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How does a satellite break up in orbit? Was it struck by something?

milgrim 2y ago
The satellite here was using the same Boeing bus: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/04/new-video-of-intelsat-29e-satellite-reveals-dramatic-anomaly/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/04/new-video-of-intelsa... So something similar might have happened here.
- dylan604 2y ago
  Waiting for a leak of emails where engineers expressed concerns on the design/elements and management approved anyways.
  - DrillShopper 2y ago
    Wow, these companies really are replicating NASA management
pdabbadabba 2y ago
For a satellite in a stable GEO orbit, I think there are basically two possibilities: 1. Collision with other debris 2. Internal fault causing uncontrolled release of stored energy (i.e., explosion) Intelsat-29e used the same satellite bus and experienced #2, in the form of some sort of uncontrolled propellant release.
visviva 2y ago
The most likely options are that it was struck by debris or that there was an explosion onboard. Those two are not mutually exclusive, either.
mattofak 2y ago
Could be struck by a micrometeorite, or if they were doing a station keeping maneuver something could have gone wrong with a thruster. (Apparently the first in it's class Intelsat-29e was lost due to a fuel leak, so maybe there is something systemically wrong in the spacecraft bus.)
bewaretheirs 2y ago
It's more likely that something energetic happened with an onboard system (propulsion or batteries). Could just be leaky valves causing propellant and oxidizer to meet somewhere they shouldn't.. It's had a few propulsion system issues: > On 9 September 2016, Intelsat announced that due to a malfunction in the LEROS-1c primary thruster, it would require more time for orbit rising ... > In August 2017, another propulsion issue appeared, leading to larger-than-expected propellant usage to control the satellite attitude during the north/south station keeping maneuvers. This issue reduced the orbital life-time by about 3.5 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelsat_33e https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelsat_33e
wongarsu 2y ago
It's anyways possible that it was struck by a meteorite or a piece of space debris that's too small to be tracked. But these satellites also carry fuel for orbit keeping, evasion manoeuvres and going to a graveyard orbit at its end of life. Given that this satellite had two separate propulsion issues and Intelsat-29e suffered from electrostatic discharge it's not difficult to imagine the satellite igniting its fuel in an uncontrolled manner
perihelions 2y ago
There's a lot of stored energy in satellites: fuel, gas pressurizers, batteries. End-of-life geosynchronous satellites sometimes drain all of these, deliberately, to limit their hazard as space junk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passivation_(spacecraft) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passivation_(spacecraft)
worstspotgain 2y ago
An accidental strike is unlikely. Either a massive malfunction, or maybe ASAT [1]. ASAT is always going to be a possibility from now on simply because the target might prefer to deny getting hit. [1] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/news/us-warns-new-russian-asat-program https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/news/us-warns-new-ru...
- panzagl 2y ago
  I think we'd know if the Russians detonated a nuke in orbit.
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    That's not the only kind of weapon.
    - panzagl 2y ago
      So you're saying an untraceable ASAT attack is more likely than a micrometeor impact?
      - worstspotgain 2y ago
        Lots of real estate between "might prefer to deny it" and "untraceable." On HN at least, you should assume the best possible interpretation instead of putting words into mouths. And yes, malfunction is the most likely cause, distantly followed by attack. Micrometeoroid isn't very likely IMO, considering Intelsat-29e failed similarly. Unless maybe if they painted a red target on it and the meteor god has a sense of humor.
exe34 2y ago
rapid unscheduled disassembly.
doodlebugging 2y ago
We are at the beginning of the Orionid meteor shower so earth is now in the debris stream that creates that shower and has been for a couple days. This could be a Boeing problem but it also could be due to an impact with a micrometeorite or other natural-origin space debris. Enjoy the meteor shower if you have a chance.
benlivengood 2y ago
I'm curious if a thruster malfunction could also cause it to spin to the point of breaking up.

The satellite here was using the same Boeing bus: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/04/new-video-of-intelsat-29e-satellite-reveals-dramatic-anomaly/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/04/new-video-of-intelsa... So something similar might have happened here.

dylan604 2y ago
Waiting for a leak of emails where engineers expressed concerns on the design/elements and management approved anyways.
- DrillShopper 2y ago
  Wow, these companies really are replicating NASA management

pdabbadabba 2y ago

For a satellite in a stable GEO orbit, I think there are basically two possibilities: 1. Collision with other debris 2. Internal fault causing uncontrolled release of stored energy (i.e., explosion) Intelsat-29e used the same satellite bus and experienced #2, in the form of some sort of uncontrolled propellant release.

visviva 2y ago

The most likely options are that it was struck by debris or that there was an explosion onboard. Those two are not mutually exclusive, either.

mattofak 2y ago

Could be struck by a micrometeorite, or if they were doing a station keeping maneuver something could have gone wrong with a thruster. (Apparently the first in it's class Intelsat-29e was lost due to a fuel leak, so maybe there is something systemically wrong in the spacecraft bus.)

bewaretheirs 2y ago

It's more likely that something energetic happened with an onboard system (propulsion or batteries). Could just be leaky valves causing propellant and oxidizer to meet somewhere they shouldn't.. It's had a few propulsion system issues: > On 9 September 2016, Intelsat announced that due to a malfunction in the LEROS-1c primary thruster, it would require more time for orbit rising ... > In August 2017, another propulsion issue appeared, leading to larger-than-expected propellant usage to control the satellite attitude during the north/south station keeping maneuvers. This issue reduced the orbital life-time by about 3.5 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelsat_33e https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelsat_33e

wongarsu 2y ago

It's anyways possible that it was struck by a meteorite or a piece of space debris that's too small to be tracked. But these satellites also carry fuel for orbit keeping, evasion manoeuvres and going to a graveyard orbit at its end of life. Given that this satellite had two separate propulsion issues and Intelsat-29e suffered from electrostatic discharge it's not difficult to imagine the satellite igniting its fuel in an uncontrolled manner

perihelions 2y ago

There's a lot of stored energy in satellites: fuel, gas pressurizers, batteries. End-of-life geosynchronous satellites sometimes drain all of these, deliberately, to limit their hazard as space junk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passivation_(spacecraft) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passivation_(spacecraft)

worstspotgain 2y ago

An accidental strike is unlikely. Either a massive malfunction, or maybe ASAT [1]. ASAT is always going to be a possibility from now on simply because the target might prefer to deny getting hit. [1] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/news/us-warns-new-russian-asat-program https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/news/us-warns-new-ru...

panzagl 2y ago
I think we'd know if the Russians detonated a nuke in orbit.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  That's not the only kind of weapon.
  - panzagl 2y ago
    So you're saying an untraceable ASAT attack is more likely than a micrometeor impact?
    - worstspotgain 2y ago
      Lots of real estate between "might prefer to deny it" and "untraceable." On HN at least, you should assume the best possible interpretation instead of putting words into mouths. And yes, malfunction is the most likely cause, distantly followed by attack. Micrometeoroid isn't very likely IMO, considering Intelsat-29e failed similarly. Unless maybe if they painted a red target on it and the meteor god has a sense of humor.

exe34 2y ago

rapid unscheduled disassembly.

doodlebugging 2y ago

We are at the beginning of the Orionid meteor shower so earth is now in the debris stream that creates that shower and has been for a couple days. This could be a Boeing problem but it also could be due to an impact with a micrometeorite or other natural-origin space debris. Enjoy the meteor shower if you have a chance.

benlivengood 2y ago

I'm curious if a thruster malfunction could also cause it to spin to the point of breaking up.