I am not a professional in either strategic planning or risk management, nor wargaming. Nor for that matter operations research. Some of what you wrote felt opt

I am not a professional in either strategic planning or risk management, nor wargaming. Nor for that matter operations research. Some of what you wrote felt optimistic and I believe in risk management the triplet of risk, consequence and likelihood come together all the time. If LEO sats can be augmented to perform real-time tracking and if the Chinese have a fleet of LEO at starlink density then a significant component of MAD operational practice ceases to exist. The deterrent threat of subs depends on inability to perform timely exact tracking. So that speaks to consequence. Likelihood is where I think you may be optimistic. An analogy here, is EMF protection. Nobody can afford to protect for all conceivable EMF pulses. So they defend for the worst they can afford. Uncertainty here MAY be enhancing of the protection. Likewise to sub and stealth visibility.