5 ms·

> that's still only $100MM in annual revenue. Given how fast Waymo is scaling, we should look at forward revenue projections, if available. Also, when it comes

> that's still only $100MM in annual revenue. Given how fast Waymo is scaling, we should look at forward revenue projections, if available. Also, when it comes to TAM, Uber is a good standard to compare against. In Q2 2024[1], Uber had - 10.7B revenue (42.8B ARR), out of which 6.134B (24.5B ARR) was from "mobility" and others from delivery/freight. - Real fun part: Gross booking revenue for mobility was 20.554B, but revenue for Uber itself was 6.134B, or 30% of gross revenue. If 70% is going to drivers, that is Waymo's opportunity. It can price at 40% discount to Uber's prices while still reaping twice the revenue per ride. Start with the most lucrative markets where Uber is already profitable and expand from there. [1] https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_earnings/2024/q2/earnings-result/Uber-Q2-24-Earnings-Press-Release.pdf https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_earnings/2024/q2/e...

lokar 2y ago
The drivers cut covers the capital cost of the car, maintenance and fuel. Not just labor.
- bb88 2y ago
  Consumer cars really aren't meant to last over 100k miles. I know a lot of uber drivers will put 30k miles or more on per year. Also if a car becomes a standard widget made to be easily repairable with parts that are standard widgets, repairs and maintenance would be cheaper. E.g. If you needed to clean the carpet in a vehicle, make the carpet easily removable and washable in an industrial washing machine.
  - triceratops 2y ago
    > Consumer cars really aren't meant to last over 100k miles What on earth are you talking about? A Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla will easily last 200k miles. In places with salt and rust, the body will probably fall apart before the engine and transmission give out.
    - SapporoChris 2y ago
      "Many non-commercial vehicles (both auto and truck) have exceeded 1,000,000 miles (1,600,000 km). For instance, in 2013, East Patchogue, New York resident Irv Gordon (1940-2018) had accumulated 3,000,000 miles (4,800,000 km) in his 1966 Volvo P1800. The car had amassed 3,200,000 miles (5,100,000 km) by Gordon's death on 15 November 2018." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity https://autos.yahoo.com/news/the-first-car-to-3-million-miles-.html https://autos.yahoo.com/news/the-first-car-to-3-million-mile... Honestly, I'd not use the word many, perhaps a significant number....
      - triceratops 2y ago
        Parent said 100k miles. I agree that 1m miles is much rarer.
    - mbrumlow 2y ago
      Then why do those cars not come with a standard 100k warranty?
      - triceratops 2y ago
        To quote Charles Babbage "I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question". Does everything you buy keel over and die the minute its warranty is over? Do you throw away your car the first time it needs a repair?
        mbrumlow 2y ago
        It’s not the hard. Put your stupid quote away and use your brain. Warrantees are designed to instill confidence. It’s a product differentiation add on. Our cars are so good we will guarantee it with fixing anything that breaks within a specific amount of time. When a customer looks at two options a longer warrantee could be the deciding factor. Naturally. Cars do break. And thus there is a curve to how long of warrantee a car manufacturer can be before it cost them more to offer it. As such they are currently just long enough that they take max profit. The length is directly tied to how well the car is made and market conditions. A car company whose cars start to fall apart at 20k miles can’t offer a warrantee for 30k miles without going out of business. But they may offer one for 5k, safely within range their cars exhibit no issues. So. If I was a car manufacturer and my cars lasted 200k miles on average. I would be inclined to provide a warrantee for 100k, even more so if my competitors could only offer 30k. You can see this in action with certified pre owned cars. And in some cases where EV batteries were under warranties for 100k miles. Cars on average don’t last 300 and 400k. Even if some people have had some do so. In such these companies don’t offer long warrantee periods. So yes. Your car starts to fall apart sometime after the warranty. Bringing out outliners adds no value to this conversation.
fragmede 2y ago
Waymo has to recoup their research costs which are far from trivial, so I doubt prices will drop. Futhermore, there's an agreement for Uber to run the Waymo's in their app, futher complicating the calculus https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2024/Uber-and-Waymo-Expand-Partnership-to-Bring-Autonomous-Ride-Hailing-to-Austin-and-Atlanta/default.aspx https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-det...

lokar 2y ago

The drivers cut covers the capital cost of the car, maintenance and fuel. Not just labor.

bb88 2y ago
Consumer cars really aren't meant to last over 100k miles. I know a lot of uber drivers will put 30k miles or more on per year. Also if a car becomes a standard widget made to be easily repairable with parts that are standard widgets, repairs and maintenance would be cheaper. E.g. If you needed to clean the carpet in a vehicle, make the carpet easily removable and washable in an industrial washing machine.
- triceratops 2y ago
  > Consumer cars really aren't meant to last over 100k miles What on earth are you talking about? A Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla will easily last 200k miles. In places with salt and rust, the body will probably fall apart before the engine and transmission give out.
  - SapporoChris 2y ago
    "Many non-commercial vehicles (both auto and truck) have exceeded 1,000,000 miles (1,600,000 km). For instance, in 2013, East Patchogue, New York resident Irv Gordon (1940-2018) had accumulated 3,000,000 miles (4,800,000 km) in his 1966 Volvo P1800. The car had amassed 3,200,000 miles (5,100,000 km) by Gordon's death on 15 November 2018." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity https://autos.yahoo.com/news/the-first-car-to-3-million-miles-.html https://autos.yahoo.com/news/the-first-car-to-3-million-mile... Honestly, I'd not use the word many, perhaps a significant number....
    - triceratops 2y ago
      Parent said 100k miles. I agree that 1m miles is much rarer.
  - mbrumlow 2y ago
    Then why do those cars not come with a standard 100k warranty?
    - triceratops 2y ago
      To quote Charles Babbage "I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question". Does everything you buy keel over and die the minute its warranty is over? Do you throw away your car the first time it needs a repair?
      - mbrumlow 2y ago
        It’s not the hard. Put your stupid quote away and use your brain. Warrantees are designed to instill confidence. It’s a product differentiation add on. Our cars are so good we will guarantee it with fixing anything that breaks within a specific amount of time. When a customer looks at two options a longer warrantee could be the deciding factor. Naturally. Cars do break. And thus there is a curve to how long of warrantee a car manufacturer can be before it cost them more to offer it. As such they are currently just long enough that they take max profit. The length is directly tied to how well the car is made and market conditions. A car company whose cars start to fall apart at 20k miles can’t offer a warrantee for 30k miles without going out of business. But they may offer one for 5k, safely within range their cars exhibit no issues. So. If I was a car manufacturer and my cars lasted 200k miles on average. I would be inclined to provide a warrantee for 100k, even more so if my competitors could only offer 30k. You can see this in action with certified pre owned cars. And in some cases where EV batteries were under warranties for 100k miles. Cars on average don’t last 300 and 400k. Even if some people have had some do so. In such these companies don’t offer long warrantee periods. So yes. Your car starts to fall apart sometime after the warranty. Bringing out outliners adds no value to this conversation.

fragmede 2y ago

Waymo has to recoup their research costs which are far from trivial, so I doubt prices will drop. Futhermore, there's an agreement for Uber to run the Waymo's in their app, futher complicating the calculus https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2024/Uber-and-Waymo-Expand-Partnership-to-Bring-Autonomous-Ride-Hailing-to-Austin-and-Atlanta/default.aspx https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-det...