If your friends took that bet, and if "wrong" doesn't mean "more than 5 points off", then they are suckers, since the historical average polling error is 2-4 po

If your friends took that bet, and if "wrong" doesn't mean "more than 5 points off", then they are suckers, since the historical average polling error is 2-4 points, so betting that "the polls are wrong" without picking a direction and magnitude is a gimme.