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Outsourcing is indeed a force pushing against doctor power. This just means that radiologists are already under attack and may feel cornered, so they are on the

Outsourcing is indeed a force pushing against doctor power. This just means that radiologists are already under attack and may feel cornered, so they are on the defensive. I'm not saying automation won't ever happen. But it will need to be slow, as to allow the elite doctor dynasties to recalibrate which specialties to send their kids to, and not to disrupt the already practicing ones. So Hinton's timeline was overly optimistic due to thinking only in terms of the tech. It will happen, but on a longer timescale, maybe a generation or so.

alephnerd 2y ago
> But it will need to be slow, as to allow the elite doctor dynasties to recalibrate which specialties to send their kids to, and not to disrupt the already practicing ones That's not how much of medicine from a business standpoint is run anymore. Managed Service Organizations (MSOs) and PE consolidation has become the norm for much of the medical industry now because the running a medical practice AND practicing medicine at the same time is hard. Managing insurance billing, patient records, regulatory paperwork, payroll, etc is an additional 20-30 hours of work on top of practicing as a doctor (which is around 30-50 hours as well). Due to this, single practitioner clinics or partnership models get sold off and the doctor themselves gets a payout plus gets treated as an employee. > It will happen, but on a longer timescale, maybe a generation or so I agree with you that a lot of AI/ML application timelines are overhyped, but in Radiology specifically the transition has already started happening. The outsourced imaging model has been the norm for almost 30 years now, and most of the players in this space began funding or acquiring startups in this space a decade ago already. Is 100% automation in the next 5 to 10 years realistic? Absolutely not! Is 30-50% automation realistic? I'd say so.

alephnerd 2y ago

> But it will need to be slow, as to allow the elite doctor dynasties to recalibrate which specialties to send their kids to, and not to disrupt the already practicing ones That's not how much of medicine from a business standpoint is run anymore. Managed Service Organizations (MSOs) and PE consolidation has become the norm for much of the medical industry now because the running a medical practice AND practicing medicine at the same time is hard. Managing insurance billing, patient records, regulatory paperwork, payroll, etc is an additional 20-30 hours of work on top of practicing as a doctor (which is around 30-50 hours as well). Due to this, single practitioner clinics or partnership models get sold off and the doctor themselves gets a payout plus gets treated as an employee. > It will happen, but on a longer timescale, maybe a generation or so I agree with you that a lot of AI/ML application timelines are overhyped, but in Radiology specifically the transition has already started happening. The outsourced imaging model has been the norm for almost 30 years now, and most of the players in this space began funding or acquiring startups in this space a decade ago already. Is 100% automation in the next 5 to 10 years realistic? Absolutely not! Is 30-50% automation realistic? I'd say so.