I'm just spitballing, but I think you could explain it that the disillusioned people aren't anti-trans by itself, but rather anti what they perceive is so much

I'm just spitballing, but I think you could explain it that the disillusioned people aren't anti-trans by itself, but rather anti what they perceive is so much attention being spent on the issue rather than the "real problems". So "culture war" fuels negative condemnation of the other side, while not directly creating positive support for their own politicians. Of course that's still totally disconnected from reality given that if you're concerned about inflation you shouldn't be voting for the guy that oversaw the printing of trillions of dollars (monetary inflation) that caused immediate asset inflation (his goal) but price inflation spread over several years as monetary velocity went back up. And if you're concerned with taxes going up, you shouldn't be voting for the guy that signed those tax increases into law. So I don't think rationality actually has much to do with where we're at.