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This is a strange time to be imposing chip sanctions, given AI isn’t at the forefront at real scale yet. They’re still able to access compute now, albeit at a
by surfpel 2y ago
This is a strange time to be imposing chip sanctions, given AI isn’t at the forefront at real scale yet.
They’re still able to access compute now, albeit at a higher cost. But in the future when scale and margins are much more relevant than today, that won’t be the case.
Market forces to develop IC tech (lithography, foundries, patents, etc..) inside China are surging. So by the time they really need quantity, it’s much more likely they’ll have a domestic high end IC supply chain implemented.
Obviously nobody could really predict the timelines with good certainty, but it seems like a good development for them long term.
- 15155 2y ago> They’re still able to access compute now, albeit at a higher cost. Perfect is the enemy of good. If massive resources must be diverted from R&D and into evading sanctions, it's harder to catch up as quickly or cheaply. Meanwhile: TSMC and the collective West are also making significant strides.
- surfpel 2y agoLarge market demand for a product is in itself a driver for R&D investment. With CCP level strategic investment it's a non-issue. They also have some of the best models out there already, so if they are being slowed down on AI development, it's clearly insignificant.