2 ms·
That's not true, the most respected analyst says a blowout is reasonably likely. Nate Silver says that there's a 40% chance of a blowout even though the odds a
by bryanlarsen 2y ago
That's not true, the most respected analyst says a blowout is reasonably likely. Nate Silver says that there's a 40% chance of a blowout even though the odds are 50/50.
There are 7 swing states, and Nate Silver says that the odds of all 7 states going to the same candidate is 40%. 25% chance Trump takes all 7, and a 15% chance Harris takes all 7.
Essentially, a broad 2% polling error in either direction means a blowout. What are the chances of a 2% polling erorr? Pretty darn high.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-state-of-play-in-the-7-states https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-state-of-play-in-the-7-stat...