7 ms·

Tesla jumped the gun on the FSD free trial earlier this year. It was nowhere near good enough at the time. Most people who tried it for the first time probably

Tesla jumped the gun on the FSD free trial earlier this year. It was nowhere near good enough at the time. Most people who tried it for the first time probably share your opinion. That said, there is a night and day difference between FSD 12.3 that you experienced earlier this year and the latest version 12.6. It will still make mistakes from time to time but the improvement is massive and obvious. More importantly, the rate of improvement in the past two months has been much faster than before. Yesterday I spent an hour in the car over three drives and did not have to turn the steering wheel at all except for parking. That never happened on 12.3. And I don't even have 12.6 yet, this is still 12.5; others report that 12.6 is a noticeable improvement over 12.5. And version 13 is scheduled for release in the next two weeks, and the FSD team has actually hit their last few release milestones. People are right that it is still not ready yet, but if they think it will stay that way forever they are about to be very surprised. At the current rate of improvement it will be quite good within a year and in two or three I could see it actually reaching the point where it could operate unsupervised.

seizethecheese 2y ago
If this is the case, the calls for heavy regulation in this thread will lead to many more deaths than otherwise.
jvanderbot 2y ago
I have yet to see a difference. I let it highway drive for an hour and it cut off a semi, coming within 9 to 12 inches of the bumper for no reason. I heard about that one believe me. It got stuck in a side street trying to get to a target parking lot, shaking the wheel back and forth. It's no better so far and this is the first day.
- modeless 2y ago
  You have 12.6? As I said, it still makes mistakes and it is not ready yet. But 12.3 was much worse. It's the rate of improvement I am impressed with. I will also note that the predicted epidemic of crashes from people abusing FSD never happened. It's been on the road for a long time now. The idea that it is "irresponsible" to deploy it in its current state seems conclusively disproven. You can argue about exactly what the rate of crashes is but it seems clear that it has been at the very least no worse than normal driving.
  - jvanderbot 2y ago
    Hm. I thought that was the latest release but it looks like no. But there seems to be no improvements from the last trial, so maybe 12.6 is magically better.
    - modeless 2y ago
      A lot of people have been getting the free trial with 12.3 still on their cars today. Tesla has really screwed up on the free trial for sure. Nobody should be getting it unless they have 12.6 at least.
      - jvanderbot 2y ago
        I have 12.5. maybe 12.6 is better but I've heard that before. Don't get me wrong without a concerted data team building maps a priori, this is pretty incredible. But from a pure performance standpoint it's a shaky product.
        KaoruAoiShiho 2y ago
        The latest version is 12.5.6, I think he got confused by the .6 at the end. If you think that's bad then there isn't a better version available. However it is a dramatic improvement over 12.3, don't know how much you tested on it.
        modeless 2y ago
        You're right, thanks. One of the biggest updates in 12.5.6 is transitioning the highway Autopilot to FSD. If he has 12.5.4 then it may still be using the old non-FSD Autopilot on highways which would explain why he hasn't noticed improvement there; there hasn't been any until 12.5.6.
- hilux 2y ago
  > ... coming within 9 to 12 inches of the bumper for no reason. I heard about that one believe me. Oh dear. Glad you're okay!
- eric_cc 2y ago
  Is it possible you have a lemon? Genuine question. I’ve had nothing but positive experiences with FSD for the last several months and many thousands of miles.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    I've had nothing but positive experiences with ChatGPT-4o, that doesn't make people wrong to criticise either as modelling their training data too much and generalising too little when they need to use it for something where the inference domain is too far outside the training domain.
  - kelnos 2y ago
    If the incidence of problems is some relatively small number, like 5% or 10%, it's very easily possible that you've never personally seen a problem, but overall we'd still consider that the total incidence of problems is unacceptable. Please stop presenting arguments of the form "I haven't seen problems so people who have problems must be extreme outliers". At best it's ignorant, at worst it's actively in bad faith.
  - londons_explore 2y ago
    I suspect the performance might vary widely depending on if you're on a road in california they have a lot of data on, or if its a road FSD has rarely seen before.
  - dham 2y ago
    A lot of haters mistake safety critical disengagements with "oh the car is doing something I don't like or I wouldn't do" If you treat the car like it's a student driver or someone else driving, disengagements will go do. If you treat it like you're driving there's also something to complain about.
snypher 2y ago
So just a few more years of death and injury until they reach a finished product?
- quailfarmer 2y ago
  If the answer was yes, presumably there’s a tradeoff where that deal would be reasonable.
- londons_explore 2y ago
  So far, data points to it having far fewer crashes than a human alone. Teslas data shows that, but 3rd party data seems to imply the same.
  - rvnx 2y ago
    It disconnects in case of dangerous situations, so every 33 miles to 77 miles driven (depending on the version), versus 400'000 miles for a human
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    Tesla does not release the data required to substantiate such a claim. It simply doesn’t and you’re either lying or being lied to.
    - londons_explore 2y ago
      tesla releases this data: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
      - rainsford 2y ago
        That data is not an apples to apples comparison unless autopilot is used in exactly the same mix of conditions as human driving. Tesla doesn't share that in the report, but I'd bet it's not equivalent. I personally tend to turn on driving automation features (in my non-Tesla car) in easier conditions and drive myself when anything unusual or complicated is going on, and I'd bet most drivers of Teslas and otherwise do the same. This is important because I'd bet similar data on the use of standard, non-adaptive cruise control would similarly show it's much safer than human drivers. But of course that would be because people use cruise control most in long-distance highway driving outside of congested areas, where you're least likely to have an accident.
misiti3780 2y ago
i have the same experience 12.5 is insanely good. HN is full of people that dont want self driving to succeed for some reason. fortunately, it's clear as day to some of us that tesla approach will work
- ethbr1 2y ago
  Curiousity about why they're against it and enunciating your why you think it will work would be more helpful.
  - misiti3780 2y ago
    It's evident to Tesla drivers using Full Self-Driving (FSD) that the technology is rapidly improving and will likely succeed. The key reason for this anticipated success is data: any reasonably intelligent observer recognizes that training exceptional deep neural networks requires vast amounts of data, and Tesla has accumulated more relevant data than any of its competitors. Tesla recently held a robotaxi event, explicitly informing investors of their plans to launch an autonomous competitor to Uber. While Elon Musk's timeline predictions and politics may be controversial, his ability to achieve results and attract top engineering and management talent is undeniable.
    - ryandrake 2y ago
      Then why have we been just a year or two away from actual working self-driving, for the last 10 years? If I told my boss that my project would be done in a year, and then the following year said the same thing, and continued that for years, that’s not what “achieving results” means.
    - kelnos 2y ago
      > It's evident to Tesla drivers using Full Self-Driving (FSD) that the technology is rapidly improving and will likely succeed Sounds like Tesla drivers have been at the Kool-Aid then. But to be a bit more serious, the problem isn't necessarily that people don't think it's improving (I do believe it is) or that they will likely succeed (I'm not sure where I stand on this). The problem is that every year Musk says the next year will be the Year of FSD. And every next year, it doesn't materialize. This is like the Boy Who Cried Wolf; Musk has zero credibility with me when it comes to predictions. And that loss of credibility affects my feeling as to whether he'll be successful at all. On top of that, I'm not convinced that autonomous driving that only makes use of cameras will ever be reliably safer than human drivers.
bastawhiz 2y ago
> At the current rate of improvement it will be quite good within a year I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not sure "quite good" is the next step after "feels dangerous".
- rvnx 2y ago
  "Just round the corner" (2016)
  - FireBeyond 2y ago
    Musk in 2016 (these are quotes, not paraphrases): "Self driving is a solved problem. We are just tuning the details." Musk in 2021: "Right now our highest priority is working on solving the problem."
delusional 2y ago
> That said, there is a night and day difference between FSD 12.3 that you experienced earlier this year and the latest version 12.6 >And I don't even have 12.6 yet, this is still 12.5; How am i supposed to take anything you say seriously when your only claim is a personal anecdote that doesn't even apply to your own argument. Please, think about what you're writing, and please stop repeating information you heard on youtube as if it's fact. The is one of the reasons (among many) that I can't take Tesla booster seriously. I have absolutely zero faith in your anecdote that you didn't touch the steering wheel. I bet it's a lie.
- modeless 2y ago
  The version I have is already a night and day difference from 12.3 and the current version is better still. Nothing I said is contradictory in the slightest. Apply some basic reasoning, please. I didn't say I didn't touch the steering wheel. I had my hands lightly touching it most of the time, as one should for safety. I occasionally used the controls on the wheel as well as the accelerator pedal to adjust the set speed, and I used the turn signal to suggest lane changes from time to time, though most lane choices were made automatically. But I did not turn the wheel. All turning was performed by the system. (If you turn the wheel manually the system disengages). Other than parking, as I mentioned, though FSD did handle some navigation into and inside parking lots.
- eric_cc 2y ago
  I can second this experience. I rarely touch the wheel anymore. I’d say I’m 98% FSD. I take over in school zones, parking lots, and complex construction.
- jsjohnst 2y ago
  > I have absolutely zero faith in your anecdote that you didn't touch the steering wheel. I bet it's a lie. I’m not GP, but I can share video showing it driving across residential, city, highway, and even gravel roads all in a single trip without touching the steering wheel a single time over a 90min trip (using 12.5.4.1).
  - 2y ago
wstrange 2y ago
I have a 2024 Model 3, and it's a a great car. That being said, I'm under no illusion that the car will ever be self driving (unsupervised). 12.5.6 Still fails to read very obvious signs for 30 Km/h playgrounds zones. The current vehicles lack sufficient sensors, and likely do not have enough compute power and memory to cover all edge cases. I think it's a matter of time before Tesla faces a lawsuit over continual FSD claims. My hope is that the board will grow a spine and bring in a more focused CEO. Hats off to Elon for getting Tesla to this point, but right now they need a mature (and boring) CEO.
- pelorat 2y ago
  The board is family and friends, so them ousting him will never happen.
  - dboreham 2y ago
    At some point the risk of going to prison overtakes family loyalty.
    - dlisboa 2y ago
      There is no risk of going to prison. It just doesn’t happen, never have and never will, no matter how unfair that is. Board members and CEOs are not held accountable, ever.
      - rvnx 2y ago
        https://fortune.com/2023/01/24/google-meta-spotify-layoffs-ceo-sundar-pichai-mark-zuckerberg-daniel-ek-take-full-responsibility-what-that-means/ https://fortune.com/2023/01/24/google-meta-spotify-layoffs-c... As they say, they take "full responsibility"
      - llamaimperative 2y ago
        https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-enron-ceo-jeffrey-skilling-resentenced-168-months-fraud-conspiracy-charges https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-enron-ceo-jeffrey-skil...
jeffbee 2y ago
If I had a dime for every hackernews who commented that FSD version X was like a revelation compared to FSD version X-ε I'd have like thirty bucks. I will grant you that every release has surprisingly different behaviors. Here's an unintentionally hilarious meta-post on the subject https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29531915 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29531915
- modeless 2y ago
  Sure, plenty of people have been saying it's great for a long time, when it clearly was not (looking at you, Whole Mars Catalog). I was not saying it was super great back then. I have consistently been critical of Elon for promising human level self driving "next year" for like 10 years in a row and being wrong every time. He said it this year again and I still think he's wrong. But the rate of progress I see right now has me thinking that it may not be more than two or three years before that threshold is finally reached.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    The most important lesson I've had from me incorrectly predicting in 2009 that we'd have cars that don't come with steering wheels in 2018, and thinking that the progress I saw each year up to then was consistent with that prediction, is that it's really hard to guess how long it takes to walk the fractal path that is software R&D. How far are we now, 6 years later than I expected? Dunno. I suspect it's gonna need an invention on the same level as Diffusion or Transformer models to be able to get all the edge cases we can get, and that might mean we only get it with human level AGI. But I don't know that, it might be we've already got all we need architecture-wise and it's just a matter of scale. Only thing I can be really sure of is we're making progress "quite fast" in a non-objective use of the words — it's not going to need a re-run of 6 million years of mammilian evolution or anything like that, but even 20 years wall clock time would be a disappointment.
    - modeless 2y ago
      Waymo went driverless in 2020, maybe you weren't that far off. Predicting that in 2009 would have been pretty good. They could and should have had vehicles without steering wheels anytime since then, it's just a matter of hardware development. Their steering wheel free car program was derailed when they hired traditional car company executives.
m463 2y ago
> the rate of improvement in the past two months has been much faster than before. I suspect the free trials let tesla collect orders of magnitude more data on events requiring human intervention. If each one is a learning event, it could exponentially improve things. I tried it on a loaner car and thought it was pretty good. One bit of feedback I would give tesla - when you get some sort of FSD message on the center screen, make the text BIG and either make it linger more, or let you recall it. For example, it took me a couple tries to read the message that gave instructions on how to give tesla feedback on why you intervened. EDIT: look at this graph https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-14-at-4.12.48%E2%80%AFPM.jpg https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/10/Scree...
latexr 2y ago
> At the current rate of improvement it will be quite good within a year and in two or three I could see it actually reaching the point where it could operate unsupervised. That’s not a reasonable assumption. You can’t just extrapolate “software rate of improvement”, that’s not how it works.
- modeless 2y ago
  The timing of the rate of improvement increasing corresponds with finishing their switch to end-to-end machine learning. ML does have scaling laws actually. Tesla collects their own data, builds their own training clusters with both Nvidia hardware and their own custom hardware, and deploys their own custom inference hardware in the cars. There is no obstacle to them scaling up massively in all dimensions, which basically guarantees significant progress. Obviously you can disagree about whether that progress will be enough, but based on the evidence I see from using it, I think it will be.
josefx 2y ago
> it will be quite good within a year The regressions are getting worse. For the first release anouncement it was only hitting regulatory hurdles and now the entire software stack is broken? They should fire whoever is in charge and restore the state Elon tried to release a decade ago.

seizethecheese 2y ago

If this is the case, the calls for heavy regulation in this thread will lead to many more deaths than otherwise.

jvanderbot 2y ago

I have yet to see a difference. I let it highway drive for an hour and it cut off a semi, coming within 9 to 12 inches of the bumper for no reason. I heard about that one believe me. It got stuck in a side street trying to get to a target parking lot, shaking the wheel back and forth. It's no better so far and this is the first day.

modeless 2y ago
You have 12.6? As I said, it still makes mistakes and it is not ready yet. But 12.3 was much worse. It's the rate of improvement I am impressed with. I will also note that the predicted epidemic of crashes from people abusing FSD never happened. It's been on the road for a long time now. The idea that it is "irresponsible" to deploy it in its current state seems conclusively disproven. You can argue about exactly what the rate of crashes is but it seems clear that it has been at the very least no worse than normal driving.
- jvanderbot 2y ago
  Hm. I thought that was the latest release but it looks like no. But there seems to be no improvements from the last trial, so maybe 12.6 is magically better.
  - modeless 2y ago
    A lot of people have been getting the free trial with 12.3 still on their cars today. Tesla has really screwed up on the free trial for sure. Nobody should be getting it unless they have 12.6 at least.
    - jvanderbot 2y ago
      I have 12.5. maybe 12.6 is better but I've heard that before. Don't get me wrong without a concerted data team building maps a priori, this is pretty incredible. But from a pure performance standpoint it's a shaky product.
      - KaoruAoiShiho 2y ago
        The latest version is 12.5.6, I think he got confused by the .6 at the end. If you think that's bad then there isn't a better version available. However it is a dramatic improvement over 12.3, don't know how much you tested on it.
        modeless 2y ago
        You're right, thanks. One of the biggest updates in 12.5.6 is transitioning the highway Autopilot to FSD. If he has 12.5.4 then it may still be using the old non-FSD Autopilot on highways which would explain why he hasn't noticed improvement there; there hasn't been any until 12.5.6.
hilux 2y ago
> ... coming within 9 to 12 inches of the bumper for no reason. I heard about that one believe me. Oh dear. Glad you're okay!
eric_cc 2y ago
Is it possible you have a lemon? Genuine question. I’ve had nothing but positive experiences with FSD for the last several months and many thousands of miles.
- ben_w 2y ago
  I've had nothing but positive experiences with ChatGPT-4o, that doesn't make people wrong to criticise either as modelling their training data too much and generalising too little when they need to use it for something where the inference domain is too far outside the training domain.
- kelnos 2y ago
  If the incidence of problems is some relatively small number, like 5% or 10%, it's very easily possible that you've never personally seen a problem, but overall we'd still consider that the total incidence of problems is unacceptable. Please stop presenting arguments of the form "I haven't seen problems so people who have problems must be extreme outliers". At best it's ignorant, at worst it's actively in bad faith.
- londons_explore 2y ago
  I suspect the performance might vary widely depending on if you're on a road in california they have a lot of data on, or if its a road FSD has rarely seen before.
- dham 2y ago
  A lot of haters mistake safety critical disengagements with "oh the car is doing something I don't like or I wouldn't do" If you treat the car like it's a student driver or someone else driving, disengagements will go do. If you treat it like you're driving there's also something to complain about.

snypher 2y ago

So just a few more years of death and injury until they reach a finished product?

quailfarmer 2y ago
If the answer was yes, presumably there’s a tradeoff where that deal would be reasonable.
londons_explore 2y ago
So far, data points to it having far fewer crashes than a human alone. Teslas data shows that, but 3rd party data seems to imply the same.
- rvnx 2y ago
  It disconnects in case of dangerous situations, so every 33 miles to 77 miles driven (depending on the version), versus 400'000 miles for a human
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  Tesla does not release the data required to substantiate such a claim. It simply doesn’t and you’re either lying or being lied to.
  - londons_explore 2y ago
    tesla releases this data: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
    - rainsford 2y ago
      That data is not an apples to apples comparison unless autopilot is used in exactly the same mix of conditions as human driving. Tesla doesn't share that in the report, but I'd bet it's not equivalent. I personally tend to turn on driving automation features (in my non-Tesla car) in easier conditions and drive myself when anything unusual or complicated is going on, and I'd bet most drivers of Teslas and otherwise do the same. This is important because I'd bet similar data on the use of standard, non-adaptive cruise control would similarly show it's much safer than human drivers. But of course that would be because people use cruise control most in long-distance highway driving outside of congested areas, where you're least likely to have an accident.

misiti3780 2y ago

i have the same experience 12.5 is insanely good. HN is full of people that dont want self driving to succeed for some reason. fortunately, it's clear as day to some of us that tesla approach will work

ethbr1 2y ago
Curiousity about why they're against it and enunciating your why you think it will work would be more helpful.
- misiti3780 2y ago
  It's evident to Tesla drivers using Full Self-Driving (FSD) that the technology is rapidly improving and will likely succeed. The key reason for this anticipated success is data: any reasonably intelligent observer recognizes that training exceptional deep neural networks requires vast amounts of data, and Tesla has accumulated more relevant data than any of its competitors. Tesla recently held a robotaxi event, explicitly informing investors of their plans to launch an autonomous competitor to Uber. While Elon Musk's timeline predictions and politics may be controversial, his ability to achieve results and attract top engineering and management talent is undeniable.
  - ryandrake 2y ago
    Then why have we been just a year or two away from actual working self-driving, for the last 10 years? If I told my boss that my project would be done in a year, and then the following year said the same thing, and continued that for years, that’s not what “achieving results” means.
  - kelnos 2y ago
    > It's evident to Tesla drivers using Full Self-Driving (FSD) that the technology is rapidly improving and will likely succeed Sounds like Tesla drivers have been at the Kool-Aid then. But to be a bit more serious, the problem isn't necessarily that people don't think it's improving (I do believe it is) or that they will likely succeed (I'm not sure where I stand on this). The problem is that every year Musk says the next year will be the Year of FSD. And every next year, it doesn't materialize. This is like the Boy Who Cried Wolf; Musk has zero credibility with me when it comes to predictions. And that loss of credibility affects my feeling as to whether he'll be successful at all. On top of that, I'm not convinced that autonomous driving that only makes use of cameras will ever be reliably safer than human drivers.

bastawhiz 2y ago

> At the current rate of improvement it will be quite good within a year I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not sure "quite good" is the next step after "feels dangerous".

rvnx 2y ago
"Just round the corner" (2016)
- FireBeyond 2y ago
  Musk in 2016 (these are quotes, not paraphrases): "Self driving is a solved problem. We are just tuning the details." Musk in 2021: "Right now our highest priority is working on solving the problem."

delusional 2y ago

> That said, there is a night and day difference between FSD 12.3 that you experienced earlier this year and the latest version 12.6 >And I don't even have 12.6 yet, this is still 12.5; How am i supposed to take anything you say seriously when your only claim is a personal anecdote that doesn't even apply to your own argument. Please, think about what you're writing, and please stop repeating information you heard on youtube as if it's fact. The is one of the reasons (among many) that I can't take Tesla booster seriously. I have absolutely zero faith in your anecdote that you didn't touch the steering wheel. I bet it's a lie.

modeless 2y ago
The version I have is already a night and day difference from 12.3 and the current version is better still. Nothing I said is contradictory in the slightest. Apply some basic reasoning, please. I didn't say I didn't touch the steering wheel. I had my hands lightly touching it most of the time, as one should for safety. I occasionally used the controls on the wheel as well as the accelerator pedal to adjust the set speed, and I used the turn signal to suggest lane changes from time to time, though most lane choices were made automatically. But I did not turn the wheel. All turning was performed by the system. (If you turn the wheel manually the system disengages). Other than parking, as I mentioned, though FSD did handle some navigation into and inside parking lots.
eric_cc 2y ago
I can second this experience. I rarely touch the wheel anymore. I’d say I’m 98% FSD. I take over in school zones, parking lots, and complex construction.
jsjohnst 2y ago
> I have absolutely zero faith in your anecdote that you didn't touch the steering wheel. I bet it's a lie. I’m not GP, but I can share video showing it driving across residential, city, highway, and even gravel roads all in a single trip without touching the steering wheel a single time over a 90min trip (using 12.5.4.1).
- 2y ago

wstrange 2y ago

I have a 2024 Model 3, and it's a a great car. That being said, I'm under no illusion that the car will ever be self driving (unsupervised). 12.5.6 Still fails to read very obvious signs for 30 Km/h playgrounds zones. The current vehicles lack sufficient sensors, and likely do not have enough compute power and memory to cover all edge cases. I think it's a matter of time before Tesla faces a lawsuit over continual FSD claims. My hope is that the board will grow a spine and bring in a more focused CEO. Hats off to Elon for getting Tesla to this point, but right now they need a mature (and boring) CEO.

pelorat 2y ago
The board is family and friends, so them ousting him will never happen.
- dboreham 2y ago
  At some point the risk of going to prison overtakes family loyalty.
  - dlisboa 2y ago
    There is no risk of going to prison. It just doesn’t happen, never have and never will, no matter how unfair that is. Board members and CEOs are not held accountable, ever.
    - rvnx 2y ago
      https://fortune.com/2023/01/24/google-meta-spotify-layoffs-ceo-sundar-pichai-mark-zuckerberg-daniel-ek-take-full-responsibility-what-that-means/ https://fortune.com/2023/01/24/google-meta-spotify-layoffs-c... As they say, they take "full responsibility"
    - llamaimperative 2y ago
      https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-enron-ceo-jeffrey-skilling-resentenced-168-months-fraud-conspiracy-charges https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-enron-ceo-jeffrey-skil...

jeffbee 2y ago

If I had a dime for every hackernews who commented that FSD version X was like a revelation compared to FSD version X-ε I'd have like thirty bucks. I will grant you that every release has surprisingly different behaviors. Here's an unintentionally hilarious meta-post on the subject https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29531915 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29531915

modeless 2y ago
Sure, plenty of people have been saying it's great for a long time, when it clearly was not (looking at you, Whole Mars Catalog). I was not saying it was super great back then. I have consistently been critical of Elon for promising human level self driving "next year" for like 10 years in a row and being wrong every time. He said it this year again and I still think he's wrong. But the rate of progress I see right now has me thinking that it may not be more than two or three years before that threshold is finally reached.
- ben_w 2y ago
  The most important lesson I've had from me incorrectly predicting in 2009 that we'd have cars that don't come with steering wheels in 2018, and thinking that the progress I saw each year up to then was consistent with that prediction, is that it's really hard to guess how long it takes to walk the fractal path that is software R&D. How far are we now, 6 years later than I expected? Dunno. I suspect it's gonna need an invention on the same level as Diffusion or Transformer models to be able to get all the edge cases we can get, and that might mean we only get it with human level AGI. But I don't know that, it might be we've already got all we need architecture-wise and it's just a matter of scale. Only thing I can be really sure of is we're making progress "quite fast" in a non-objective use of the words — it's not going to need a re-run of 6 million years of mammilian evolution or anything like that, but even 20 years wall clock time would be a disappointment.
  - modeless 2y ago
    Waymo went driverless in 2020, maybe you weren't that far off. Predicting that in 2009 would have been pretty good. They could and should have had vehicles without steering wheels anytime since then, it's just a matter of hardware development. Their steering wheel free car program was derailed when they hired traditional car company executives.

m463 2y ago

> the rate of improvement in the past two months has been much faster than before. I suspect the free trials let tesla collect orders of magnitude more data on events requiring human intervention. If each one is a learning event, it could exponentially improve things. I tried it on a loaner car and thought it was pretty good. One bit of feedback I would give tesla - when you get some sort of FSD message on the center screen, make the text BIG and either make it linger more, or let you recall it. For example, it took me a couple tries to read the message that gave instructions on how to give tesla feedback on why you intervened. EDIT: look at this graph https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-14-at-4.12.48%E2%80%AFPM.jpg https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/10/Scree...

latexr 2y ago

> At the current rate of improvement it will be quite good within a year and in two or three I could see it actually reaching the point where it could operate unsupervised. That’s not a reasonable assumption. You can’t just extrapolate “software rate of improvement”, that’s not how it works.

modeless 2y ago
The timing of the rate of improvement increasing corresponds with finishing their switch to end-to-end machine learning. ML does have scaling laws actually. Tesla collects their own data, builds their own training clusters with both Nvidia hardware and their own custom hardware, and deploys their own custom inference hardware in the cars. There is no obstacle to them scaling up massively in all dimensions, which basically guarantees significant progress. Obviously you can disagree about whether that progress will be enough, but based on the evidence I see from using it, I think it will be.

josefx 2y ago

> it will be quite good within a year The regressions are getting worse. For the first release anouncement it was only hitting regulatory hurdles and now the entire software stack is broken? They should fire whoever is in charge and restore the state Elon tried to release a decade ago.