4 ms·

Does Bezos have uber-intel, and knows Trump is going to win?

slater 2y ago
lol... maybe he does? Number of trump signs vs. harris signs bought on Amazon? (yes i know Jeff doesn't work there, but y'know...)
- HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
  Any sign of strength than can be bought (i.e. fake strength), probably already has been bought by Musk and/or others trying for influence the election. They say the sudden betting market swing for Trump from a few weeks ago comes from overseas money (4 people, maybe all the same), but I'd not be surprised if Musk were behind it given that he's out there trying to buy people's votes.
  - webninja 2y ago
    On one hand, overseas money in betting markets has less bias and more neutrality. Example: a man in Australia does not care who wins and is able to see it all as an outsider from above. Regardless of whether he is gay or straight. Foreign politics is not connected to their identity and foreign politics does not map over neatly to domestic politics. You’re able to see this for yourself when you travel to other countries and talk to people you meet about the politics in their country in person. Suddenly, magically, you’re able to see both or all sides and actually listen instead of selectively listen. On the other hand, one would say people closer to the issue are the more informed ones and that’s usually correct. A counter point is people closer to the issue are being targeted by more advertising and usually we associate targeted advertising with causing a populace to become more misinformed rather than more informed. The primary media bias every year is calling elections closer than they actually are. Because if the media outlets and the pollsters they hired said any given election wasn’t close, people would check the news less and the media’s primary customers, the advertisers, would be sad about their ads reaching less eyeballs. What is your opinion about foreign views and foreign bets on foreign elections?
    - HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
      Not sure if you've been following betting action on the US election, but it had closely followed polling up until a few weeks ago, then made a sudden and huge divergence away from polling to "predict" a Trump win. My best guess is that this "betting action" has nothing to do with people trying to make money by betting on who they think will win - given the scale of divergence from polling results, and the speed at which that happened, this seems more like election interference - people spending money trying to influence the outcome. I'd have to guess that in this election it's American citizens who see it more realistically. From afar it might seem obvious that Trump will lose (spouting Nazi rhetoric, killing Roe vs Wade, etc), and he'll obviously lose the popular vote, but you need to be very finely attuned to what's going on in the swing states - especially at ground level - to understand who's going to be more successful getting out the vote, etc. If expert US pollsters like Nate Silver can't get it right, then someone the other side of the world if unlikely to either. Anyways, as said, I don't think this money really is betting action - I expect it's just election interference.
      - Slava_Propanei 2y ago
        [dead]
bojan 2y ago
He is, unfortunately, a clear favourite to win. You don't have to have uber-intel to know that.
- w0m 2y ago
  clear favorite or coin toss.
  - bojan 2y ago
    Clear favourite. It might be a toin coss still at this moment, but the odds are getting ever-so-slightly worse for Kamala for many days in a row now. So it's about the trend. On top of that, the growth of the blue firewall in PA is losing steam too early...
    - eigart 2y ago
      What data brings you to this conclusion? PA firewall is slowing, but it’s not terrible.
      - bojan 2y ago
        Oh how I hate being right sometimes.
    - ajross 2y ago
      Seems like in the language I speak "ever so slightly" and "clear" are in opposition. You can be a clear favorite or a slight favorite. Which is it?
      - bojan 2y ago
        If the odds long enough ever so slightly move toward Trump, he is then in my eyes a clear favourite. It's been going on for three weeks now and we have 10 days to go still. I do hope I'm wrong, but purely looking at the numbers, I don't think I am.
      - 2y ago
Trasmatta 2y ago
Nobody does. It's a tossup, and he's hedging his bets.

lol... maybe he does? Number of trump signs vs. harris signs bought on Amazon? (yes i know Jeff doesn't work there, but y'know...)

HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
Any sign of strength than can be bought (i.e. fake strength), probably already has been bought by Musk and/or others trying for influence the election. They say the sudden betting market swing for Trump from a few weeks ago comes from overseas money (4 people, maybe all the same), but I'd not be surprised if Musk were behind it given that he's out there trying to buy people's votes.
- webninja 2y ago
  On one hand, overseas money in betting markets has less bias and more neutrality. Example: a man in Australia does not care who wins and is able to see it all as an outsider from above. Regardless of whether he is gay or straight. Foreign politics is not connected to their identity and foreign politics does not map over neatly to domestic politics. You’re able to see this for yourself when you travel to other countries and talk to people you meet about the politics in their country in person. Suddenly, magically, you’re able to see both or all sides and actually listen instead of selectively listen. On the other hand, one would say people closer to the issue are the more informed ones and that’s usually correct. A counter point is people closer to the issue are being targeted by more advertising and usually we associate targeted advertising with causing a populace to become more misinformed rather than more informed. The primary media bias every year is calling elections closer than they actually are. Because if the media outlets and the pollsters they hired said any given election wasn’t close, people would check the news less and the media’s primary customers, the advertisers, would be sad about their ads reaching less eyeballs. What is your opinion about foreign views and foreign bets on foreign elections?
  - HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
    Not sure if you've been following betting action on the US election, but it had closely followed polling up until a few weeks ago, then made a sudden and huge divergence away from polling to "predict" a Trump win. My best guess is that this "betting action" has nothing to do with people trying to make money by betting on who they think will win - given the scale of divergence from polling results, and the speed at which that happened, this seems more like election interference - people spending money trying to influence the outcome. I'd have to guess that in this election it's American citizens who see it more realistically. From afar it might seem obvious that Trump will lose (spouting Nazi rhetoric, killing Roe vs Wade, etc), and he'll obviously lose the popular vote, but you need to be very finely attuned to what's going on in the swing states - especially at ground level - to understand who's going to be more successful getting out the vote, etc. If expert US pollsters like Nate Silver can't get it right, then someone the other side of the world if unlikely to either. Anyways, as said, I don't think this money really is betting action - I expect it's just election interference.
    - Slava_Propanei 2y ago
      [dead]

bojan 2y ago

He is, unfortunately, a clear favourite to win. You don't have to have uber-intel to know that.

w0m 2y ago
clear favorite or coin toss.
- bojan 2y ago
  Clear favourite. It might be a toin coss still at this moment, but the odds are getting ever-so-slightly worse for Kamala for many days in a row now. So it's about the trend. On top of that, the growth of the blue firewall in PA is losing steam too early...
  - eigart 2y ago
    What data brings you to this conclusion? PA firewall is slowing, but it’s not terrible.
    - bojan 2y ago
      Oh how I hate being right sometimes.
  - ajross 2y ago
    Seems like in the language I speak "ever so slightly" and "clear" are in opposition. You can be a clear favorite or a slight favorite. Which is it?
    - bojan 2y ago
      If the odds long enough ever so slightly move toward Trump, he is then in my eyes a clear favourite. It's been going on for three weeks now and we have 10 days to go still. I do hope I'm wrong, but purely looking at the numbers, I don't think I am.
    - 2y ago

Trasmatta 2y ago

Nobody does. It's a tossup, and he's hedging his bets.