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Please ping me in 5 years to reassess. I'm ready to bet 1 month of my salary that human software developers will still exist then.

by guappa 2y ago

fragmede 2y ago
1 months salary now, or then? You'll be 5 years further into your career, so it'll hopefully be higher, but also, the industry is changing. Even if ChatGPT-5 never comes out, it's already making waves on developer productivity where there's enough training data. So in five years will it still be a highly paid $300k/yr at a FAANG position, or will it pay more like being the line cook at a local diner. Or maybe it'll follow the pay rate for musicians - trumpet players before cheap records came out made a decent living. Since then, the rise of records, and then radio and CDs and now the Internet and Spotify means that your local bar doesn't need to have a person come over to play music in order to have music. or visuals for that matter. The sports bar wouldn't exist without television. So maybe programming will be like being a musician in five years, with some making Taylor Swift money, and others busking at subway entrances. I'm hoping it'll still be a highly paid position, but it would be foolish of me not to see how easy it is to make an app by sitting down with Claude and giving it some high level directives and iterating.
- guappa 2y ago
  You have to make a PRODUCT, not an hello world app :)
  - fragmede 2y ago
    Using an advanced programming technique called modularization, where you put the code into multiple different files, you may find it possible to get around the LLMs problem of limited context window length and find success building more than a trivial todo app. Of course you'd have to try this for yourself instead of parroting what you read on the Internet, so your mileage may vary. =p
    - guappa 2y ago
      We both know it won't work, but please make a youtube demo about this.
CamperBob2 2y ago
Well, of course they will. Human farmers still exist, too, but their day-to-day activities don't resemble their ancestors jobs in the slightest.

Please ping me in 5 years to reassess. I'm ready to bet 1 month of my salary that human software developers will still exist then.

by guappa 2y ago

Please ping me in 5 years to reassess. I'm ready to bet 1 month of my salary that human software developers will still exist then.

fragmede 2y ago

1 months salary now, or then? You'll be 5 years further into your career, so it'll hopefully be higher, but also, the industry is changing. Even if ChatGPT-5 never comes out, it's already making waves on developer productivity where there's enough training data. So in five years will it still be a highly paid $300k/yr at a FAANG position, or will it pay more like being the line cook at a local diner. Or maybe it'll follow the pay rate for musicians - trumpet players before cheap records came out made a decent living. Since then, the rise of records, and then radio and CDs and now the Internet and Spotify means that your local bar doesn't need to have a person come over to play music in order to have music. or visuals for that matter. The sports bar wouldn't exist without television. So maybe programming will be like being a musician in five years, with some making Taylor Swift money, and others busking at subway entrances. I'm hoping it'll still be a highly paid position, but it would be foolish of me not to see how easy it is to make an app by sitting down with Claude and giving it some high level directives and iterating.

guappa 2y ago
You have to make a PRODUCT, not an hello world app :)
- fragmede 2y ago
  Using an advanced programming technique called modularization, where you put the code into multiple different files, you may find it possible to get around the LLMs problem of limited context window length and find success building more than a trivial todo app. Of course you'd have to try this for yourself instead of parroting what you read on the Internet, so your mileage may vary. =p
  - guappa 2y ago
    We both know it won't work, but please make a youtube demo about this.

CamperBob2 2y ago

Well, of course they will. Human farmers still exist, too, but their day-to-day activities don't resemble their ancestors jobs in the slightest.