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I'm pretty cynical about "prediction markets" supplanting polls. There are a lot more meta-games going on, especially if the "prediction" can somehow influence
by Terr_ 2y ago
I'm pretty cynical about "prediction markets" supplanting polls. There are a lot more meta-games going on, especially if the "prediction" can somehow influence the odds of itself happening.
Plus, y'know, the whole gambling aspect, especially when it's a zero-sum game with other gambler and the house/brokerage. The regular stock market has its warts, but it at least involves some amount of externally productive human activities.
- legitster 2y agoThe problem with prediction markets is that they are tiny and restricted to individuals. Last election cycle I was able to handily "win" a bit of money on PredictIt by just looking at polling data and betting the line. Markets are heavily distorted, but the max I could bet is $800 so there's no way a handful of informed "investors" (gamblers) could un-distort the market. The only way to actually get the markets efficient and predictive would be to bring in huge money from things like hedge funds. But then you obviously have a much bigger problem where there's suddenly huge financial incentives for interfering and tampering in elections.
- tim333 2y agoPolymarket, as mentioned in the article, isn't either of those. The amount bet on Trump/Kamala is $2.59bn, amazingly enough. It's all done via crypto on the polygon network so anyone with access to that can bet. In theory some countries are blocked but if you just turn on a VPN you are unblocked. There's no KYC - it's decentralized. With that sort of money you could see some sort of rig the election scheme be an issue.