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> And? It's not like the US is a major steel producer with annual production more than 10x less than China's. China is a major outlier, with more than half of

> And? It's not like the US is a major steel producer with annual production more than 10x less than China's. China is a major outlier, with more than half of global production -- in other words, all other countries combined don't equal China. Yet India is the number 2 producer, Japan is #3, and the US is #4. Germany is #8 globally, but it has a historically large steel production base, and it's #1 in the EU by far, so I included it in the statement nevertheless. What I wrote could be restated: "That's substantially more than the total output of the #2, #3, and #4-ranked steel producing nations." It's a hell of a lot.

defrost 2y ago
Alternatively, there's a room with a single 10ft tall person, a few 1 ft tall people and and host of much smaller people. A four foot tall person arrives.
- A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
  > A four foot tall person arrives. But there is no such person arriving -- instead, there's an entity claiming to take four feet off the room's total height. A better analogy would be that there's a room with a feast laid out: A 100-pound side of beef, a few 10-pound roasts, and a host of steaks in various smaller sizes scattered around. The table is laid out for dozens or hundreds. Then a single man comes in and says that he's taking forty pounds of meat. This would be, at best, disruptive -- unless the other guests at the table don't plan on eating much.
  - defrost 2y ago
    > But there is no such person arriving -- instead, there's an entity claiming to take four feet off the room's total height. Is there? I wasn't aware the gloabl supply of iron ore and thermal coal was capped at a fixed ceiling. I'm guessing you've never personally been part of the annual delivery of > 400 million tonnes of raw material. I have. I'm guessing you've never built out a global database of mineral and energy resources from leases through exploration to production. I have. I specifically mentioned in a peer comment that another billion tonne per annum iron ore production field was opening .. did you miss that? The US, German, et al steel production and consumption is so low as they don't use, relatively, much steel. China's steel consumption grew so high as they built out their infrastructure over the past 30 years. The supply of raw materials grew with demand. Here, IF the Saudi's go through with their stated intent to spend a trillion+ on a mega city then what happened for China since the 1970's in order to deliver for that demand will happen for the Saudi's over the next two decades (as the ability to hit that scale is now well grounded in practical reality). They have the money, if this is how they proceed to spend it then the questions are: * will they import steel or raw materials to make their own steel. * what impact will this have on the global carbon budget, can they be persuaded to invest in green steel at hundred+ million tonne per annum scale. It's not the case that they'll be "depriving" others who want steel from a limited supply.
    - A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
      Speaking of missing things. Uh, I'm guessing you missed the OP? > "The Neom giga-project in Saudi Arabia is currently using one fifth of all the steel produced in the world, an official said on Monday." The key word there is "currently." It is also, emphatically, not the case. So perhaps the guy misspoke and was making a forecast, but that's not what was claimed. What might happen a decade hence, if the Saudis build out capacity, is another matter entirely. I don't doubt their ability to spend vast sums of money on steel and concrete. Who knows whether or not they'll go through with it?
      - defrost 2y ago
        Saw it, ignored it, clearly a translation error. I hadn't realised you had taken it seriously. Explains a lot. Most people in my experience would take all of this as planning and logistics, not as a current reality. After all, further down: Neom’s demand for steel meant “we are 20 percent of the global steel market. If you look at our demand in elevators, cement and so on … put simply, Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next few decades,” Al Moneef said. It's all in the context of planned demand.

defrost 2y ago

Alternatively, there's a room with a single 10ft tall person, a few 1 ft tall people and and host of much smaller people. A four foot tall person arrives.

A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
> A four foot tall person arrives. But there is no such person arriving -- instead, there's an entity claiming to take four feet off the room's total height. A better analogy would be that there's a room with a feast laid out: A 100-pound side of beef, a few 10-pound roasts, and a host of steaks in various smaller sizes scattered around. The table is laid out for dozens or hundreds. Then a single man comes in and says that he's taking forty pounds of meat. This would be, at best, disruptive -- unless the other guests at the table don't plan on eating much.
- defrost 2y ago
  > But there is no such person arriving -- instead, there's an entity claiming to take four feet off the room's total height. Is there? I wasn't aware the gloabl supply of iron ore and thermal coal was capped at a fixed ceiling. I'm guessing you've never personally been part of the annual delivery of > 400 million tonnes of raw material. I have. I'm guessing you've never built out a global database of mineral and energy resources from leases through exploration to production. I have. I specifically mentioned in a peer comment that another billion tonne per annum iron ore production field was opening .. did you miss that? The US, German, et al steel production and consumption is so low as they don't use, relatively, much steel. China's steel consumption grew so high as they built out their infrastructure over the past 30 years. The supply of raw materials grew with demand. Here, IF the Saudi's go through with their stated intent to spend a trillion+ on a mega city then what happened for China since the 1970's in order to deliver for that demand will happen for the Saudi's over the next two decades (as the ability to hit that scale is now well grounded in practical reality). They have the money, if this is how they proceed to spend it then the questions are: * will they import steel or raw materials to make their own steel. * what impact will this have on the global carbon budget, can they be persuaded to invest in green steel at hundred+ million tonne per annum scale. It's not the case that they'll be "depriving" others who want steel from a limited supply.
  - A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
    Speaking of missing things. Uh, I'm guessing you missed the OP? > "The Neom giga-project in Saudi Arabia is currently using one fifth of all the steel produced in the world, an official said on Monday." The key word there is "currently." It is also, emphatically, not the case. So perhaps the guy misspoke and was making a forecast, but that's not what was claimed. What might happen a decade hence, if the Saudis build out capacity, is another matter entirely. I don't doubt their ability to spend vast sums of money on steel and concrete. Who knows whether or not they'll go through with it?
    - defrost 2y ago
      Saw it, ignored it, clearly a translation error. I hadn't realised you had taken it seriously. Explains a lot. Most people in my experience would take all of this as planning and logistics, not as a current reality. After all, further down: Neom’s demand for steel meant “we are 20 percent of the global steel market. If you look at our demand in elevators, cement and so on … put simply, Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next few decades,” Al Moneef said. It's all in the context of planned demand.