5 ms·

Just because it has taken 10 years longer than promised doesn't mean that it will never happen. FSD has made huge improvements this year and is on track to keep

Just because it has taken 10 years longer than promised doesn't mean that it will never happen. FSD has made huge improvements this year and is on track to keep up the current pace so it actually does seem closer than ever.

UltraSane 2y ago
The current vision-only system is a clear technological dead-end that can't go much more than 10 miles between "disengagements". To be clear, "disengagements" would be crashes if a human wasn't ready to take over. And not needing a human driver is THE ENTIRE POINT! I will admit Musk isn't a liar when Tesla has FSD at least as good as Waymo's system and Tesla accepts legal liability for any crashes.
- valval 2y ago
  You’re wrong. Nothing about this is clear, and you’d be silly to claim otherwise. You should explore your bias and where it’s coming from.
  - UltraSane 2y ago
    No Tesla vehicle has legally driven even a single mile with no driver in the driver's seat. They aren't even trying to play Waymo's game. The latest FSD software's failure rate is at least 100 times higher than it needs to be.
    - fallingknife 2y ago
      That's a stupid point. I've been in a Tesla that's driven a mile by itself. It makes no difference if a person is in the seat.
      - UltraSane 2y ago
        "It makes no difference if a person is in the seat." It does when Musk is claiming that Tesla is going to sell a car with no steering wheel! The current Tesla FSD fails so often that a human HAS to be in the driver seat ready to take over at any moment. You really don't understand the enormous difference between the current crappy level 2 Tesla FSD and Waymo's level 4 system?
        valval 2y ago
        The difference is that Tesla has a general algorithm, while Waymo is hard coding scenarios. I never really got why people bring Waymo up every time Tesla’s FSD is mentioned. Waymo isn’t competing with Tesla’s vision.
        porphyra 2y ago
        Waymo uses a learned planner and is far from "hardcoded". In any case, imo both of these can be true: * Tesla FSD works surprisingly well and improving capabilities to hands free actual autonomy isn't as far fetched as one might think. * Waymo beat them to robotaxi deployment and scaling up to multiple cities may not be as hard as people say. It seems that self driving car fans are way too tribal and seem to be convinced that the "other side" sucks and is guaranteed to fail. In reality, it is very unclear as both strategies have their merits and only time will tell in the long run.
        UltraSane 2y ago
        " Tesla FSD works surprisingly well and improving capabilities to hands free actual autonomy isn't as far fetched as one might think" Except FSD doesn't work surprisingly well and there is no way it will get as good as Waymo using vision-only. "It seems that self driving car fans are way too tribal and seem to be convinced that the "other side" sucks and is guaranteed to fail." I'm not being tribal, I'm being realistic based on the very public performance of both systems. If Musk was serious about his Robotaxi claims then Tesla would be operating very differently. Instead it is pretty obvious it all a con to inflate Tesla shares beyond all reason.
        2y ago
gitaarik 2y ago
Just like AGI and the year of the Linux desktop ;P
- porphyra 2y ago
  Honestly LLMs were a big step towards AGI, and gaming on Linux is practically flawless now. Just played through Black Myth Wukong with no issues out of the box.
  - UltraSane 2y ago
    LLMs are to AGI as A ladder is to getting to orbit. I can seem LLMs serving as a kind of memory for an AGI but something fundamentally different will be needed for true reasoning and continues self-improvement.

UltraSane 2y ago

The current vision-only system is a clear technological dead-end that can't go much more than 10 miles between "disengagements". To be clear, "disengagements" would be crashes if a human wasn't ready to take over. And not needing a human driver is THE ENTIRE POINT! I will admit Musk isn't a liar when Tesla has FSD at least as good as Waymo's system and Tesla accepts legal liability for any crashes.

valval 2y ago
You’re wrong. Nothing about this is clear, and you’d be silly to claim otherwise. You should explore your bias and where it’s coming from.
- UltraSane 2y ago
  No Tesla vehicle has legally driven even a single mile with no driver in the driver's seat. They aren't even trying to play Waymo's game. The latest FSD software's failure rate is at least 100 times higher than it needs to be.
  - fallingknife 2y ago
    That's a stupid point. I've been in a Tesla that's driven a mile by itself. It makes no difference if a person is in the seat.
    - UltraSane 2y ago
      "It makes no difference if a person is in the seat." It does when Musk is claiming that Tesla is going to sell a car with no steering wheel! The current Tesla FSD fails so often that a human HAS to be in the driver seat ready to take over at any moment. You really don't understand the enormous difference between the current crappy level 2 Tesla FSD and Waymo's level 4 system?
      - valval 2y ago
        The difference is that Tesla has a general algorithm, while Waymo is hard coding scenarios. I never really got why people bring Waymo up every time Tesla’s FSD is mentioned. Waymo isn’t competing with Tesla’s vision.
        porphyra 2y ago
        Waymo uses a learned planner and is far from "hardcoded". In any case, imo both of these can be true: * Tesla FSD works surprisingly well and improving capabilities to hands free actual autonomy isn't as far fetched as one might think. * Waymo beat them to robotaxi deployment and scaling up to multiple cities may not be as hard as people say. It seems that self driving car fans are way too tribal and seem to be convinced that the "other side" sucks and is guaranteed to fail. In reality, it is very unclear as both strategies have their merits and only time will tell in the long run.
        UltraSane 2y ago
        " Tesla FSD works surprisingly well and improving capabilities to hands free actual autonomy isn't as far fetched as one might think" Except FSD doesn't work surprisingly well and there is no way it will get as good as Waymo using vision-only. "It seems that self driving car fans are way too tribal and seem to be convinced that the "other side" sucks and is guaranteed to fail." I'm not being tribal, I'm being realistic based on the very public performance of both systems. If Musk was serious about his Robotaxi claims then Tesla would be operating very differently. Instead it is pretty obvious it all a con to inflate Tesla shares beyond all reason.
        2y ago

gitaarik 2y ago

Just like AGI and the year of the Linux desktop ;P

porphyra 2y ago
Honestly LLMs were a big step towards AGI, and gaming on Linux is practically flawless now. Just played through Black Myth Wukong with no issues out of the box.
- UltraSane 2y ago
  LLMs are to AGI as A ladder is to getting to orbit. I can seem LLMs serving as a kind of memory for an AGI but something fundamentally different will be needed for true reasoning and continues self-improvement.