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> everybody thought we’d have self driving on the road within a decade. This is just not true. My reaction to the second challenge race (not the first) in 2005

> everybody thought we’d have self driving on the road within a decade. This is just not true. My reaction to the second challenge race (not the first) in 2005 was, it was a 0-to-1 kind of moment and robocars were now coming, but the timescale was not at all clear. Yes you could find hype and blithe overoptimism, and it's convenient to round that off to "everybody" when that's the picture you want to paint. > 20 years later that’s still not the case Also false. Waymo in public operation and expanding.

achierius 2y ago
That might have been your reaction but it wasn't the reaction of many hype-inclined analyst types. Tesla is particular has been promising "full self driving next year" for like a decade now. And despite everything, Waymo is not quite there yet. It's able to handle certain areas at a limited scale. Amazing, yes, but it has not changed the reality of driving for 99.9% of the population. Soon it will, I'm sure, but not yet.
fhdsgbbcaA 2y ago
Waymo has limited service in one of the smallest “big” cities by geographic area in the United States. You can’t even get a Waymo in Mountain View. Fact is Google will never break even on the investment and it’s more or less a white elephant. I don’t think it’s even accurate to call it a Beta product, at best it’s Alpha.
- simonw 2y ago
  Have you been in one? It's pretty extraordinary as an actual passenger.
  - fhdsgbbcaA 2y ago
    I’d give it a go if price competitive with Uber/Lyft - I can’t think of a way a robotaxi would be worth a premium though.
- abecedarius 2y ago
  > Fact is ... followed by speculation about the future. > [not everywhere] The standard you proposed was "on the road". In their service areas (more than "one", they've been in Phoenix for some time) anyone can install their app and get a ride. I shouldn't have poked my nose in here, I was just kind of croggled to see someone answer "ideological battle" by bringing up another argument where they don't seem to care about facts.

achierius 2y ago

That might have been your reaction but it wasn't the reaction of many hype-inclined analyst types. Tesla is particular has been promising "full self driving next year" for like a decade now. And despite everything, Waymo is not quite there yet. It's able to handle certain areas at a limited scale. Amazing, yes, but it has not changed the reality of driving for 99.9% of the population. Soon it will, I'm sure, but not yet.

fhdsgbbcaA 2y ago

Waymo has limited service in one of the smallest “big” cities by geographic area in the United States. You can’t even get a Waymo in Mountain View. Fact is Google will never break even on the investment and it’s more or less a white elephant. I don’t think it’s even accurate to call it a Beta product, at best it’s Alpha.

simonw 2y ago
Have you been in one? It's pretty extraordinary as an actual passenger.
- fhdsgbbcaA 2y ago
  I’d give it a go if price competitive with Uber/Lyft - I can’t think of a way a robotaxi would be worth a premium though.
abecedarius 2y ago
> Fact is ... followed by speculation about the future. > [not everywhere] The standard you proposed was "on the road". In their service areas (more than "one", they've been in Phoenix for some time) anyone can install their app and get a ride. I shouldn't have poked my nose in here, I was just kind of croggled to see someone answer "ideological battle" by bringing up another argument where they don't seem to care about facts.