4 ms·

> Extrapolating in a linear fashion, AI will do the last 10-20% in a few months or maybe a couple years That's a hefty assumption, especially if you're includi

> Extrapolating in a linear fashion, AI will do the last 10-20% in a few months or maybe a couple years That's a hefty assumption, especially if you're including accuracy.

hnthrowaway6543 2y ago
> That's a hefty assumption, especially if you're including accuracy. That's exactly what the comment is saying. People see AI do 80% of a task and assume development speed will follow a linear trend and the last 20% will get done relatively quickly. The reality is the last 20% is hard-to-impossible. Prime example is self-driving vehicles, which have been 80% done and 5 years away for the past 15 years. (It actually looks further than 5 years away now that we know throwing more training data at the problem doesn't fix it.)
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  We are at 95 percent now for self driving. I regularly use Waymo robot cars in sf. No driver. The gap is now just scaling. Take what is 100% complete in one city and do it in another city. Problem was solved… you just missed the boat.
  - hnthrowaway6543 2y ago
    Waymo barely works, with 24/7 monitoring by humans in a "fleet response" center[0], in 4 cities in the world. That's only 95% done if you're counting good enough for government work. [0] https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/ https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/
    - soco 2y ago
      The monitoring might be 24/7 but its reaction time is nothing usable in a life-and-death situation. Or I just cannot imagine a human being notified "I think I'm crashing into something" and able to take over and do anything of significance within that second to avoid the crash (except hitting on the brakes which the car could do just as well). So don't read too much into the response team, it has definitely its use but won't save you from plunging into that sinkhole who just appeared.
bdndndndbve 2y ago
OP is being facetious, the "last 20%" is a common saying implying that you've back-loaded the hard part of a task.
rsynnott 2y ago
That's their point, I think; since the 50s or so, people have been making this mistake about AI and AI-adjacent things, and it never really plays out. That last '10%' often proves to be _impossible_, or at best very difficult; you could argue that OCR has managed it, finally, at least for simple cases, but it took about 40 years, say.

> Extrapolating in a linear fashion, AI will do the last 10-20% in a few months or maybe a couple years That's a hefty assumption, especially if you're including accuracy.

hnthrowaway6543 2y ago

> That's a hefty assumption, especially if you're including accuracy. That's exactly what the comment is saying. People see AI do 80% of a task and assume development speed will follow a linear trend and the last 20% will get done relatively quickly. The reality is the last 20% is hard-to-impossible. Prime example is self-driving vehicles, which have been 80% done and 5 years away for the past 15 years. (It actually looks further than 5 years away now that we know throwing more training data at the problem doesn't fix it.)

ninetyninenine 2y ago
We are at 95 percent now for self driving. I regularly use Waymo robot cars in sf. No driver. The gap is now just scaling. Take what is 100% complete in one city and do it in another city. Problem was solved… you just missed the boat.
- hnthrowaway6543 2y ago
  Waymo barely works, with 24/7 monitoring by humans in a "fleet response" center[0], in 4 cities in the world. That's only 95% done if you're counting good enough for government work. [0] https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/ https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/
  - soco 2y ago
    The monitoring might be 24/7 but its reaction time is nothing usable in a life-and-death situation. Or I just cannot imagine a human being notified "I think I'm crashing into something" and able to take over and do anything of significance within that second to avoid the crash (except hitting on the brakes which the car could do just as well). So don't read too much into the response team, it has definitely its use but won't save you from plunging into that sinkhole who just appeared.

bdndndndbve 2y ago

OP is being facetious, the "last 20%" is a common saying implying that you've back-loaded the hard part of a task.

rsynnott 2y ago

That's their point, I think; since the 50s or so, people have been making this mistake about AI and AI-adjacent things, and it never really plays out. That last '10%' often proves to be _impossible_, or at best very difficult; you could argue that OCR has managed it, finally, at least for simple cases, but it took about 40 years, say.