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The current human caused ecological catastrophe is obviously slower than, e.g. a meteor impact or supervolcano blocking out the sun caused global ecological cat

by _yb2s 2y ago

The current human caused ecological catastrophe is obviously slower than, e.g. a meteor impact or supervolcano blocking out the sun caused global ecological catastrophe, but that doesn't mean the ultimate effects won't be just as bad, even if we're not fully experiencing them yet.

pfdietz 2y ago
Yes, the current situation could become much worse. But it's not committed to that, and it's not yet in that state. If it were, we wouldn't be having this conversation, as the game would already be over.
- _yb2s 2y ago
  The effects of these type of events take a while to be fully realized, even when you are past the point of no return, e.g. where the species populations are too low to overcome the genetic bottleneck and survive long term, but aren't yet extinct. If you were actually in most historical mass extinction events, I'd also say they seemed "not that bad yet" for quite a long time after the point of no return, much longer than all of human history even in some cases.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    This is mere presumption, then, that the current experience will turn into something that is as bad as a mass extinction. It's also defeatism of the rankest kind. That outcome cannot both be inherent in the present and also avoidable.
    - _yb2s 2y ago
      It already is a large extinction event. It is also still possible to massively affect how much worse it gets, and the chances that our species is ultimately included in the extinction. It’s not defeatist to acknowledge reality- it is necessary to choose a realistic course of action. "If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle" -Sun Tzu Here is a more technical treatment of what is actually happening: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09678 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09678 Look at Figure 2 to see where we are now compared to past mass extinction events. We're well below the 75% of all species threshold, but that criteria is for a time frame of 2 million years in length. We can only guess at the future, we can't for example say for sure which species are already past the point of no return when they aren't yet extinct.

by _yb2s 2y ago

pfdietz 2y ago

Yes, the current situation could become much worse. But it's not committed to that, and it's not yet in that state. If it were, we wouldn't be having this conversation, as the game would already be over.

_yb2s 2y ago
The effects of these type of events take a while to be fully realized, even when you are past the point of no return, e.g. where the species populations are too low to overcome the genetic bottleneck and survive long term, but aren't yet extinct. If you were actually in most historical mass extinction events, I'd also say they seemed "not that bad yet" for quite a long time after the point of no return, much longer than all of human history even in some cases.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  This is mere presumption, then, that the current experience will turn into something that is as bad as a mass extinction. It's also defeatism of the rankest kind. That outcome cannot both be inherent in the present and also avoidable.
  - _yb2s 2y ago
    It already is a large extinction event. It is also still possible to massively affect how much worse it gets, and the chances that our species is ultimately included in the extinction. It’s not defeatist to acknowledge reality- it is necessary to choose a realistic course of action. "If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle" -Sun Tzu Here is a more technical treatment of what is actually happening: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09678 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09678 Look at Figure 2 to see where we are now compared to past mass extinction events. We're well below the 75% of all species threshold, but that criteria is for a time frame of 2 million years in length. We can only guess at the future, we can't for example say for sure which species are already past the point of no return when they aren't yet extinct.