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He has a long track record of making concrete and timed predictions. So you can look at the predictions Kurtzweil made 25 years ago in _The Age of Spirtual Mach
by jsnell 2y ago
He has a long track record of making concrete and timed predictions. So you can look at the predictions Kurtzweil made 25 years ago in _The Age of Spirtual Machines_ and 20 years ago in _The Singularity is Near_, and use the hit rate of those predictions to establish credibility (or lack thereof).
But you'd need to read the books yourself and do your own evaluation. Kurzweil's own scoring of those past predictions has been so generous that it borders on fraudulent.
- arp242 2y agoI read The Singularity is Near a few months ago. He makes a lot of predictions with great confidence and accuracy. Some of which are now in the past and others have basically zero chance of becoming true. His entire "AI will herald in a new era of nanobots" is pure speculation. He now makes new predictions for the future with similar confidence. Ray Kurzweil lives in an alternate reality. He's like one of those "the rapture is near" preachers types who keep moving the date for the rapture. Any moment now I expect him to start handing out Kool-Aid during one of his talks. I wouldn't recommend drinking that.