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The problem with prediction markets is that they are tiny and restricted to individuals. Last election cycle I was able to handily "win" a bit of money on Pred
by legitster 2y ago
The problem with prediction markets is that they are tiny and restricted to individuals.
Last election cycle I was able to handily "win" a bit of money on PredictIt by just looking at polling data and betting the line. Markets are heavily distorted, but the max I could bet is $800 so there's no way a handful of informed "investors" (gamblers) could un-distort the market.
The only way to actually get the markets efficient and predictive would be to bring in huge money from things like hedge funds. But then you obviously have a much bigger problem where there's suddenly huge financial incentives for interfering and tampering in elections.
- tim333 2y agoPolymarket, as mentioned in the article, isn't either of those. The amount bet on Trump/Kamala is $2.59bn, amazingly enough. It's all done via crypto on the polygon network so anyone with access to that can bet. In theory some countries are blocked but if you just turn on a VPN you are unblocked. There's no KYC - it's decentralized. With that sort of money you could see some sort of rig the election scheme be an issue.