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He is, unfortunately, a clear favourite to win. You don't have to have uber-intel to know that.

by bojan 2y ago

w0m 2y ago
clear favorite or coin toss.
- bojan 2y ago
  Clear favourite. It might be a toin coss still at this moment, but the odds are getting ever-so-slightly worse for Kamala for many days in a row now. So it's about the trend. On top of that, the growth of the blue firewall in PA is losing steam too early...
  - eigart 2y ago
    What data brings you to this conclusion? PA firewall is slowing, but it’s not terrible.
    - bojan 2y ago
      Oh how I hate being right sometimes.
  - ajross 2y ago
    Seems like in the language I speak "ever so slightly" and "clear" are in opposition. You can be a clear favorite or a slight favorite. Which is it?
    - bojan 2y ago
      If the odds long enough ever so slightly move toward Trump, he is then in my eyes a clear favourite. It's been going on for three weeks now and we have 10 days to go still. I do hope I'm wrong, but purely looking at the numbers, I don't think I am.
    - bojan 2y ago
      Nope, I wasn't wrong, unfortunately.
maxerickson 2y ago
From my corner of rural Michigan, the relative sentiment shift appears to be massively in favor of Harris. I don't really trust my opinion, and I have a pretty limited perspective on what people in other areas think, but between 2020 and now, there is much increased support for Harris compared to Biden, and much more muted support for Trump 2024 compared to Trump 2020. With the polling mildly in favor of Harris in key states (but within the margin of error), I wonder how you've drawn your conclusion.
- bojan 2y ago
  By following polls, and the way they are trending. And the odds seem to be moving daily towards Trump, and while we're still in coin toss territory, if this trend continues for the next 10 days, it's really looking bad for Harris, despite the shift in your area. If I'm wrong, please let me know, as I'd really like to be proven wrong here.
  - maxerickson 2y ago
    Well, the election is the thing that is going to resolve the question. Polls don't really trend though, they tend to settle. Of course significant news can cause people to reevaluate things, but it's probably the case in this election that most people have already made a pretty conclusive decision.
  - webninja 2y ago
    I don’t think you’re wrong. I think you’re looking at the data and that’s what the data is telling you. Some would present alternative data or say “we’ll see during the election.” But I think the real pushback is due to possible knowledge of the future giving people the burden of temporary anxiety, even if it’s only 9 days away. There are other people who are weary from these elections having gone on for so long now and were long ready for it to all be over months ago. The whole reason for elections and democracy is for the administration and party in power to have a peaceful decent from power. Because without them, in history the only prior means were to overtake the administration by physical force and peaceful descents from power were rare and uncommon. That had the negative ramifications of the power being concentrated by people with the strongest weapons, not the people with the best leadership, governance, and the most care towards it’s own populace, citizens, and constituency. If I’ve answers this in any non-neutral or biased way, please let me know as I’m NPA —- the 3rd largest political affiliation.

He is, unfortunately, a clear favourite to win. You don't have to have uber-intel to know that.

by bojan 2y ago

He is, unfortunately, a clear favourite to win. You don't have to have uber-intel to know that.

w0m 2y ago

clear favorite or coin toss.

bojan 2y ago
Clear favourite. It might be a toin coss still at this moment, but the odds are getting ever-so-slightly worse for Kamala for many days in a row now. So it's about the trend. On top of that, the growth of the blue firewall in PA is losing steam too early...
- eigart 2y ago
  What data brings you to this conclusion? PA firewall is slowing, but it’s not terrible.
  - bojan 2y ago
    Oh how I hate being right sometimes.
- ajross 2y ago
  Seems like in the language I speak "ever so slightly" and "clear" are in opposition. You can be a clear favorite or a slight favorite. Which is it?
  - bojan 2y ago
    If the odds long enough ever so slightly move toward Trump, he is then in my eyes a clear favourite. It's been going on for three weeks now and we have 10 days to go still. I do hope I'm wrong, but purely looking at the numbers, I don't think I am.
  - bojan 2y ago
    Nope, I wasn't wrong, unfortunately.

maxerickson 2y ago

From my corner of rural Michigan, the relative sentiment shift appears to be massively in favor of Harris. I don't really trust my opinion, and I have a pretty limited perspective on what people in other areas think, but between 2020 and now, there is much increased support for Harris compared to Biden, and much more muted support for Trump 2024 compared to Trump 2020. With the polling mildly in favor of Harris in key states (but within the margin of error), I wonder how you've drawn your conclusion.

bojan 2y ago
By following polls, and the way they are trending. And the odds seem to be moving daily towards Trump, and while we're still in coin toss territory, if this trend continues for the next 10 days, it's really looking bad for Harris, despite the shift in your area. If I'm wrong, please let me know, as I'd really like to be proven wrong here.
- maxerickson 2y ago
  Well, the election is the thing that is going to resolve the question. Polls don't really trend though, they tend to settle. Of course significant news can cause people to reevaluate things, but it's probably the case in this election that most people have already made a pretty conclusive decision.
- webninja 2y ago
  I don’t think you’re wrong. I think you’re looking at the data and that’s what the data is telling you. Some would present alternative data or say “we’ll see during the election.” But I think the real pushback is due to possible knowledge of the future giving people the burden of temporary anxiety, even if it’s only 9 days away. There are other people who are weary from these elections having gone on for so long now and were long ready for it to all be over months ago. The whole reason for elections and democracy is for the administration and party in power to have a peaceful decent from power. Because without them, in history the only prior means were to overtake the administration by physical force and peaceful descents from power were rare and uncommon. That had the negative ramifications of the power being concentrated by people with the strongest weapons, not the people with the best leadership, governance, and the most care towards it’s own populace, citizens, and constituency. If I’ve answers this in any non-neutral or biased way, please let me know as I’m NPA —- the 3rd largest political affiliation.