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To state the obvious---if nobody was doing the math to get the result that (by certain methodologies) it's a toss-up, we wouldn't know it's a toss-up. Should fo
by caconym_ 2y ago
To state the obvious---if nobody was doing the math to get the result that (by certain methodologies) it's a toss-up, we wouldn't know it's a toss-up. Should forecasters stop publishing results as soon as the needle hits 50/50?
Also, FYI, 538 is no longer using Silver's model. He took it with him when he left.
- RajT88 2y ago538 is now owned by ABC news. To the point of the article, nobody is polling and reporting on polls out of the goodness of their hearts. "Everybody loves a horse race" is the maxim which news sites adhere to - news sites are never going to predict a blowout or landslide, because people will feel secure in the outcome and stop reading the news. Every single news site has an incentive to skew more towards calling the race as evenly matched, because that drives page views. It's a similar talking point to the one about Democratic pollsters not wanting to release their more accurate numbers, because they could lose voter momentum. (Democratic voters love being able to stay home, it seems)
- caconym_ 2y agoI'm not sure what is the relevance of any of this to my comment. Are you suggesting that the mainstream forecasters (Nate Silver, 538, Economist, etc) are intentionally biasing their models toward a toss-up in order to drive page views? I find that very unlikely, not least because from their perspective that will probably actually reduce their page views.