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The model underlying the word "singularity", AIUI, does involve a vertical asymptote. It is not supposed to be "merely" exponential. Of course, exponential gro
by FooBarBizBazz 2y ago
The model underlying the word "singularity", AIUI, does involve a vertical asymptote. It is not supposed to be "merely" exponential.
Of course, exponential growth is much more compatible with our experience of the real economy. And even it is probably a local approximation of some sigmoid.
But, to return to the singularity idea --
Iteration 1: Computers think at speed 1, and design a twice-as-fast computer in one time unit.
Iteration 2: Now computers think at speed 2, and design a twice-as-fast computer in half a time unit.
Iteration 3: Computers think at speed 4, and design a twice-as-fast computer in 1/4 time unit.
You will note that --
a.) The total time to do an infinite number of iterations is 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + ... = 2 time units.
b.) After this infinite number of iterations, the computer thinks at speed "2^infinity".
So that (bad) model does have a literal singularity.
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoAs you say, that model is bad. Specifically, it assumes that the change from speed 1 to speed 2, and the change from speed 2 to speed 4, take the same amount of compute time to design. That is almost certainly false; if it were not, humans would have quickly gone faster than Moore's Law.