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Would the hype last until then? 5 years is a very long time in tech world. MIT economists calculated that current AI can only impact 5% jobs significantly. I d
by sinuhe69 2y ago
Would the hype last until then? 5 years is a very long time in tech world.
MIT economists calculated that current AI can only impact 5% jobs significantly. I don’t think this number would justify a trillions dollar investment (Altman number)
- reducesuffering 2y agoCurrent? Only 5%? You're talking about 15 million Americans jobs at an average of $60k/yr each. $900 billion / year. What's in 3 years? 5? All of the developed world not just US? Like COVID showed, people are so bad at seeing what's coming on the exponential curve.
- echoangle 2y agoIt says „impact significantly“, not „replace“, so I’m not sure what calculating the salary of impacted jobs is supposed to tell me.
- reducesuffering 2y agoOh great, I'm relieved since checks notes MIT economists are at the forefront of understanding bleeding edge technology
- echoangle 2y agoSo you don’t even believe the 5% figure? Why would you make a weird calculation based on it then?
- pixelready 2y agoTo paraphrase Cory Doctorow, never underestimate: 1. The desire of your CEO to remove as many people as possible from the payroll, and 2. Their willingness to replace a high quality but expensive customer experience with a middling but cheap one when industry consolidation has removed enough competitive pressure.
- anarticle 2y agoPenn and OpenAI claimed: "Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted." https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130 https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130