4 ms·

I smoke a pack a day and I haven't heard of lung cancer. I play the lottery every day and I haven't won a dollar. Etc etc

kaliqt 2y ago
That's not equivalent. You are describing likelihoods in time series, we are discussing the likelihoods of exceptional defects, period. Which is actually low.
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  I ate Boar's Head meat and I didn't get listeria Etc etc The temporal component doesn't matter at all, the point is that an individual's experience is pretty meaningless when trying to understand statistical phenomena. Which is why we invented statistics and do things like "collect data"
rdtsc 2y ago
> I play the lottery every day and I haven't won a dollar The chance of a consumer encountering any of those issues is equivalent to winning the lottery? We should all run and get a cybertruck! :-;
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  No, I'm describing the uselessness of people's individual experiences to describe statistical phenomena
  - rdtsc 2y ago
    But I don't see it a whole lot worse than a forum of users listing all the problem they without having any kind of statistic on exactly how frequent these issues are, per vehicle, per mile driven etc. People who have problems with their cybertruck will go and post about it. Understandably, they are also frustrated, the posts sound angry, and then any journalist can repost/compile all those to make it sound like these are just dumpster fires on wheels. But just as in the lottery case, we never get to hear from every loser, only from the winners; here we don't get to hear from the "winners", only the "losers". I mean they may well be dumpster fires on wheels but without solid statistics it's hard to be sure exactly so any kind of story can be made up about it.
    - llamaimperative 2y ago
      Agreed! More objectively I’m pretttty sure Cybertruck has had an abnormal number of recalls since its introduction, but yeah: we need statistics to make any confident claims.
      - fragmede 2y ago
        It's broken down by component, not vehicle, but NHTSA has actual data. https://datahub.transportation.gov/Automobiles/NHTSA-Recalls-by-Manufacturer/mu99-t4jn https://datahub.transportation.gov/Automobiles/NHTSA-Recalls...
        llamaimperative 2y ago
        I'm sure they do have sufficient data to answer this question, but it's not in what you linked and I'm not going to be diving in to do the analysis myself.
joenot443 2y ago
You're misusing what's otherwise a useful comparison

kaliqt 2y ago

That's not equivalent. You are describing likelihoods in time series, we are discussing the likelihoods of exceptional defects, period. Which is actually low.

llamaimperative 2y ago
I ate Boar's Head meat and I didn't get listeria Etc etc The temporal component doesn't matter at all, the point is that an individual's experience is pretty meaningless when trying to understand statistical phenomena. Which is why we invented statistics and do things like "collect data"

rdtsc 2y ago

> I play the lottery every day and I haven't won a dollar The chance of a consumer encountering any of those issues is equivalent to winning the lottery? We should all run and get a cybertruck! :-;

llamaimperative 2y ago
No, I'm describing the uselessness of people's individual experiences to describe statistical phenomena
- rdtsc 2y ago
  But I don't see it a whole lot worse than a forum of users listing all the problem they without having any kind of statistic on exactly how frequent these issues are, per vehicle, per mile driven etc. People who have problems with their cybertruck will go and post about it. Understandably, they are also frustrated, the posts sound angry, and then any journalist can repost/compile all those to make it sound like these are just dumpster fires on wheels. But just as in the lottery case, we never get to hear from every loser, only from the winners; here we don't get to hear from the "winners", only the "losers". I mean they may well be dumpster fires on wheels but without solid statistics it's hard to be sure exactly so any kind of story can be made up about it.
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    Agreed! More objectively I’m pretttty sure Cybertruck has had an abnormal number of recalls since its introduction, but yeah: we need statistics to make any confident claims.
    - fragmede 2y ago
      It's broken down by component, not vehicle, but NHTSA has actual data. https://datahub.transportation.gov/Automobiles/NHTSA-Recalls-by-Manufacturer/mu99-t4jn https://datahub.transportation.gov/Automobiles/NHTSA-Recalls...
      - llamaimperative 2y ago
        I'm sure they do have sufficient data to answer this question, but it's not in what you linked and I'm not going to be diving in to do the analysis myself.

joenot443 2y ago

You're misusing what's otherwise a useful comparison