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It all comes down to the consequences of failure. If failure means homelessness, avoid failure. If failure means you lose your one chance in your life of comp

It all comes down to the consequences of failure. If failure means homelessness, avoid failure. If failure means you lose your one chance in your life of completing a marathon, be conservative. If the difference between failing and succeeding is minimal in your life, burn the bridges! This was not his first marathon, and even if he bonked, he'd likely still be able to finish it, albeit slowly.

wing-_-nuts 2y ago
The question of consequences is real. I graduated in 2008 at the beginning of the great recession, and I watched some of my classmates go off and do startups. I asked them 'Dude, what if you fail?!' and one of them just shrugged his shoulders and said he'd move back home with his parents, and get a job at his dad's company. No big deal. That's when I realized it was much easier to take those risks when you knew you had a safety net to fall back on and you didn't have to worry about winding up homeless sleeping under an overpass.
- ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - sombrero_john 2y ago
    Dig a little deeper into your dataset and you will find that the reason these people didn't end up homeless is because most of them have well-off / supportive families, trust funds, or Ivy League degrees. That said I agree that people give in to fear too much, which prevents them from taking risks.
    - ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago
      Homelessness is not happening. If you have the skills to even attempt a startup, you can for sure get a job.
      - ebiester 2y ago
        I saw a bunch of people who had the skills to get a job take months to get one in 2023 and 2024. I've also seen people who think they have the skills to attempt a startup that did not. All it takes is a downturn at the wrong time and a low capacity for risk.
  - ipaddr 2y ago
    I'll take that guarantee and raise you. Someone on here who posts was in that situation. If you risk homelessness on a lottery ticket you are making a bad choice.
  - Cheer2171 2y ago
    Homelessness != sleeping outdoors or in a homeless shelter. If you have to move out of your home and live with family or friends because you lost your job, you have lost your home and are homeless.
- rqtwteye 2y ago
  I did some real estate deals with guys from wealthy families a long time ago. We failed but the difference in consequences was enormous. I lost my savings of 10 years and struggled getting out of the situation. The other guys got bailed out by dad, did more deals and are now very successful business people.
  - jbs789 2y ago
    Sorry to hear. For the benefit of others, I read this as the importance of sizing the bet relative to your portfolio and nobody else’s, and is broadly applicable. If someone bets a million bucks on stock A, but is worth a billion bucks, then that’s not $1m conviction, it’s <1% conviction. And that information is then factored into the size of my bet. Unfortunately I also learned this the hard way.
    - wadadadad 2y ago
      I really like the word conviction here for this concept and this use is new to me; has this been used before? A casual search for me doesn't term up anything.
      - jbs789 2y ago
        I really appreciate this comment! (I think that word just popped into my head given some professional experience recently rather than being sourced from the field.)
      - tracerbulletx 2y ago
        41 Jesus sat down opposite the place where the offerings were put and watched the crowd putting their money into the temple treasury. Many rich people threw in large amounts. 42 But a poor widow came and put in two very small copper coins, worth only a few cents. 43 Calling his disciples to him, Jesus said, “Truly I tell you, this poor widow has put more into the treasury than all the others. 44 They all gave out of their wealth; but she, out of her poverty, put in everything—all she had to live on.”
      - 2y ago
- packetlost 2y ago
  Family is easier, but you can also build up a support network with close friendships too. It doesn't necessarily come for free, but it's certainly possible. That isn't to say it's equal, especially when it comes to money.
LtWorf 2y ago
I think failure at a marathon can involve death.
- LtWorf 2y ago
  I love the downvotes… when the very story of the marathon is that the 1st person to do it died right after :D
jumping_frog 2y ago
Yet many people attempt K2 summit knowing the probabilities of death. Homelessness pales in comparison to death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jw8GHgyiqw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jw8GHgyiqw
- ndileas 2y ago
  I wouldn't state that unequivocally. I think for many people, homelessness (really, the pain, shame, and indignity associated with it) is worse than a "glorious" or meaningful death. Certainly, many people's actions show this to be true, if you believe to the idea of revealed preferences.
- delusional 2y ago
  Certainly objectively, but I think we have an odd misjudgment when it comes to death. Surely nothing I get out of skiing is worth the increased risk of death it also imposes. Yet I do it anyway, without any hesitation.
  - ghaff 2y ago
    Unless you do fairly extreme stuff I suspect the risk is more about driving to ski areas in winter on a regular basis
  - jacobr1 2y ago
    While we can compare tail-risks (some lower probability risks and many orders of magnitude more likely than others) I think most people, intuitively, use something like a 1 in a 100 risk of a death (over a lifetime) or 1 in 10,000 acute chance. Anything over the floor is fair game, and the specifics are more around what is culturally acceptable. For comparison the lifetime risk from driving is something like 1 in 100, and from skiing (1 in 2000) making some assumption of average participation in both.
  - jumping_frog 2y ago
    Compare that to society's extreme definition of safety. Vehicles will be allowed on road only if it results in less than 100 deaths per year. Yet, we as a soceity has decided that certain risks are worth taking compared to the benefit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb7Fi8I-qOk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb7Fi8I-qOk
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
chrsig 2y ago
yeah, getting people to think through consequences is like pulling teeth.
Aurornis 2y ago
> If the difference between failing and succeeding is minimal in your life, burn the bridges! The author’s analogy was about burning ships, not bridges, but your quote about burning bridges reminds me of related scenario I’m seeing more frequently among young people I’ve mentored: The idea that burning bridges is not a big deal because there are always more opportunities. I’m in a big Slack where people come to ask for advice on tech careers. An alarming number of questions in recent years are from people who want to leave their jobs with a bang: Quitting without notice, intentionally making things difficult for their successor, unloading their grievances with specific people as they leave, posting big angry messages on the company Slack on their last day, and other ill-advised ideas. They’re always disappointed when the Slack unanimously tells them it’s a bad idea to intentionally burn bridges like that. I guess it’s not until later in your career that you realize the value of being able to call on old managers and coworkers for referrals or job opportunities. They see leaving a job as the last time they’ll ever see any of those people. We have to remind them every time that networking is important and therefore they don’t want to leave a lasting negative impression on a place where they spent years building a reputation. Just do your two weeks notice and quietly exit. Tangential, but it comes up enough in these scenarios about taking on new risks that I thought I’d mention it.
- ebiester 2y ago
  You're right, though in this case I was just typing quickly and didn't double check the analogy after reading the post. :) I have found that a bad network is often worse than no network in that the type of people that work in a way you hate will lead you to jobs that are not right for you. Going back to the point above, this all depends on your risk capacity. I speak that as someone with a high risk capacity. For someone who has not built up reserves, that is terrible advice.
baxtr 2y ago
But if the difference is minimal, does it really qualify as failure?
tetha 2y ago
This is pretty much the framework I teach admins at work: - What impact does the change have? - How do you get out of that change, and how long does that take? - And what is your confidence into the change, and the bail-out plan? And honestly, if you have a high-confidence, fast bailout plan, you can be downright brazen/#yolo about changes. We've recently had to update a central and critical IDP, but we eventually realized: We have the old docker images, and it has a 200MB sized DB. We can dump + restore that in 2 minutes. So if the upgrade goes wrong, we have high confidence to rollback in like 5 minutes. At such a point.. why not just go with it? Similar things are developing with Postgres upgrades. Setup 1 leader + 3 replicas, upgrade 2 replicas, failover, see how much explodes and at worst, fall back. If we can test beforehand, alright. Other teams plan complicated upgrades requiring coordinated actions of 6 other teams. And like 3 know how to possibly take back that change? And like 4 know what to actually do? Ugh, this ended up in a fun weekend.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> If failure means you lose your one chance in your life of completing a marathon, be conservative Strongly disagree here. There are many marathons. Push yourself as hard as you can. Worst case, you miss and can’t attempt again. But you had fun and have plenty of other things you can do with your time and physique.
marklubi 2y ago
Having started and failed twice before finally succeeding, this is pretty much on point. Need to measure risks and rewards

wing-_-nuts 2y ago

The question of consequences is real. I graduated in 2008 at the beginning of the great recession, and I watched some of my classmates go off and do startups. I asked them 'Dude, what if you fail?!' and one of them just shrugged his shoulders and said he'd move back home with his parents, and get a job at his dad's company. No big deal. That's when I realized it was much easier to take those risks when you knew you had a safety net to fall back on and you didn't have to worry about winding up homeless sleeping under an overpass.

ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago
[flagged]
- sombrero_john 2y ago
  Dig a little deeper into your dataset and you will find that the reason these people didn't end up homeless is because most of them have well-off / supportive families, trust funds, or Ivy League degrees. That said I agree that people give in to fear too much, which prevents them from taking risks.
  - ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago
    Homelessness is not happening. If you have the skills to even attempt a startup, you can for sure get a job.
    - ebiester 2y ago
      I saw a bunch of people who had the skills to get a job take months to get one in 2023 and 2024. I've also seen people who think they have the skills to attempt a startup that did not. All it takes is a downturn at the wrong time and a low capacity for risk.
- ipaddr 2y ago
  I'll take that guarantee and raise you. Someone on here who posts was in that situation. If you risk homelessness on a lottery ticket you are making a bad choice.
- Cheer2171 2y ago
  Homelessness != sleeping outdoors or in a homeless shelter. If you have to move out of your home and live with family or friends because you lost your job, you have lost your home and are homeless.
rqtwteye 2y ago
I did some real estate deals with guys from wealthy families a long time ago. We failed but the difference in consequences was enormous. I lost my savings of 10 years and struggled getting out of the situation. The other guys got bailed out by dad, did more deals and are now very successful business people.
- jbs789 2y ago
  Sorry to hear. For the benefit of others, I read this as the importance of sizing the bet relative to your portfolio and nobody else’s, and is broadly applicable. If someone bets a million bucks on stock A, but is worth a billion bucks, then that’s not $1m conviction, it’s <1% conviction. And that information is then factored into the size of my bet. Unfortunately I also learned this the hard way.
  - wadadadad 2y ago
    I really like the word conviction here for this concept and this use is new to me; has this been used before? A casual search for me doesn't term up anything.
    - jbs789 2y ago
      I really appreciate this comment! (I think that word just popped into my head given some professional experience recently rather than being sourced from the field.)
    - tracerbulletx 2y ago
      41 Jesus sat down opposite the place where the offerings were put and watched the crowd putting their money into the temple treasury. Many rich people threw in large amounts. 42 But a poor widow came and put in two very small copper coins, worth only a few cents. 43 Calling his disciples to him, Jesus said, “Truly I tell you, this poor widow has put more into the treasury than all the others. 44 They all gave out of their wealth; but she, out of her poverty, put in everything—all she had to live on.”
    - 2y ago
packetlost 2y ago
Family is easier, but you can also build up a support network with close friendships too. It doesn't necessarily come for free, but it's certainly possible. That isn't to say it's equal, especially when it comes to money.

LtWorf 2y ago

I think failure at a marathon can involve death.

LtWorf 2y ago
I love the downvotes… when the very story of the marathon is that the 1st person to do it died right after :D

jumping_frog 2y ago

Yet many people attempt K2 summit knowing the probabilities of death. Homelessness pales in comparison to death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jw8GHgyiqw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jw8GHgyiqw

ndileas 2y ago
I wouldn't state that unequivocally. I think for many people, homelessness (really, the pain, shame, and indignity associated with it) is worse than a "glorious" or meaningful death. Certainly, many people's actions show this to be true, if you believe to the idea of revealed preferences.
delusional 2y ago
Certainly objectively, but I think we have an odd misjudgment when it comes to death. Surely nothing I get out of skiing is worth the increased risk of death it also imposes. Yet I do it anyway, without any hesitation.
- ghaff 2y ago
  Unless you do fairly extreme stuff I suspect the risk is more about driving to ski areas in winter on a regular basis
- jacobr1 2y ago
  While we can compare tail-risks (some lower probability risks and many orders of magnitude more likely than others) I think most people, intuitively, use something like a 1 in a 100 risk of a death (over a lifetime) or 1 in 10,000 acute chance. Anything over the floor is fair game, and the specifics are more around what is culturally acceptable. For comparison the lifetime risk from driving is something like 1 in 100, and from skiing (1 in 2000) making some assumption of average participation in both.
- jumping_frog 2y ago
  Compare that to society's extreme definition of safety. Vehicles will be allowed on road only if it results in less than 100 deaths per year. Yet, we as a soceity has decided that certain risks are worth taking compared to the benefit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb7Fi8I-qOk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb7Fi8I-qOk

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

chrsig 2y ago

yeah, getting people to think through consequences is like pulling teeth.

Aurornis 2y ago

> If the difference between failing and succeeding is minimal in your life, burn the bridges! The author’s analogy was about burning ships, not bridges, but your quote about burning bridges reminds me of related scenario I’m seeing more frequently among young people I’ve mentored: The idea that burning bridges is not a big deal because there are always more opportunities. I’m in a big Slack where people come to ask for advice on tech careers. An alarming number of questions in recent years are from people who want to leave their jobs with a bang: Quitting without notice, intentionally making things difficult for their successor, unloading their grievances with specific people as they leave, posting big angry messages on the company Slack on their last day, and other ill-advised ideas. They’re always disappointed when the Slack unanimously tells them it’s a bad idea to intentionally burn bridges like that. I guess it’s not until later in your career that you realize the value of being able to call on old managers and coworkers for referrals or job opportunities. They see leaving a job as the last time they’ll ever see any of those people. We have to remind them every time that networking is important and therefore they don’t want to leave a lasting negative impression on a place where they spent years building a reputation. Just do your two weeks notice and quietly exit. Tangential, but it comes up enough in these scenarios about taking on new risks that I thought I’d mention it.

ebiester 2y ago
You're right, though in this case I was just typing quickly and didn't double check the analogy after reading the post. :) I have found that a bad network is often worse than no network in that the type of people that work in a way you hate will lead you to jobs that are not right for you. Going back to the point above, this all depends on your risk capacity. I speak that as someone with a high risk capacity. For someone who has not built up reserves, that is terrible advice.

baxtr 2y ago

But if the difference is minimal, does it really qualify as failure?

tetha 2y ago

This is pretty much the framework I teach admins at work: - What impact does the change have? - How do you get out of that change, and how long does that take? - And what is your confidence into the change, and the bail-out plan? And honestly, if you have a high-confidence, fast bailout plan, you can be downright brazen/#yolo about changes. We've recently had to update a central and critical IDP, but we eventually realized: We have the old docker images, and it has a 200MB sized DB. We can dump + restore that in 2 minutes. So if the upgrade goes wrong, we have high confidence to rollback in like 5 minutes. At such a point.. why not just go with it? Similar things are developing with Postgres upgrades. Setup 1 leader + 3 replicas, upgrade 2 replicas, failover, see how much explodes and at worst, fall back. If we can test beforehand, alright. Other teams plan complicated upgrades requiring coordinated actions of 6 other teams. And like 3 know how to possibly take back that change? And like 4 know what to actually do? Ugh, this ended up in a fun weekend.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> If failure means you lose your one chance in your life of completing a marathon, be conservative Strongly disagree here. There are many marathons. Push yourself as hard as you can. Worst case, you miss and can’t attempt again. But you had fun and have plenty of other things you can do with your time and physique.

marklubi 2y ago

Having started and failed twice before finally succeeding, this is pretty much on point. Need to measure risks and rewards