3 ms·
30% chance of rain actually means 30% of the area is projected to have rain covering it rather than there being a 30% chance you will be rained on. An unlikely
by wtvanhest 14y ago
30% chance of rain actually means 30% of the area is projected to have rain covering it rather than there being a 30% chance you will be rained on.
An unlikely, but theoretically possible way to get 50% inside of 15 minute interval but 20% over an hour would be if the model prodicted very widespread rain in a band moving over an area and time weighted the percentage.
- mhurron 14y ago> 30% chance of rain actually means 30% of the area is projected to have rain covering it Common misconception. The Chance of precipitation is actually stating that historically, given these conditions x% of days produced precipitation. It is a statement of the odds that it will rain at all. http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/854/what-does-it-mean-when-x-percent-chance-of-rain-is-predicted http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/854/what-does-it-me...
- wtvanhest 14y agoThat site you provide (or cite) is the only one I can find that describes it that way. Every other source describes the otherway which I still think is correct: NOAA: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/wadefine.htm http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/wadefine.h... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation
- mhurron 14y agoEven those links state the PoP is a measure of the chance that it will happen at all. That is the historical measurement.
- wtvanhest 14y agoNo, that is the simplified explanation of how the average person should think about it. We are talking about the definition and a possible way to get the odd results the OP mentioned observing.