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Right, ok fair. The handling of intermediate distributions when combining factors is straightforward math but I have found it almost impossible to have a coher
by shermantanktop 2y ago
Right, ok fair. The handling of intermediate distributions when combining factors is straightforward math but I have found it almost impossible to have a coherent conversation about that with many people, especially tech leaders. They want to talk about outcomes so they collapse all the intermediates into if/else decision trees and then get unhappy when the final probability doesn’t match their intuition.
And these are smart people… I just think most people generally struggle with contingent probability.
Do have links to this type of treatment of Drake?
- kelseyfrog 2y agohttps://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404 and discussed here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17560462 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17560462