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> Radiology won't be among the first applications to be automated Radiology and a lot of other clinical labwork is heavily outsourced already, and has been for

> Radiology won't be among the first applications to be automated Radiology and a lot of other clinical labwork is heavily outsourced already, and has been for decades [0][1]. Much of the analysis and diagnosis is already done by doctors in India and Pakistan before being returned to the hospitals in the West. In fact, this is how Apollo Group and Fortis Health (two of India and Asia's largest health groups) expanded rapidly in the 2000s. It's the back office teleradiology firms that are the target customers for Radiology Agents, and in some cases are funding or acquiring startups in the space already. This has been an ongoing saga for over a decade now. [0] - https://www.jacr.org/article/S1546-1440(04)00466-1/fulltext https://www.jacr.org/article/S1546-1440(04)00466-1/fulltext [1] - https://www.reuters.com/article/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/teleradiology-paves-way-for-remote-medicine-idUSTRE49E019/ https://www.reuters.com/article/business/healthcare-pharmace...

Galanwe 2y ago
Very counter-intuitive, yet after reading the sources definitely factual. Thanks for pointing that out.
moralestapia 2y ago
Yeah, that's cool. But it's not automation. GP's point is that it will be really hard to take the specialist out of this process, mainly because of regulatory issues.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  The point is, if you can substitute even 30-50% of the headcount used in initial diagnostics and analysis, you're profit margins grow exponentially. The customers for these kinds of Radiology Agents are the teleradiology and clinical labwork companies, as well as MSOs and Health Groups looking to cut outside spend by bringing some subset back in-house. 100% automation is unrealistic for a generation, but 30-50% of teleradiology and clinical labwork headcount being replaced by CV applications is absolutely realistic. A lot of players that entered the telemedicine segment during the COVID pandemic and lockdown have begun the pivot into this space, as well as the new-gen MSOs as well as legacy telemedicine organizations (eg. Apollo, Fortis). (Also, why are you getting downvoted? You brought up a valid point of contention)
  - moralestapia 2y ago
    That's true. You may always need to keep one or two guys in there but they will be able to do 20x more with the same effort. Definitely plausible.
bonoboTP 2y ago
Outsourcing is indeed a force pushing against doctor power. This just means that radiologists are already under attack and may feel cornered, so they are on the defensive. I'm not saying automation won't ever happen. But it will need to be slow, as to allow the elite doctor dynasties to recalibrate which specialties to send their kids to, and not to disrupt the already practicing ones. So Hinton's timeline was overly optimistic due to thinking only in terms of the tech. It will happen, but on a longer timescale, maybe a generation or so.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > But it will need to be slow, as to allow the elite doctor dynasties to recalibrate which specialties to send their kids to, and not to disrupt the already practicing ones That's not how much of medicine from a business standpoint is run anymore. Managed Service Organizations (MSOs) and PE consolidation has become the norm for much of the medical industry now because the running a medical practice AND practicing medicine at the same time is hard. Managing insurance billing, patient records, regulatory paperwork, payroll, etc is an additional 20-30 hours of work on top of practicing as a doctor (which is around 30-50 hours as well). Due to this, single practitioner clinics or partnership models get sold off and the doctor themselves gets a payout plus gets treated as an employee. > It will happen, but on a longer timescale, maybe a generation or so I agree with you that a lot of AI/ML application timelines are overhyped, but in Radiology specifically the transition has already started happening. The outsourced imaging model has been the norm for almost 30 years now, and most of the players in this space began funding or acquiring startups in this space a decade ago already. Is 100% automation in the next 5 to 10 years realistic? Absolutely not! Is 30-50% automation realistic? I'd say so.

Galanwe 2y ago

Very counter-intuitive, yet after reading the sources definitely factual. Thanks for pointing that out.

moralestapia 2y ago

Yeah, that's cool. But it's not automation. GP's point is that it will be really hard to take the specialist out of this process, mainly because of regulatory issues.

alephnerd 2y ago
The point is, if you can substitute even 30-50% of the headcount used in initial diagnostics and analysis, you're profit margins grow exponentially. The customers for these kinds of Radiology Agents are the teleradiology and clinical labwork companies, as well as MSOs and Health Groups looking to cut outside spend by bringing some subset back in-house. 100% automation is unrealistic for a generation, but 30-50% of teleradiology and clinical labwork headcount being replaced by CV applications is absolutely realistic. A lot of players that entered the telemedicine segment during the COVID pandemic and lockdown have begun the pivot into this space, as well as the new-gen MSOs as well as legacy telemedicine organizations (eg. Apollo, Fortis). (Also, why are you getting downvoted? You brought up a valid point of contention)
- moralestapia 2y ago
  That's true. You may always need to keep one or two guys in there but they will be able to do 20x more with the same effort. Definitely plausible.

bonoboTP 2y ago

Outsourcing is indeed a force pushing against doctor power. This just means that radiologists are already under attack and may feel cornered, so they are on the defensive. I'm not saying automation won't ever happen. But it will need to be slow, as to allow the elite doctor dynasties to recalibrate which specialties to send their kids to, and not to disrupt the already practicing ones. So Hinton's timeline was overly optimistic due to thinking only in terms of the tech. It will happen, but on a longer timescale, maybe a generation or so.

alephnerd 2y ago
> But it will need to be slow, as to allow the elite doctor dynasties to recalibrate which specialties to send their kids to, and not to disrupt the already practicing ones That's not how much of medicine from a business standpoint is run anymore. Managed Service Organizations (MSOs) and PE consolidation has become the norm for much of the medical industry now because the running a medical practice AND practicing medicine at the same time is hard. Managing insurance billing, patient records, regulatory paperwork, payroll, etc is an additional 20-30 hours of work on top of practicing as a doctor (which is around 30-50 hours as well). Due to this, single practitioner clinics or partnership models get sold off and the doctor themselves gets a payout plus gets treated as an employee. > It will happen, but on a longer timescale, maybe a generation or so I agree with you that a lot of AI/ML application timelines are overhyped, but in Radiology specifically the transition has already started happening. The outsourced imaging model has been the norm for almost 30 years now, and most of the players in this space began funding or acquiring startups in this space a decade ago already. Is 100% automation in the next 5 to 10 years realistic? Absolutely not! Is 30-50% automation realistic? I'd say so.