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He would have to have AGI proof to ask for this unprecedented kind of investing money. And even them it would have to be split during a decade or two. And even
by hu3 2y ago
He would have to have AGI proof to ask for this unprecedented kind of investing money.
And even them it would have to be split during a decade or two. And even then.
What's the military budget of USA?
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y agoIt doesn't matter what the military budget is. Most of it is spent on personnel and operation. You'd want to know only what the procurement is - which is ~$146B: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_... And most of that is part of Gross Fixed Capital Formation already...
- dgfitz 2y agoIt’s funny how that bit only comes up when HN wants to use it to make a point.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- ipaddr 2y agoWhat is dark budget look like these days.
- ChumpGPT 2y agoDark budget? They can't even supply Ukraine with enough ammo and weapons to defend themselves and the DoD is already squealing that they are running out of everything. Dark budget..hahahaha...good one....
- MichaelZuo 2y agoHow is that relevant? It seems totally possible that enough interest groups don’t want Ukraine to actually win, so they block anything more than the minimum viable amount. So it’s not much of a barometer at all for anything…
- eru 2y agoYes, but this theory requires more and more epicycles. There's probably some small-ish 'dark budget'. But think about it: the official budget is in the order of single digit percentage points of US GDP. That represents and enormous amount of resources. Any appreciable fraction of that in a 'dark budget' would also leave traces all over the place.
- MichaelZuo 2y agoWell of course? The world is vastly more complex than say the world of 1945, so almost certainly there are now likely several dozens to several hundreds of ‘epicycles’ that are in fact true and necessary for full understanding. Edit: Now the pentagon doesn’t contain the entire complexity of mankind within it… but it’s probably not that far off.
- eru 2y agoI'm not actually sure that the world is more complex today. Lots of things are a lot easier and simpler, in fact.
- coretx 2y agoHindsight bias. States, like us human beings, are not nor ever have been completely in control of themselves and exist out of different "parts" making the whole. Also, when expected outcomes don't align with perceived results, it's usually best but not very human to doubt yourself. You never have all the information you need for making the best decision or opinion. "Dark Budgets" vested in firms like Dwave via firms like inQtel, steer research about quantum computing. Whoever has Shor/Grovers going first, has a advantage equitable to winning the AGI race... That too can win wars. Nothing is simple and perceived simpleness is on the clock, for everyone.
- eru 2y agoI'm not quite sure what you are on about. What bearing does what you mention have on the question on whether things got more or less complicated? > Also, when expected outcomes don't align with perceived results, it's usually best but not very human to doubt yourself. Eg this seems like something that would apply equally well at any time? > Whoever has Shor/Grovers going first, has a advantage equitable to winning the AGI race... That too can win wars. We have plenty of quantum resistant options, and people are already switching over. And the story of the Enigma and its encryption shows that cryptographic and its breakage was already important back in the day. > Nothing is simple and perceived simpleness is on the clock, for everyone. How is this different now than before, though?
- derektank 2y agoThere's no dark budget, it's all there, the programs are just usually listed as "Classified" or "Special Activities" like NGA funding was in the late 90s.
- lupusreal 2y ago> This does not include many military-related items that are outside of the Defense Department budget, such as nuclear weapons research, maintenance, cleanup, and production, which are in the Atomic Energy Defense Activities section,[90] Veterans Affairs, the Treasury Department's payments in pensions to military retirees and widows and their families, interest on debt incurred in past wars, or State Department financing of foreign arms sales and militarily-related development assistance. Neither does it include defense spending that is domestic rather than international in nature, such as the Department of Homeland Security, counter-terrorism spending by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and intelligence-gathering spending by NSA, although these programs contain certain weapons, military and security components. > Accounting for non DoD military-related expenditure gives a total budget in excess of $1.4 trillion.[91]
- soulofmischief 2y agoThe Pentagon frequently "loses" $1T here and there and then says, "oopsie!" with no actual consequences. That looks like a dark budget to me once you factor out typical government waste and overredundancy. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/pentagon-audit-2666415734/ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/pentagon-audit-2666415734/
- colechristensen 2y ago>What's the military budget of USA? Somewhere between $900B and $1T this year
- cedws 2y agoYeah, I mean, what else would you do with those chips? Run LLMs faster? Sorry but the killer app is still not there, the majority of people do not care and have no use for them.
- Zopieux 2y agoDon't you dare question the usefulness of gen ai on the hacker news. Many folks haven't caught up with reality just yet.
- Terr_ 2y agoIt's not quite that bad, at least not in comments.
- HKH2 2y agoI wonder what proportion of students use them for homework etc. The coming generations of people will care less about writing style.
- hu3 2y agoIt's the new calculator. I don't have papers but I think calculators, which are amazing and necessary, impact people's mental calculation capabilities. I know I used to he better at multiplication when i didn't have calculators all around me. IMO, AI will have similar impact. Great advance overall but will nerf some areas of our mental capacity. Like astronauts losing muscle mass faster in zero gravity. AI impact on our brain, just like the calculator, might be a reasonable price to pay for the advancement it gives.
- eru 2y ago> I know I used to he better at multiplication when i didn't have calculators all around me. My manual calculation skills were at their peak in seventh grade in school, when we were allowed to use a calculator for the first time (and thus the exercises got harder) but simultaneously I usually forgot to bring mine. But yeah, I don't think I could think better in general, when I did arithmetic better.
- adastra22 2y agoHe had AGI. He still has it. You can have it too, for a $20/month subscription from OpenAI or Anthropic. It just turns out that AGI (artificial general intelligence, which ChatGPT objectively is), is not a singularity nor even a tipping point towards causing one.
- echoangle 2y agoHow is ChatGPT „objectively“ AGI? You don’t think there are common intellectual tasks humans are better at than ChatGPT? Can ChatGPT do math better than a human without specific prompting to use a calculator (function calls)?
- lupusreal 2y agoI never understood AGI to mean "better than humans". A lot of people assumed it would easily be made to be, by simply throwing more silicon at it until it was, but being smarter than humans isn't what makes it "AGI". Put this another way, suppose we create a computer program that is only as smart as a bottom 10% human (I'm not saying they have.) You can't reasonably say that is smarter than humans generally. But are you comfortable saying that bottom 10% humans lack any general intelligence at all? General intelligence doesn't mean extreme intelligence, and so Artificial General Intelligence doesn't either. You might say that the term is more than the sum of the parts, which is fair, but I still dispute that superhuman abilities was ever part of the definition of AGI. It was just a (thusfar) failed prediction about AGI.
- echoangle 2y agoMy definition and the one I found on Wikipedia is „AGI […] matches or surpasses human cognitive capabilities across a wide range of cognitive tasks.“. Being better that the bottom 10% of humans on some tasks doesn’t really qualify to me.
- fragmede 2y agoASI (artificial super intelligence) is distinct from AGI. Not distinguishing between those two just confuses things.