4 ms·

I'm going to repost a comment of mine from a while ago, because I still believe the main cause is simple: Weed just isn't cool anymore. >[Marijuana] revenues h

I'm going to repost a comment of mine from a while ago, because I still believe the main cause is simple: Weed just isn't cool anymore. >[Marijuana] revenues have actually declined on a per-state level for three years now in some states despite inflation. General sales tax receipts are up by 27% since 2020 [0] and meanwhile California's weed sales are down. Even better, until recently they were rising at a rapid pace, having rose 2.82x from Q1 2018 to Q2 2020. [1] >The reason why is obvious to anyone who's attended a party in the last few years: weed isn't cool anymore. Partly by being illegal, it used to be cool, but now it's accessible to anyone. A lot of people had that realization when they heard "oh, I'm into weed now" from their uncool middle-aged uncle whose previous hobbies had included LARPing and painting miniatures. It's not even just about the legality though: smoking a joint is a hell of a lot cooler than sucking on a USB stick that smells like candy grapes, and vapes, being far more convenient, have now been tied to weed's image. Something being cool is far better marketing than any ad ever designed. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QTAXT09QTAXCAT1USYES https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QTAXT09QTAXCAT1USYES [1] https://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/dataportal/charts.htm?url=CannabisTaxRevenues https://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/dataportal/charts.htm?url=CannabisT...

darth_avocado 2y ago
Legal weed sales being down doesn’t necessarily mean people are no longer using it. It just means people aren’t buying it legally and paying taxes.
- Tade0 2y ago
  So many people who want to have a say regarding policy don't understand this. My country has a particularly high rate of sugar consumption. Are we a nation with a sweet tooth? Hardly, as it's inversely correlated with alcohol consumption as measured via sales figures and the process of moonshine production is greatly enhanced by the use of sugar as feedstock. Meanwhile there's a whole movement that aims to limit alcohol availability in stores. A noble pursuit, but a misguided one, as the reported increases in alcohol sales over the past years are actually a sign of people preferring to buy instead of producing their liquor now that they can afford it.
- rachofsunshine 2y ago
  Perhaps, but you can also gather data on usage, which suggests [1] the % of Americans using marijuana is close to flat after a brief bump in usage during COVID (which would make sense - people were home more, had less to do, and were pretty stressed out). It's also a lot lower than I'd have thought; after living in Berkeley for a few years 13% seems awfully low <.< Note that marijuana has become legal in a LOT more jurisdictions during the timeframe of this chart: it was illegal in every state at the start of that graph, and is now legal for recreational use in 24 states, including many of the largest. So this is despite it becoming much more available and much less risky to use. [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/284135/percentage-americans-smoke-marijuana.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/284135/percentage-americans-smo...
- owenversteeg 2y ago
  It's mostly the large-volume users buying illegally when legal options are available; as a percentage of total users it is small. Weed is very cheap relative to other drugs and alcohol; nobody's seeking out a sketchy dealer to save a few bucks every few weeks, and now that prices have come down so much, dealers aren't interested in selling (to them) tiny amounts on an irregular basis. Prices varied wildly by geography and how savvy you were, but years before legalization it wasn't uncommon to buy weed for $60/8th aka $17/gram for 3.54g. That was weed of far lower potency than what you buy today in the dispensary. Adjusted for inflation and potency, if you were to buy an eighth today for $60 you would be effectively paying a quarter of that price - but nobody's buying $60 eighths in 2024: you can now buy _legal_ $60 ounces in some places and $140 legal ounces in most states. Again, adjust for inflation and potency and we're comfortably under 1/10th the price of years ago - of what was already a cheap drug! There's just no motivation for illegal sales if you're an occasional user.
citizenpaul 2y ago
It could be that weed is now orders of magnitude stronger than it used to be. Its almost impossible to buy something that is not some sort of specialized ultra high THC strain. A lot of people myself included don't want to be that messed up, so they cant even function. Its like if you could no longer buy anything lower than 180 proof alcohol to drink. A lot of people don't want to be that drunk and would just stop or greatly limit their drinking.

darth_avocado 2y ago

Legal weed sales being down doesn’t necessarily mean people are no longer using it. It just means people aren’t buying it legally and paying taxes.

Tade0 2y ago
So many people who want to have a say regarding policy don't understand this. My country has a particularly high rate of sugar consumption. Are we a nation with a sweet tooth? Hardly, as it's inversely correlated with alcohol consumption as measured via sales figures and the process of moonshine production is greatly enhanced by the use of sugar as feedstock. Meanwhile there's a whole movement that aims to limit alcohol availability in stores. A noble pursuit, but a misguided one, as the reported increases in alcohol sales over the past years are actually a sign of people preferring to buy instead of producing their liquor now that they can afford it.
rachofsunshine 2y ago
Perhaps, but you can also gather data on usage, which suggests [1] the % of Americans using marijuana is close to flat after a brief bump in usage during COVID (which would make sense - people were home more, had less to do, and were pretty stressed out). It's also a lot lower than I'd have thought; after living in Berkeley for a few years 13% seems awfully low <.< Note that marijuana has become legal in a LOT more jurisdictions during the timeframe of this chart: it was illegal in every state at the start of that graph, and is now legal for recreational use in 24 states, including many of the largest. So this is despite it becoming much more available and much less risky to use. [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/284135/percentage-americans-smoke-marijuana.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/284135/percentage-americans-smo...
owenversteeg 2y ago
It's mostly the large-volume users buying illegally when legal options are available; as a percentage of total users it is small. Weed is very cheap relative to other drugs and alcohol; nobody's seeking out a sketchy dealer to save a few bucks every few weeks, and now that prices have come down so much, dealers aren't interested in selling (to them) tiny amounts on an irregular basis. Prices varied wildly by geography and how savvy you were, but years before legalization it wasn't uncommon to buy weed for $60/8th aka $17/gram for 3.54g. That was weed of far lower potency than what you buy today in the dispensary. Adjusted for inflation and potency, if you were to buy an eighth today for $60 you would be effectively paying a quarter of that price - but nobody's buying $60 eighths in 2024: you can now buy _legal_ $60 ounces in some places and $140 legal ounces in most states. Again, adjust for inflation and potency and we're comfortably under 1/10th the price of years ago - of what was already a cheap drug! There's just no motivation for illegal sales if you're an occasional user.

citizenpaul 2y ago

It could be that weed is now orders of magnitude stronger than it used to be. Its almost impossible to buy something that is not some sort of specialized ultra high THC strain. A lot of people myself included don't want to be that messed up, so they cant even function. Its like if you could no longer buy anything lower than 180 proof alcohol to drink. A lot of people don't want to be that drunk and would just stop or greatly limit their drinking.