3 ms·

Ford sees another $1B EV loss, lowers guidance and its stock falls 6%

16 points by ivewonyoung 2y ago

throwaway19972 2y ago
Expecting the market to sell EV when there's such pressure to subsidize lower fuel costs was never going to work out. Americans' inability to stomach discomfort without destabilizing the country is really, really bad news for the human race.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  The EV slowdown is global, not just in the US. Even in China non-T1 city purchasers are leaning towards hybrids due to a mix of range anxiety and worries about xharging resources [0] EVs today are in the same position that hybrids were 20 years ago. They will eventually become more prominent, but the current iteration of EVs is still early in the life cycle, and big budget purchases like EVs still need more time in order for consumers to understand how EV depreciation works. [0] - https://www.ft.com/content/5efcef9f-645d-44cb-96cf-9cd19719d4aa https://www.ft.com/content/5efcef9f-645d-44cb-96cf-9cd19719d...
  - ZeroGravitas 2y ago
    The global "slowdown" means selling roughly 3 million (20%) more than last year, with the share of all car sales up from 18% to over 20% of total and all predictions expecting that to continue. Why do words no longer mean anything when people want to deny a reality they find uncomfortable?
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      Slowdown doesn't mean a net zero or net negative delta. It just means that the YoY delta has slowed. When any company makes significant CapEx investment like retooling ICE factories for EV manufacturing, the AOPs are generated based on certain assumptions of industry rate of growth. The recentish rush of ICE manufacturers into EVs thanks to global subsidizes (something I support because battery supply chains have dual use implications) was predicated on the assumption that the rate of EV adoption and new car sales would be consistent with 2019-23, but these projections didn't take into account that overall automotive consumer demand would shrink rapidly (ICE and EV) or the fact that ESG financing would lose relevance due to external shocks from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. What this means is a number of very new players in the EV space got burned really bad because their AOPs have fallen apart. Companies like Tesla and BYD weren't as badly affected because they had been investing in EV manufacturing for over a decade, unlike more recent entries who only began these investments in the 2019-23 period. Adoption is happening, but it's not going to be as fast as EV fanatics say, but it's not going to be as slow as ICE fanatics say either. That said, for most manufacturers who entered the EV space without a cohesive strategy, they are in a world of pain now because they have financial obligations to make whole. > Why do words no longer mean anything when people want to deny a reality they find uncomfortable Frack off. I'm not making a moral judgement on EVs or biasing in favor of ICE vehicles.
  - lesuorac 2y ago
    Yeah, the chargers build-out was done a bit too poorly. Really needed to subsidize / give a premium per kwh dispersed at a charger instead of just paying them to make them. The current incentives meant we got a ton of chargers but not that they stayed in working order which is pretty much the worse situation. It's better to know that the few chargers work than have many options to charge at but not know if they work (or they work poorly).
- Log_out_ 2y ago
  Thanks goes to all those "humanists" who did not wamt to engage with humanity as it is and consider the physical building human material for their perfect sky castle. You took away moments of vital debate thinking it was all about air superiority, meanwhile its all about engaging a hostile physical universe with a brittle spoon.
panja 2y ago
It doesn't help that even if I wanted one, none are available at msrp or below
- blitzar 2y ago
  They should change MSRP to $250,000 then discount it by 72% so you feel like you are getting a good deal.
- floxy 2y ago
  I'm super confident if you are in the U.S. and really wanted a Ford EV, you can get it for below MSRP.
oldpersonintx 2y ago
they can never catch Tesla VW tried also and failed miserably Ford and GM are truck companies; just look at what they actually sell and where they are actually getting margins VW, Ford and GM operate their EV businesses now as a loss-leading marketing facade and not much else
- bdcravens 2y ago
  Hyundai/Kia's EV division meanwhile is doing well, and are apparently profitable. https://insideevs.com/news/714104/hyundai-range-extender-interview/ https://insideevs.com/news/714104/hyundai-range-extender-int... I own a Kia EV6, and my wife has a VW ID4. Obviously I'm biased by the car I drive every day, but my car feels so much more intuitive and thought out. Elon has spoken positively about them (https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1537870974703607810 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1537870974703607810) and met with the Hyundai CEO during the Paris Olympics.
- tzs 2y ago
  On the other hand Tesla is great at the "E" part of EV, but not so great at the "V" part. Since the "V" part is the most important part for me, I'll get an EV when either Tesla figures out the "V" part of the others figure out the "E" part. So far I've not seen anything that suggests Tesla is getting better at "V" faster than others are getting better at "E" so I have no idea who is going to first make an EV that I'd actually. Fortunately I'm not under any serious time pressure. My current car is a 2006 Honda CR-V with around 83k miles on it and I've kept up reasonably well with maintenance. That was one of the good years for CR-V reliability, and with reasonable maintenance should be good for 250-300k miles.
- red-iron-pine 2y ago
  Tesla can't catch Tesla these days, and their real competition is China, not Ford
yalogin 2y ago
Ford’s EV line up is bad, very bland. Not sure how they are expecting to drum up excitement in their customers. EVs are not and never will be purchased like a regular gas car. They are still a second car for commute and for people with a little excess money. So people need to be excited about them to buy. Tesla did that before musk went crazy. I see the similar excitement with Hummer, which looks amazing. Except for the Mustang EV, the rest are bland. They should pulllout some of their decommissioned models/brands and bring them out as EVs just like what GMC did with Hummer
- bdcravens 2y ago
  Maybe we're an exception, but my wife and I both have EVs, and no other cars. We even drove from Texas to California and back in one. That said, avoiding emissions is a value we have that others may not share.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Depends on the EV brand. Tesla's Supercharger system is fairly comprehensive and well maintained, but other systems like Electrify America isn't at the same level. American EVs are increasingly consolidating under Supercharger (IRA benefits also played a role) but the interoperability rollout only began this year.
    - bdcravens 2y ago
      EA isn't the same level, but it's what we used. (2022) My experience on that trip was that between population centers along the freeways (I-10 and I-8) Superchargers and EA stations were in the same places.
Kon-Peki 2y ago
> On the plus side, Ford reacted quickly to the EV slowdown and holds an advantage now, and also placed a bet on hybrids that has paid off, he said. Farley went on to say that the company “radically simplified” its future sub-$30,000 EV. This better not be Elon-ware.

16 points by ivewonyoung 2y ago

throwaway19972 2y ago

Expecting the market to sell EV when there's such pressure to subsidize lower fuel costs was never going to work out. Americans' inability to stomach discomfort without destabilizing the country is really, really bad news for the human race.

alephnerd 2y ago
The EV slowdown is global, not just in the US. Even in China non-T1 city purchasers are leaning towards hybrids due to a mix of range anxiety and worries about xharging resources [0] EVs today are in the same position that hybrids were 20 years ago. They will eventually become more prominent, but the current iteration of EVs is still early in the life cycle, and big budget purchases like EVs still need more time in order for consumers to understand how EV depreciation works. [0] - https://www.ft.com/content/5efcef9f-645d-44cb-96cf-9cd19719d4aa https://www.ft.com/content/5efcef9f-645d-44cb-96cf-9cd19719d...
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  The global "slowdown" means selling roughly 3 million (20%) more than last year, with the share of all car sales up from 18% to over 20% of total and all predictions expecting that to continue. Why do words no longer mean anything when people want to deny a reality they find uncomfortable?
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Slowdown doesn't mean a net zero or net negative delta. It just means that the YoY delta has slowed. When any company makes significant CapEx investment like retooling ICE factories for EV manufacturing, the AOPs are generated based on certain assumptions of industry rate of growth. The recentish rush of ICE manufacturers into EVs thanks to global subsidizes (something I support because battery supply chains have dual use implications) was predicated on the assumption that the rate of EV adoption and new car sales would be consistent with 2019-23, but these projections didn't take into account that overall automotive consumer demand would shrink rapidly (ICE and EV) or the fact that ESG financing would lose relevance due to external shocks from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. What this means is a number of very new players in the EV space got burned really bad because their AOPs have fallen apart. Companies like Tesla and BYD weren't as badly affected because they had been investing in EV manufacturing for over a decade, unlike more recent entries who only began these investments in the 2019-23 period. Adoption is happening, but it's not going to be as fast as EV fanatics say, but it's not going to be as slow as ICE fanatics say either. That said, for most manufacturers who entered the EV space without a cohesive strategy, they are in a world of pain now because they have financial obligations to make whole. > Why do words no longer mean anything when people want to deny a reality they find uncomfortable Frack off. I'm not making a moral judgement on EVs or biasing in favor of ICE vehicles.
- lesuorac 2y ago
  Yeah, the chargers build-out was done a bit too poorly. Really needed to subsidize / give a premium per kwh dispersed at a charger instead of just paying them to make them. The current incentives meant we got a ton of chargers but not that they stayed in working order which is pretty much the worse situation. It's better to know that the few chargers work than have many options to charge at but not know if they work (or they work poorly).
Log_out_ 2y ago
Thanks goes to all those "humanists" who did not wamt to engage with humanity as it is and consider the physical building human material for their perfect sky castle. You took away moments of vital debate thinking it was all about air superiority, meanwhile its all about engaging a hostile physical universe with a brittle spoon.

panja 2y ago

It doesn't help that even if I wanted one, none are available at msrp or below

blitzar 2y ago
They should change MSRP to $250,000 then discount it by 72% so you feel like you are getting a good deal.
floxy 2y ago
I'm super confident if you are in the U.S. and really wanted a Ford EV, you can get it for below MSRP.

oldpersonintx 2y ago

they can never catch Tesla VW tried also and failed miserably Ford and GM are truck companies; just look at what they actually sell and where they are actually getting margins VW, Ford and GM operate their EV businesses now as a loss-leading marketing facade and not much else

bdcravens 2y ago
Hyundai/Kia's EV division meanwhile is doing well, and are apparently profitable. https://insideevs.com/news/714104/hyundai-range-extender-interview/ https://insideevs.com/news/714104/hyundai-range-extender-int... I own a Kia EV6, and my wife has a VW ID4. Obviously I'm biased by the car I drive every day, but my car feels so much more intuitive and thought out. Elon has spoken positively about them (https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1537870974703607810 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1537870974703607810) and met with the Hyundai CEO during the Paris Olympics.
tzs 2y ago
On the other hand Tesla is great at the "E" part of EV, but not so great at the "V" part. Since the "V" part is the most important part for me, I'll get an EV when either Tesla figures out the "V" part of the others figure out the "E" part. So far I've not seen anything that suggests Tesla is getting better at "V" faster than others are getting better at "E" so I have no idea who is going to first make an EV that I'd actually. Fortunately I'm not under any serious time pressure. My current car is a 2006 Honda CR-V with around 83k miles on it and I've kept up reasonably well with maintenance. That was one of the good years for CR-V reliability, and with reasonable maintenance should be good for 250-300k miles.
red-iron-pine 2y ago
Tesla can't catch Tesla these days, and their real competition is China, not Ford

yalogin 2y ago

Ford’s EV line up is bad, very bland. Not sure how they are expecting to drum up excitement in their customers. EVs are not and never will be purchased like a regular gas car. They are still a second car for commute and for people with a little excess money. So people need to be excited about them to buy. Tesla did that before musk went crazy. I see the similar excitement with Hummer, which looks amazing. Except for the Mustang EV, the rest are bland. They should pulllout some of their decommissioned models/brands and bring them out as EVs just like what GMC did with Hummer

bdcravens 2y ago
Maybe we're an exception, but my wife and I both have EVs, and no other cars. We even drove from Texas to California and back in one. That said, avoiding emissions is a value we have that others may not share.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  Depends on the EV brand. Tesla's Supercharger system is fairly comprehensive and well maintained, but other systems like Electrify America isn't at the same level. American EVs are increasingly consolidating under Supercharger (IRA benefits also played a role) but the interoperability rollout only began this year.
  - bdcravens 2y ago
    EA isn't the same level, but it's what we used. (2022) My experience on that trip was that between population centers along the freeways (I-10 and I-8) Superchargers and EA stations were in the same places.

Kon-Peki 2y ago

> On the plus side, Ford reacted quickly to the EV slowdown and holds an advantage now, and also placed a bet on hybrids that has paid off, he said. Farley went on to say that the company “radically simplified” its future sub-$30,000 EV. This better not be Elon-ware.