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They're doing 100k paid trips/wk now, per the CEO in a recent LinkedIn post. If average trip value is (very generously) $20, that's still only $100MM in annual
by ketzo 2y ago
They're doing 100k paid trips/wk now, per the CEO in a recent LinkedIn post. If average trip value is (very generously) $20, that's still only $100MM in annual revenue. I would bet that doesn't even pay for the direct physical + digital costs of operating the cars, let alone salaries, office leases, etc.
Waymo has started onto a very good trendline now, for sure, and a path to revenue-positive is becoming clearer. But they have a loooooooong way to go before they are offsetting even their operating costs, let alone beginning to pay down their (absolutely massive) fixed costs.
I think the bear case is actually pretty tough for Waymo. Their scaling is not cheap.
- The cars are, by all account, expensive as hell; I've seen $200k+
- The cars require ongoing cleaning, maintenance, mechanical work
- There's a massive customer support operation; not just people to call for support when your car gets stuck, but people who can step in and remote-instruct the vehicle.
- Expanding to a new city requires a massive data-gathering operation before any paid trips can begin.
None of this is taking into account the massive fixed costs that come with being a tech company - hundreds of $400k+TC employees, server bills in the tens of millions, thousands of top-of-the-line GPUs for training clusters.
- bryanlarsen 2y agoWith 700 cars, 100MM is $140K per car per year so that should be covering direct car non-employee expenses.
- RestlessMind 2y ago> that's still only $100MM in annual revenue. Given how fast Waymo is scaling, we should look at forward revenue projections, if available. Also, when it comes to TAM, Uber is a good standard to compare against. In Q2 2024[1], Uber had - 10.7B revenue (42.8B ARR), out of which 6.134B (24.5B ARR) was from "mobility" and others from delivery/freight. - Real fun part: Gross booking revenue for mobility was 20.554B, but revenue for Uber itself was 6.134B, or 30% of gross revenue. If 70% is going to drivers, that is Waymo's opportunity. It can price at 40% discount to Uber's prices while still reaping twice the revenue per ride. Start with the most lucrative markets where Uber is already profitable and expand from there. [1] https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_earnings/2024/q2/earnings-result/Uber-Q2-24-Earnings-Press-Release.pdf https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_earnings/2024/q2/e...
- lokar 2y agoThe drivers cut covers the capital cost of the car, maintenance and fuel. Not just labor.
- bb88 2y agoConsumer cars really aren't meant to last over 100k miles. I know a lot of uber drivers will put 30k miles or more on per year. Also if a car becomes a standard widget made to be easily repairable with parts that are standard widgets, repairs and maintenance would be cheaper. E.g. If you needed to clean the carpet in a vehicle, make the carpet easily removable and washable in an industrial washing machine.
- triceratops 2y ago> Consumer cars really aren't meant to last over 100k miles What on earth are you talking about? A Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla will easily last 200k miles. In places with salt and rust, the body will probably fall apart before the engine and transmission give out.
- SapporoChris 2y ago"Many non-commercial vehicles (both auto and truck) have exceeded 1,000,000 miles (1,600,000 km). For instance, in 2013, East Patchogue, New York resident Irv Gordon (1940-2018) had accumulated 3,000,000 miles (4,800,000 km) in his 1966 Volvo P1800. The car had amassed 3,200,000 miles (5,100,000 km) by Gordon's death on 15 November 2018." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity https://autos.yahoo.com/news/the-first-car-to-3-million-miles-.html https://autos.yahoo.com/news/the-first-car-to-3-million-mile... Honestly, I'd not use the word many, perhaps a significant number....
- triceratops 2y agoParent said 100k miles. I agree that 1m miles is much rarer.
- georgeplusplus 2y ago[dead]