck.
- riffraff 2y agoadding ads is easy, adding ads that work is not. Google can easily monetize a search for "dentist in $city" where your intent is to spend money, OpenAI would have to monetize "sum up this email" where money is not involved at all.
- 2y ago
- ashvardanian 2y agoI don't think it's fair. There many $100B+ companies with less IP, and much less access to talent. I don't even see people lining up to work for Apple or dreaming to work for Google anymore.
- synarchefriend 2y agoAltman did deny it. https://www.fierceelectronics.com/electronics/openai-ceo-altman-agaub-invokes-need-oversight-ai https://www.fierceelectronics.com/electronics/openai-ceo-alt...
- novaleaf 2y agoIt doesn't seem like a denial to me, more of a deflection. From that article: > He added the number is not known, adding that the $7 trillion came from a report with an anonymous source. “You can always find some anonymous source to say something, I guess,” he added.
- swalsh 2y agoSOTA AI companies are modern airlines. They're selling a capital intensive commodity that has little meaningful differentiation once you pass a certain threshold. Customers just want the lowest price available.
- cynicalpeace 2y agoWow fascinating comparison. Who makes all the money in the airline industry? Lobbyists?
- kfarr 2y agoOil companies? Airports? Servicing companies? Frequent flier and credit card programs tied to the airlines?
- nonameiguess 2y agoAirlines themselves are perfectly fine. It's relatively hard to break into as a disruptor, but the employees of the established players are mostly well-paid. The executives are even better-paid. The investors can earn steady, predictable, positive returns as long as the stock is reasonably priced and doesn't make assumptions about impossible levels of future growth. Airlines are not super-profitable, but with sufficient volume, you don't need high margins, and they're at least profitable as long as we don't have 9/11 or Covid happening. I'm not personally knowledgeable about this or anything, so look into it yourself, but just picking a random really big one, United Airlines, it looks like they consistently beat the S&P 500 for most of the past 20 years, until Covid, and the past four years since then have been pretty bad.
- mapt 2y agoThey are profitable regardless in the face of 9/11 and COVID because we will bail them out. What they don't seem to be able to weather is significant changes in the structure of pension obligations, and dramatic fatal crashes. There is also an impending shift into electric short-haul flights that is going to cause some changes to the business model, with whoever can't adapt exiting those markets.