3 ms·

What has Kurzweil ever done that we should listen to him? And if Elom gives a timeline that is automatically sus.

8note 2y ago
From other posts on the hacker news front page, will AI complete the ipv4 to ipv6 transition this year? If not, I think it's still a while before we hit the singularity, because it's going to have to be good at solving problems like 4=>6 before it could hope to be a singularity event
- pfdietz 2y ago
  AI will first achieve dominance of Linux on the desktop.
wslh 2y ago
You can refer to his bio on Wikipedia [1], but the question itself seems a bit off, as it assumes that someone needs to have accomplished something specific to be worth listening to. While I’m not talking about Kurzweil in particular, the truth is, you don’t necessarily need a list of achievements to say something valid or correct. For instance, Isaac Newton made groundbreaking discoveries, yet also devoted significant time to alchemy [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton#Alchemy” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton#Alchemy”
- ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago
  The thing is I know of Kurtzweil from the time he worked on synthesizers. His AI stuff and singularity stuff always felt like gimmicks to me even back then.
jsnell 2y ago
He has a long track record of making concrete and timed predictions. So you can look at the predictions Kurtzweil made 25 years ago in _The Age of Spirtual Machines_ and 20 years ago in _The Singularity is Near_, and use the hit rate of those predictions to establish credibility (or lack thereof). But you'd need to read the books yourself and do your own evaluation. Kurzweil's own scoring of those past predictions has been so generous that it borders on fraudulent.
- arp242 2y ago
  I read The Singularity is Near a few months ago. He makes a lot of predictions with great confidence and accuracy. Some of which are now in the past and others have basically zero chance of becoming true. His entire "AI will herald in a new era of nanobots" is pure speculation. He now makes new predictions for the future with similar confidence. Ray Kurzweil lives in an alternate reality. He's like one of those "the rapture is near" preachers types who keep moving the date for the rapture. Any moment now I expect him to start handing out Kool-Aid during one of his talks. I wouldn't recommend drinking that.

From other posts on the hacker news front page, will AI complete the ipv4 to ipv6 transition this year? If not, I think it's still a while before we hit the singularity, because it's going to have to be good at solving problems like 4=>6 before it could hope to be a singularity event

pfdietz 2y ago
AI will first achieve dominance of Linux on the desktop.

wslh 2y ago

You can refer to his bio on Wikipedia [1], but the question itself seems a bit off, as it assumes that someone needs to have accomplished something specific to be worth listening to. While I’m not talking about Kurzweil in particular, the truth is, you don’t necessarily need a list of achievements to say something valid or correct. For instance, Isaac Newton made groundbreaking discoveries, yet also devoted significant time to alchemy [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton#Alchemy” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton#Alchemy”

ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago
The thing is I know of Kurtzweil from the time he worked on synthesizers. His AI stuff and singularity stuff always felt like gimmicks to me even back then.

jsnell 2y ago

He has a long track record of making concrete and timed predictions. So you can look at the predictions Kurtzweil made 25 years ago in _The Age of Spirtual Machines_ and 20 years ago in _The Singularity is Near_, and use the hit rate of those predictions to establish credibility (or lack thereof). But you'd need to read the books yourself and do your own evaluation. Kurzweil's own scoring of those past predictions has been so generous that it borders on fraudulent.

arp242 2y ago
I read The Singularity is Near a few months ago. He makes a lot of predictions with great confidence and accuracy. Some of which are now in the past and others have basically zero chance of becoming true. His entire "AI will herald in a new era of nanobots" is pure speculation. He now makes new predictions for the future with similar confidence. Ray Kurzweil lives in an alternate reality. He's like one of those "the rapture is near" preachers types who keep moving the date for the rapture. Any moment now I expect him to start handing out Kool-Aid during one of his talks. I wouldn't recommend drinking that.