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The AI bubble will pop in the next year. We are currently in 1998 of the dotcom bubble with another AI winter approaching. LLM and generative AI are this year’s

The AI bubble will pop in the next year. We are currently in 1998 of the dotcom bubble with another AI winter approaching. LLM and generative AI are this year’s “on the Internet” or “Uber for X” business plans.

ant6n 2y ago
Will the AI bubble pop bring down the rest of the startup industry, or allow for more investment in non AI tech. Climate related tech needs more money.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  Given the direction of the economy, we'd hit a recession and no one will be investing. So a loss for all tech. I argue we already are in one, but the US election cycle wants to delay that reality until 2025. Though the US did do a pretty big rate cut. I imagine that will at least stall such a bubble burst into 2026 instead.
datavirtue 2y ago
The market PE is very high and has been high for a while. Tech and AI are fueling a lot of that. Look what happened to Tesla when the fundamentals started getting a little discouraging. However, I'm not comfortable predicting the "AI bubble" popping next year.
arminiusreturns 2y ago
I don't think it will. The economy bubble will be popped post-election (you will know when the Fed starts raising rates again), but CRE (commercial real estate) is likely the catalyst this time. Within CRE, datacenters are the only item in the green in investors eyes, even more now because of the AI boom. I fully expect that class of investor to then dump more money than ever into energy generation and other sectors related to AI in order to escape the planned crash. The biggest variable is if the supranational oligarchs are wanting to use this crash to cause a much more major shift in monetary policy such as CBDCs.
- snowfresco 2y ago
  Did you mean to say cutting rates?
  - arminiusreturns 2y ago
    No, they are cutting now to keep it propped up. After the election they will raise again, triggering the cascade.

ant6n 2y ago

Will the AI bubble pop bring down the rest of the startup industry, or allow for more investment in non AI tech. Climate related tech needs more money.

johnnyanmac 2y ago
Given the direction of the economy, we'd hit a recession and no one will be investing. So a loss for all tech. I argue we already are in one, but the US election cycle wants to delay that reality until 2025. Though the US did do a pretty big rate cut. I imagine that will at least stall such a bubble burst into 2026 instead.

datavirtue 2y ago

The market PE is very high and has been high for a while. Tech and AI are fueling a lot of that. Look what happened to Tesla when the fundamentals started getting a little discouraging. However, I'm not comfortable predicting the "AI bubble" popping next year.

arminiusreturns 2y ago

I don't think it will. The economy bubble will be popped post-election (you will know when the Fed starts raising rates again), but CRE (commercial real estate) is likely the catalyst this time. Within CRE, datacenters are the only item in the green in investors eyes, even more now because of the AI boom. I fully expect that class of investor to then dump more money than ever into energy generation and other sectors related to AI in order to escape the planned crash. The biggest variable is if the supranational oligarchs are wanting to use this crash to cause a much more major shift in monetary policy such as CBDCs.

snowfresco 2y ago
Did you mean to say cutting rates?
- arminiusreturns 2y ago
  No, they are cutting now to keep it propped up. After the election they will raise again, triggering the cascade.