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I'm astonished at how long Musk has been able to keep his autonomous driving con going. He has been lying about it to inflate Tesla shares for 10 years now.

ryandrake 2y ago
Without consequences, there is no reason to stop.
- UltraSane 2y ago
  When is the market going to realize Tesla is NEVER going to have real level 4 autonomy where Tesla takes legal liability for crashes the way Waymo has?
  - tstrimple 2y ago
    Market cares far more about money than lives. Until the lives lost cost more than their profit, they give less than zero fucks. Capitalism. Yay!
  - Youssef-1992 2y ago
    [flagged]
jjmarr 2y ago
[flagged]
- UltraSane 2y ago
  It "works" if you mean often does incredibly stupid and dangerous things and requires a person to be ready to take over for it at any moment to prevent a crash. So far no Tesla car has ever legally driven even a single mile without a person in the driver's seat.
  - jjmarr 2y ago
    And? How does that make Elon Musk a con artist? It's possible to physically get in a Tesla and have it drive you from point A to point B. That's a self-driving car. You're saying it's unreliable, makes mistakes, and can be used illegally. That doesn't mean the car can't drive itself, just that it doesn't do a very good job at "self-driving"
    - UltraSane 2y ago
      "How does that make Elon Musk a con artist?" Because since 2014 he has made wildly unrealistic claims that he is smart enough to know were BS. December 2015: “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” January 2016 In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY June 2016: “I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans.” October 2016 By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging. "A 2016 video that Tesla used to promote its self-driving technology was staged to show capabilities like stopping at a red light and accelerating at a green light that the system did not have, according to testimony by a senior engineer." January 2017 The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year. March 2017: “I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] in about two years.” May 2017 Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this. March 2018 I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person. February 2019 We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year April 2019 We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year. May 2019 We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too December 2020 I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100% January 2021 FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021
- two_handfuls 2y ago
  I tried it. It drives worse than a teenager. There is absolutely no way this can safely drive a car without supervision.
  - valval 2y ago
    It’s been safer than a human driver for years. It’s also not meant to be unsupervised.
    - gitaarik 2y ago
      Something about these two statements seem to be in conflict with each other, but maybe that is just kinda Tesla PR talk.
      - valval 2y ago
        It’s quite easy to be safer than a human driver, since humans are just human. Supervision is required because the system can face edge cases.
        gitaarik 2y ago
        Ah ok so if humans would be supervised for their edge cases then humans would actually be safer!
        UltraSane 2y ago
        Edge cases like intersections?
      - UltraSane 2y ago
        It is cultish doublespeak.
    - lawn 2y ago
      Safer than a human driver... According to Tesla.
    - two_handfuls 2y ago
- peutetre 2y ago
  Musk believes Tesla without FSD is "worth basically zero": https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-worth-basically-zero-without-self-driving-2022-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-worth-basica... Musk is now moving the FSD work to xAI, taking what supposedly makes the public company Tesla valuable and placing it into his private ownership: https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-xai-partnership-elon-musk-30e22313 https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-xai-partnership-elon-musk-30e... Seems like a good way to privatize shareholder capital.
porphyra 2y ago
Just because it has taken 10 years longer than promised doesn't mean that it will never happen. FSD has made huge improvements this year and is on track to keep up the current pace so it actually does seem closer than ever.
- UltraSane 2y ago
  The current vision-only system is a clear technological dead-end that can't go much more than 10 miles between "disengagements". To be clear, "disengagements" would be crashes if a human wasn't ready to take over. And not needing a human driver is THE ENTIRE POINT! I will admit Musk isn't a liar when Tesla has FSD at least as good as Waymo's system and Tesla accepts legal liability for any crashes.
  - valval 2y ago
    You’re wrong. Nothing about this is clear, and you’d be silly to claim otherwise. You should explore your bias and where it’s coming from.
    - UltraSane 2y ago
      No Tesla vehicle has legally driven even a single mile with no driver in the driver's seat. They aren't even trying to play Waymo's game. The latest FSD software's failure rate is at least 100 times higher than it needs to be.
      - fallingknife 2y ago
        That's a stupid point. I've been in a Tesla that's driven a mile by itself. It makes no difference if a person is in the seat.
        UltraSane 2y ago
        "It makes no difference if a person is in the seat." It does when Musk is claiming that Tesla is going to sell a car with no steering wheel! The current Tesla FSD fails so often that a human HAS to be in the driver seat ready to take over at any moment. You really don't understand the enormous difference between the current crappy level 2 Tesla FSD and Waymo's level 4 system?
heisenbit 2y ago
"I'm a technologist, I know a lot about computers," Musk told the crowd during the event. "And I'm like, the last thing I would do is trust a computer program, because it's just too easy to hack."

ryandrake 2y ago

Without consequences, there is no reason to stop.

UltraSane 2y ago
When is the market going to realize Tesla is NEVER going to have real level 4 autonomy where Tesla takes legal liability for crashes the way Waymo has?
- tstrimple 2y ago
  Market cares far more about money than lives. Until the lives lost cost more than their profit, they give less than zero fucks. Capitalism. Yay!
- Youssef-1992 2y ago
  [flagged]

jjmarr 2y ago

[flagged]

UltraSane 2y ago
It "works" if you mean often does incredibly stupid and dangerous things and requires a person to be ready to take over for it at any moment to prevent a crash. So far no Tesla car has ever legally driven even a single mile without a person in the driver's seat.
- jjmarr 2y ago
  And? How does that make Elon Musk a con artist? It's possible to physically get in a Tesla and have it drive you from point A to point B. That's a self-driving car. You're saying it's unreliable, makes mistakes, and can be used illegally. That doesn't mean the car can't drive itself, just that it doesn't do a very good job at "self-driving"
  - UltraSane 2y ago
    "How does that make Elon Musk a con artist?" Because since 2014 he has made wildly unrealistic claims that he is smart enough to know were BS. December 2015: “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” January 2016 In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY June 2016: “I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans.” October 2016 By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging. "A 2016 video that Tesla used to promote its self-driving technology was staged to show capabilities like stopping at a red light and accelerating at a green light that the system did not have, according to testimony by a senior engineer." January 2017 The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year. March 2017: “I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] in about two years.” May 2017 Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this. March 2018 I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person. February 2019 We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year April 2019 We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year. May 2019 We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too December 2020 I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100% January 2021 FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021
two_handfuls 2y ago
I tried it. It drives worse than a teenager. There is absolutely no way this can safely drive a car without supervision.
- valval 2y ago
  It’s been safer than a human driver for years. It’s also not meant to be unsupervised.
  - gitaarik 2y ago
    Something about these two statements seem to be in conflict with each other, but maybe that is just kinda Tesla PR talk.
    - valval 2y ago
      It’s quite easy to be safer than a human driver, since humans are just human. Supervision is required because the system can face edge cases.
      - gitaarik 2y ago
        Ah ok so if humans would be supervised for their edge cases then humans would actually be safer!
      - UltraSane 2y ago
        Edge cases like intersections?
    - UltraSane 2y ago
      It is cultish doublespeak.
  - lawn 2y ago
    Safer than a human driver... According to Tesla.
  - two_handfuls 2y ago
peutetre 2y ago
Musk believes Tesla without FSD is "worth basically zero": https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-worth-basically-zero-without-self-driving-2022-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-worth-basica... Musk is now moving the FSD work to xAI, taking what supposedly makes the public company Tesla valuable and placing it into his private ownership: https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-xai-partnership-elon-musk-30e22313 https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-xai-partnership-elon-musk-30e... Seems like a good way to privatize shareholder capital.

porphyra 2y ago

Just because it has taken 10 years longer than promised doesn't mean that it will never happen. FSD has made huge improvements this year and is on track to keep up the current pace so it actually does seem closer than ever.

UltraSane 2y ago
The current vision-only system is a clear technological dead-end that can't go much more than 10 miles between "disengagements". To be clear, "disengagements" would be crashes if a human wasn't ready to take over. And not needing a human driver is THE ENTIRE POINT! I will admit Musk isn't a liar when Tesla has FSD at least as good as Waymo's system and Tesla accepts legal liability for any crashes.
- valval 2y ago
  You’re wrong. Nothing about this is clear, and you’d be silly to claim otherwise. You should explore your bias and where it’s coming from.
  - UltraSane 2y ago
    No Tesla vehicle has legally driven even a single mile with no driver in the driver's seat. They aren't even trying to play Waymo's game. The latest FSD software's failure rate is at least 100 times higher than it needs to be.
    - fallingknife 2y ago
      That's a stupid point. I've been in a Tesla that's driven a mile by itself. It makes no difference if a person is in the seat.
      - UltraSane 2y ago
        "It makes no difference if a person is in the seat." It does when Musk is claiming that Tesla is going to sell a car with no steering wheel! The current Tesla FSD fails so often that a human HAS to be in the driver seat ready to take over at any moment. You really don't understand the enormous difference between the current crappy level 2 Tesla FSD and Waymo's level 4 system?

heisenbit 2y ago

"I'm a technologist, I know a lot about computers," Musk told the crowd during the event. "And I'm like, the last thing I would do is trust a computer program, because it's just too easy to hack."