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California is strongly "blue" on the national issues these days, but that doesn't mean that there aren't hotly contested elections and ballot measures at issue

California is strongly "blue" on the national issues these days, but that doesn't mean that there aren't hotly contested elections and ballot measures at issue within the state. Seperately, it brings potential as a source of funding to spend elsewhere specifically because some of the national questions aren't really open. If you are confident in the ROI, you can run ads there to drive fundraising -- especially early on -- and then spend those raised funds in contested elections elsewhere. The same dynamic happens in soundly "red" markets, although that may not be apparent in this dataset because of the specific demographics of Google advertising.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
johnnyanmac 2y ago
I'm probably going to mail my ballot on Monday. Are there any particular hot button issues in California to look out for?
- Rebelgecko 2y ago
  IMO this year the ballot props are much more meaningful to the average person than usual. The perennial niche prosp about kidney dialysis aren't making a showing for what feels like the first time in a decade. There are some big proposed changes to how local bond measures work, rent control, and the criminal justice system, IMO those are the ones spending the most time researching and considering the consequences. As far as the more niche ones this time around, there's the same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is purely symbolic and doesn't have an actual impact on same sex marriage in California) and the prop designed to force the AIDs Healthcare Foundation to spend more money on AIDS healthcare (IIUC currently they spend most of their money on political causes like lobbying against rezoning that would allow denser housing)
  - SllX 2y ago
    > there's the same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is purely symbolic and doesn't have an actual impact on same sex marriage in California) It removes an on-the-books clause that was rendered inoperable by a SCOTUS decision. I think it’s a step above symbolic since any future changes in SCOTUS jurisprudence reversing or partially reversing Obergefell (which I don’t think are at all likely with this court on this issue, but it doesn’t hurt to be prudent) could make it operable again.
    - Rebelgecko 2y ago
      I think prop 8 was previously nullified by Hollingsworth v. Perry? Not saying it'll never matter, but if OP has a finite amount of focus IMO it's better to spend it on laws that will have an immediate impact over ones that require multiple hypotheticals to come into play
      - swatcoder 2y ago
        > Finite amount of focus. It revises one statement in the state constitution in a very straightforward way. It takes an infintessimal amount of focus to decide if you're in favor of that change or not. Whether the reason it's on this year's ballot is neurotic or strategic is on a level with whether you should buy 4 or 6 rolls of toilet paper next time you're at the store. You already know if you need toilet paper or not, so that difference is relatively inconsequential.
      - SllX 2y ago
        > I think prop 8 was previously nullified by Hollingsworth v. Perry? Looks like it. That decision came down around the first time I excised the daily news from my life after spending too many years as a news junkie and before I valued reading court opinions so I missed it. Re: Focus: Most ballot measures that have ever appeared on the ballot aren’t worth the paper they were printed on, yet they’re still there. Short of eliminating the popular ballot initiative process—something I could get behind—we’re long past the point of asking whether something is “worth” voting on for a reason like that. Someone wanted it on the ballot badly enough to make it happen and by our own laws that’s basically their right, so it’s on the ballot. Just like the mofos who always try to get that dumb kidney dialysis measure passed almost every election cycle.
  - GeneralMayhem 2y ago
    > same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is purely symbolic... Same-sex marriage is currently outlawed by the California constitution as a result of Prop 8 from 2008. That clause is void as a result of the Hollingsworth and Obergefell decisions, but there are multiple members of the Supreme Court who have explicitly said that they would like to overturn Obergefell, so it's a good idea to get ahead of the potential catastrophe by taking the bad law fully off the books, rather than relying on a capricious and extremist court to stick to a rights-defending decision for any amount of time.
    - triceratops 2y ago
      Doesn't the Respect for Marriage Act [1] ensure they can't roll back same-sex marriage like they did abortion? 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > Doesn't the Respect for Marriage Act [1] ensure they can't roll back same-sex marriage like they did abortion? No. RMA lets states ban gay marriage. It just requires them to honour other states' gay marriages.
        triceratops 2y ago
        Thanks for the clarification. I still wonder if it matters all that much. You only need one state to allow non-residents to marry on Zoom, and it's a non-issue in practical terms. States banning same-sex marriage within their borders takes away the dignity and respect of same-sex marriages and couples, so it's quite awful. But they can't actively prosecute people for crossing state lines to marry. They have to provide them the same rights as hetero-married couples, even for things like state benefits and taxes.
        troad 2y ago
        > I still wonder if it matters all that much. It's a daily reminder that you're a second class citizen, that your family isn't really a family worth respecting. It matters a great deal. Imagine a state prohibiting mixed race marriage, and saying "oh it doesn't really matter" because unlawful mixed race couplings can always drive over the state lines somewhere. It's spit on your face on one of the most important days of your life.
tivert 2y ago
> Seperately, it brings potential as a source of funding to spend elsewhere specifically because some of the national questions aren't really open. If you are confident in the ROI, you can run ads there to drive fundraising -- especially early on -- and then spend those raised funds in contested elections elsewhere. Exactly. A lot of the ads are fundraising ads, like this one: https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR05941226061533544449/creative/CR15423651937064583169?region=US&topic=political&start-date=2024-06-27&end-date=2024-06-27&format=VIDEO&platform=YOUTUBE https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR059412260615...

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

johnnyanmac 2y ago

I'm probably going to mail my ballot on Monday. Are there any particular hot button issues in California to look out for?

Rebelgecko 2y ago
IMO this year the ballot props are much more meaningful to the average person than usual. The perennial niche prosp about kidney dialysis aren't making a showing for what feels like the first time in a decade. There are some big proposed changes to how local bond measures work, rent control, and the criminal justice system, IMO those are the ones spending the most time researching and considering the consequences. As far as the more niche ones this time around, there's the same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is purely symbolic and doesn't have an actual impact on same sex marriage in California) and the prop designed to force the AIDs Healthcare Foundation to spend more money on AIDS healthcare (IIUC currently they spend most of their money on political causes like lobbying against rezoning that would allow denser housing)
- SllX 2y ago
  > there's the same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is purely symbolic and doesn't have an actual impact on same sex marriage in California) It removes an on-the-books clause that was rendered inoperable by a SCOTUS decision. I think it’s a step above symbolic since any future changes in SCOTUS jurisprudence reversing or partially reversing Obergefell (which I don’t think are at all likely with this court on this issue, but it doesn’t hurt to be prudent) could make it operable again.
  - Rebelgecko 2y ago
    I think prop 8 was previously nullified by Hollingsworth v. Perry? Not saying it'll never matter, but if OP has a finite amount of focus IMO it's better to spend it on laws that will have an immediate impact over ones that require multiple hypotheticals to come into play
    - swatcoder 2y ago
      > Finite amount of focus. It revises one statement in the state constitution in a very straightforward way. It takes an infintessimal amount of focus to decide if you're in favor of that change or not. Whether the reason it's on this year's ballot is neurotic or strategic is on a level with whether you should buy 4 or 6 rolls of toilet paper next time you're at the store. You already know if you need toilet paper or not, so that difference is relatively inconsequential.
    - SllX 2y ago
      > I think prop 8 was previously nullified by Hollingsworth v. Perry? Looks like it. That decision came down around the first time I excised the daily news from my life after spending too many years as a news junkie and before I valued reading court opinions so I missed it. Re: Focus: Most ballot measures that have ever appeared on the ballot aren’t worth the paper they were printed on, yet they’re still there. Short of eliminating the popular ballot initiative process—something I could get behind—we’re long past the point of asking whether something is “worth” voting on for a reason like that. Someone wanted it on the ballot badly enough to make it happen and by our own laws that’s basically their right, so it’s on the ballot. Just like the mofos who always try to get that dumb kidney dialysis measure passed almost every election cycle.
- GeneralMayhem 2y ago
  > same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is purely symbolic... Same-sex marriage is currently outlawed by the California constitution as a result of Prop 8 from 2008. That clause is void as a result of the Hollingsworth and Obergefell decisions, but there are multiple members of the Supreme Court who have explicitly said that they would like to overturn Obergefell, so it's a good idea to get ahead of the potential catastrophe by taking the bad law fully off the books, rather than relying on a capricious and extremist court to stick to a rights-defending decision for any amount of time.
  - triceratops 2y ago
    Doesn't the Respect for Marriage Act [1] ensure they can't roll back same-sex marriage like they did abortion? 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Doesn't the Respect for Marriage Act [1] ensure they can't roll back same-sex marriage like they did abortion? No. RMA lets states ban gay marriage. It just requires them to honour other states' gay marriages.
      - triceratops 2y ago
        Thanks for the clarification. I still wonder if it matters all that much. You only need one state to allow non-residents to marry on Zoom, and it's a non-issue in practical terms. States banning same-sex marriage within their borders takes away the dignity and respect of same-sex marriages and couples, so it's quite awful. But they can't actively prosecute people for crossing state lines to marry. They have to provide them the same rights as hetero-married couples, even for things like state benefits and taxes.
        troad 2y ago
        > I still wonder if it matters all that much. It's a daily reminder that you're a second class citizen, that your family isn't really a family worth respecting. It matters a great deal. Imagine a state prohibiting mixed race marriage, and saying "oh it doesn't really matter" because unlawful mixed race couplings can always drive over the state lines somewhere. It's spit on your face on one of the most important days of your life.

tivert 2y ago

> Seperately, it brings potential as a source of funding to spend elsewhere specifically because some of the national questions aren't really open. If you are confident in the ROI, you can run ads there to drive fundraising -- especially early on -- and then spend those raised funds in contested elections elsewhere. Exactly. A lot of the ads are fundraising ads, like this one: https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR05941226061533544449/creative/CR15423651937064583169?region=US&topic=political&start-date=2024-06-27&end-date=2024-06-27&format=VIDEO&platform=YOUTUBE https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR059412260615...