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I want to point out to anyone who's interested in the nuclear angle that even before the AI data center demand story arrived, the uranium market was facing a pe

I want to point out to anyone who's interested in the nuclear angle that even before the AI data center demand story arrived, the uranium market was facing a persistent undersupply for the first time in its many decades of history. As a result, the (long-term contract) price of uranium has been steadily rising for years: https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price After Fukushima (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41768726 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41768726), Japanese reactors were shut down and there was a glut of uranium available in the spot market. Simultaneously, Kazatomprom flooded the market with cheap ISR uranium. The price of uranium fell far below the cost of production and the mining companies were obliterated. The few miners that survived via their long-term contracts (primarily Cameco) put their less efficient mines into care and maintenance. Now we're seeing the uranium mining business wake up. But after a decade of bear-market conditions the miners cannot serve the demand: they've underinvested, they've lost skilled labor, they've shrunk. The rebound in uranium supply will be slow, much slower than the rebound in demand. This is because uranium mining is an extremely difficult process. Look at how long NexGen Energy's Rook 1 Arrow mine has taken to develop, and that's prime ore (https://s28.q4cdn.com/891672792/files/doc_downloads/2022/03/0000-BA00-RPT-0002_2-compressed.pdf https://s28.q4cdn.com/891672792/files/doc_downloads/2022/03/...). Look at Kazatomprom's slowing growth rate (https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kazatomprom-lowers-2025-uranium-production-expecta https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kazatomprom-lowers-2...), look at the incredible complexity of Cameco's mining operations: https://www.petersenproducts.com/articles/an-inflatable-tunnel-seal-stops-flooding-of-the-worlds-largest-undeveloped-uranium-mine.html https://www.petersenproducts.com/articles/an-inflatable-tunn... Here is a discussion of the uranium mining situtation: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41661768 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41661768 (including a very risky method of profiting from the undersupply of uranium, stock ticker SRUUF, not recommended). Note that Numerco's uranium spot price was put behind a paywall last week. You can still get the intra-day spot uranium price for free here: https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/ https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/

ben_w 2y ago
Uranium, at least the un-enriched kind you can just buy, was never the problem. Even the peak of that graph (136… er, USD per lb?) is essentially a rounding error compared to everything else. 0.00191 USD/kWh? Something like that, depends on the type of reactor it goes in.
- atomic128 2y ago
  You are correct. This is one of the advantages of nuclear power. The fuel is a tiny fraction of the cost of running the plant. See discussion here, contrasting with natural gas: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41858892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41858892 It is also important that the fuel is physically small so you can (and typically, do) store years of fuel on-site at the reactor. Nuclear is "secure" in the sense that it can provide "energy security".
  - ben_w 2y ago
    It would only be an advantage if everything in the power plant else wasn't so expensive. And I'm saying that as someone who finds all this stuff cool and would like to see it used in international shipping.
    - atomic128 2y ago
      Discussed at length here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41863388 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41863388 I already linked this above, twice. I know it's a hassle to read, it's Sunday afternoon, so don't worry about it. It's not important whether you as an individual get this right or not, as long as society reaches the correct conclusion. Thankfully, we're seeing that happen, a worldwide shift toward the adoption of nuclear power. Have a pleasant evening!

ben_w 2y ago

Uranium, at least the un-enriched kind you can just buy, was never the problem. Even the peak of that graph (136… er, USD per lb?) is essentially a rounding error compared to everything else. 0.00191 USD/kWh? Something like that, depends on the type of reactor it goes in.

atomic128 2y ago
You are correct. This is one of the advantages of nuclear power. The fuel is a tiny fraction of the cost of running the plant. See discussion here, contrasting with natural gas: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41858892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41858892 It is also important that the fuel is physically small so you can (and typically, do) store years of fuel on-site at the reactor. Nuclear is "secure" in the sense that it can provide "energy security".
- ben_w 2y ago
  It would only be an advantage if everything in the power plant else wasn't so expensive. And I'm saying that as someone who finds all this stuff cool and would like to see it used in international shipping.
  - atomic128 2y ago
    Discussed at length here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41863388 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41863388 I already linked this above, twice. I know it's a hassle to read, it's Sunday afternoon, so don't worry about it. It's not important whether you as an individual get this right or not, as long as society reaches the correct conclusion. Thankfully, we're seeing that happen, a worldwide shift toward the adoption of nuclear power. Have a pleasant evening!