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Russia's nuclear arsenal made and makes the idea of conquering Russia by force absolutely impossible to contemplate. The US and others pursued the objectives of

Russia's nuclear arsenal made and makes the idea of conquering Russia by force absolutely impossible to contemplate. The US and others pursued the objectives of military strength, normalized relations with Russia, and decreasing its influence with its neighbors and proxies. The goals are obvious, open, and benign. Everyone wants a Russia that is stable, economically entwined with limited influence on their neighbors beyond economic ties. No tendrils of malevolent influence or proxies. The only way this devolves into actual force is Russia making war on its neighbors which gives others permission and reason to wage proxy war with Russia and reason to cut its economic ties. Only Russia could possibly have destabilized this situation. Only Russia could have been stupid enough to believe this would be a profitable adventure and only Russia can solve this by fucking off to their own country after which they can negotiate a return to stability. Once this misadventure is over once again nobody will invade Russia because nobody wants to initiate nuclear Armageddon. The only real risk to this return to stability is again Russia. It's possible that should it continue long enough its impoverishment, diminishment of internal perception of strength and military power, and anger at at the regime responsible for sending so many Russians to die should cause internal splintering. If you want to talk about "Domino theory" let us imagine a three foot tall domino surrounded by normal size dominos with Putin standing next to it kicking the giant domino for no reason. Russia was always safe from everyone but Russia.

nataliste 2y ago
Your argument that Russia is solely responsible for destabilizing the region mirrors a familiar rhetorical pattern seen throughout history, where weaker powers are trapped in a Kafka trap[1]. Any resistance or reaction by the weaker side justifies further aggression from the stronger power, leading to their gradual erosion and disappearance through salami slicing tactics[2]. Whether through territorial encroachment or strategic isolation, the larger power frames its actions as purely defensive while the weaker party’s responses are cast as irrational or self-destructive. For historical examples, you can look at Carthage under the Romans prior to the Third Punic War, the Saxons under the Normans after Hastings, or the Native Americans under the United States. There are others. For contemporary examples, you can look at the Palestinians under the Israelis (or the Israelis not-quite-under the Arab world) or even the Ukrainians themselves under the Russians! In each of these struggles, the dominant hegemon and its allies want a dominated rival that is "stable, economically entwined with limited influence on their neighbors beyond economic ties. No tendrils of malevolent influence or proxies." Which is to say, totally compliant with their controller and inert as a geopolitical force as they are salami sliced at will. Russia's response to NATO's expansion is a contemporary example of this. Much like other weaker states in history facing incremental encroachment, Russia is blamed for destabilizing the region, while the more powerful actors continue policies that provoke and escalate the situation. The expectation that the weaker side alone should de-escalate or withdraw ignores the external pressures that limit their autonomy and drive their actions. These narratives are almost always self-serving and oversimplify the situation by placing full responsibility on the weaker party, masking the larger power dynamics at play. Throughout history, dominant states have used this framing to justify the gradual weakening and containment of their adversaries, presenting their own expansionist or aggressive strategies as benign or defensive while shifting the blame onto those they are dismantling. All I'm saying is these narratives of "I'm purely defensively containing you so I can eliminate you" are ubiquitous throughout history, but the best of those in the dominant position still understood that it was an ignoble lie even as they struggled against and were dragged along by them. The world would likely be healthier if we emulated them rather than those that always claim that their enemies are historically unlrecedented and uniquely Very Bad Persons[3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_salami_slicing_strategy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_salami_slicing_strateg... [2] https://dangerousintersection.org/2020/06/25/recognizing-and-escaping-from-kafka-traps/ https://dangerousintersection.org/2020/06/25/recognizing-and... [3] https://youtube.com/watch?v=HLNhPMQnWu4 https://youtube.com/watch?v=HLNhPMQnWu4
- distances 2y ago
  This is a very US centric take. NATO isn't expanding to increase US power over Russia. Independent, self-determined countries seek to join NATO to bolster their defense against the local aggressive neighbour. This should be very clear when you consider how NATO has expanded: not by US invitation to join them, but rather by Russian neighbours seeking an alliance to finally rid themselves of the threat. > Russia's response to NATO's expansion is a contemporary example of this So this is what you got backwards. Just consider latest members, Finland and Sweden. Neither had any immediate plans to join before the war, but the bitter truth is that no neighbour of Russia is safe without an alliance providing a decisive military superiority.
  - nataliste 2y ago
    I agree it is a US-centric take, but I disagree that the expansion of NATO is not principally about expanding American power. John Bolton, in 1994, said about the UN: “There is no such thing as the United Nations. There is an international community that occasionally can be led by the only real power left in the world and that is the United States when it suits our interest and we can get others to go along.'[1] I think you could replace the UN with NATO and wouldn't lose much nuance. John Bolton, like Victoria Nuland and her husband Robert Kagan, have been determining foreign policy in American administrations for the last thirty years, from the collapse of the USSR to its resurgence as Putin's revanchist state. The published attitudes of Nuland, Kagan, and Bolton (not including hot mic moments like Nuland's "fuck the EU" tape) towards the EU, the UN, and NATO are almost, if not categorically hostile when it comes at the expense of American hegemony. It's also why the ICC has no real power in the West. As far as Sweden and Finland go, yes, their flight into NATO's arms was catalyzed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, yes, but this is also perfectly suited to the longterm geopolitical aims of the United States, whether it happened immediately, as it did, or if they were included in a future wave of NATO members. That's the nature of salami slicing tactics. You don't need to move fast, as your opponent doesn't have the capacity to ever stop you. >Neither had any immediate plans to join before the war, but the bitter truth is that no neighbour of Russia is safe without an alliance providing a decisive military superiority. I agree entirely! That bitter truth has been known to conservatives in the United States since 1945 and has been routinely mocked by unaligned Europeans and urbane liberals in the United States for decades, culminating in the peak irony in 2012 of Barack Obama making fun of Mitt Romney's claim that Russia was the biggest geopolitical threat to America's interest.[2] [1] https://youtube.com/watch?v=w0y2gYoqOnA https://youtube.com/watch?v=w0y2gYoqOnA [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0IWe11RWOM&t=8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0IWe11RWOM&t=8

nataliste 2y ago

Your argument that Russia is solely responsible for destabilizing the region mirrors a familiar rhetorical pattern seen throughout history, where weaker powers are trapped in a Kafka trap[1]. Any resistance or reaction by the weaker side justifies further aggression from the stronger power, leading to their gradual erosion and disappearance through salami slicing tactics[2]. Whether through territorial encroachment or strategic isolation, the larger power frames its actions as purely defensive while the weaker party’s responses are cast as irrational or self-destructive. For historical examples, you can look at Carthage under the Romans prior to the Third Punic War, the Saxons under the Normans after Hastings, or the Native Americans under the United States. There are others. For contemporary examples, you can look at the Palestinians under the Israelis (or the Israelis not-quite-under the Arab world) or even the Ukrainians themselves under the Russians! In each of these struggles, the dominant hegemon and its allies want a dominated rival that is "stable, economically entwined with limited influence on their neighbors beyond economic ties. No tendrils of malevolent influence or proxies." Which is to say, totally compliant with their controller and inert as a geopolitical force as they are salami sliced at will. Russia's response to NATO's expansion is a contemporary example of this. Much like other weaker states in history facing incremental encroachment, Russia is blamed for destabilizing the region, while the more powerful actors continue policies that provoke and escalate the situation. The expectation that the weaker side alone should de-escalate or withdraw ignores the external pressures that limit their autonomy and drive their actions. These narratives are almost always self-serving and oversimplify the situation by placing full responsibility on the weaker party, masking the larger power dynamics at play. Throughout history, dominant states have used this framing to justify the gradual weakening and containment of their adversaries, presenting their own expansionist or aggressive strategies as benign or defensive while shifting the blame onto those they are dismantling. All I'm saying is these narratives of "I'm purely defensively containing you so I can eliminate you" are ubiquitous throughout history, but the best of those in the dominant position still understood that it was an ignoble lie even as they struggled against and were dragged along by them. The world would likely be healthier if we emulated them rather than those that always claim that their enemies are historically unlrecedented and uniquely Very Bad Persons[3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_salami_slicing_strategy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_salami_slicing_strateg... [2] https://dangerousintersection.org/2020/06/25/recognizing-and-escaping-from-kafka-traps/ https://dangerousintersection.org/2020/06/25/recognizing-and... [3] https://youtube.com/watch?v=HLNhPMQnWu4 https://youtube.com/watch?v=HLNhPMQnWu4

distances 2y ago
This is a very US centric take. NATO isn't expanding to increase US power over Russia. Independent, self-determined countries seek to join NATO to bolster their defense against the local aggressive neighbour. This should be very clear when you consider how NATO has expanded: not by US invitation to join them, but rather by Russian neighbours seeking an alliance to finally rid themselves of the threat. > Russia's response to NATO's expansion is a contemporary example of this So this is what you got backwards. Just consider latest members, Finland and Sweden. Neither had any immediate plans to join before the war, but the bitter truth is that no neighbour of Russia is safe without an alliance providing a decisive military superiority.
- nataliste 2y ago
  I agree it is a US-centric take, but I disagree that the expansion of NATO is not principally about expanding American power. John Bolton, in 1994, said about the UN: “There is no such thing as the United Nations. There is an international community that occasionally can be led by the only real power left in the world and that is the United States when it suits our interest and we can get others to go along.'[1] I think you could replace the UN with NATO and wouldn't lose much nuance. John Bolton, like Victoria Nuland and her husband Robert Kagan, have been determining foreign policy in American administrations for the last thirty years, from the collapse of the USSR to its resurgence as Putin's revanchist state. The published attitudes of Nuland, Kagan, and Bolton (not including hot mic moments like Nuland's "fuck the EU" tape) towards the EU, the UN, and NATO are almost, if not categorically hostile when it comes at the expense of American hegemony. It's also why the ICC has no real power in the West. As far as Sweden and Finland go, yes, their flight into NATO's arms was catalyzed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, yes, but this is also perfectly suited to the longterm geopolitical aims of the United States, whether it happened immediately, as it did, or if they were included in a future wave of NATO members. That's the nature of salami slicing tactics. You don't need to move fast, as your opponent doesn't have the capacity to ever stop you. >Neither had any immediate plans to join before the war, but the bitter truth is that no neighbour of Russia is safe without an alliance providing a decisive military superiority. I agree entirely! That bitter truth has been known to conservatives in the United States since 1945 and has been routinely mocked by unaligned Europeans and urbane liberals in the United States for decades, culminating in the peak irony in 2012 of Barack Obama making fun of Mitt Romney's claim that Russia was the biggest geopolitical threat to America's interest.[2] [1] https://youtube.com/watch?v=w0y2gYoqOnA https://youtube.com/watch?v=w0y2gYoqOnA [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0IWe11RWOM&t=8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0IWe11RWOM&t=8