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Its not a coincidence that the Japanese Economy imploded around the same time. If your country has 40% of global corporate market cap value and then it drops to

by cen4 2y ago

Its not a coincidence that the Japanese Economy imploded around the same time. If your country has 40% of global corporate market cap value and then it drops to 8% after an asset bubble bursts, how many ambitious long term projects you can sustain drops too. The US came really close to following the same trajectory with the 2008 bubble bursting. If the banks hadn't been kept afloat and there were alternatives to Wall St a large chunk of the tech sector would have tanked or moved out. There is no global tech leadership possible, if there is no global Finance domination.

shiroiushi 2y ago
>a large chunk of the tech sector would have tanked or moved out Where exactly would the tech sector have moved to? There's no other country that's really able to absorb high-skill immigrants the way American can and put them to work in that field.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > Where exactly would the tech sector have moved to It would have been much more decentralized. Entire generations of Indian, Korean, Chinese, Canadian, Israeli, and European origin founders and executives helped build the US tech industry. Heck, a lot of prominent Chinese and Indian startups got their start due to the GFC era layoffs and hiring freezes in the tech industry. Look at Flipkart and Ola in India, ByteDance in China, and Coupang in SK/US for example COVID and the recent layoffs had a similar impact on the startup scene as well.
  - shiroiushi 2y ago
    >Entire generations of Indian, Korean, Chinese, Canadian, and European origin founders and executives helped build the US tech industry. Yes, but they would not have built such companies if they were stuck in their own countries. There's a reason they left those countries. Europe, for instance, is notorious for being extremely unfriendly to startups. >Look at Flipkart and Ola in India and ByteDance in China for example I've never even heard of the Indian companies here. As for ByteDance, TikTok is likely to be banned in the US and maybe elsewhere because it seems to be a tool for the CCP. It would be difficult to impossible for any Chinese tech company to achieve the status of Google or Microsoft for this reason. Companies in these countries may be able to do well inside their own countries, but they can never achieve real global dominance.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > There's a reason they left those countries Pay and upskilling. But domestic tech salaries have risen across Asia now, and the US has gotten much harder to immigrate to. Most people who joined the tech industry in the US from China and India in the 2000s felt they were getting a bum deal at the time in those countries because of a lack of domestic options, but that's changed since 2008 - especially after the 2008-10 layoffs (I remember those - they were scary, lots of my middle school friends had to move back to China and India because their parents lost their H1B or EB1/2 sponsor). The next generation of Chinese and Indian startups are now being founded by former diaspora members after the hiring freezes during COVID. > I've never even heard of the Indian companies here. for ByteDance That's on you tbh. Not everyone is expected to follow every industry trend per country, but these are all unicorns or exited unicorns that were founded by cohorts in the late 2000s who had the option to move abroad but chose to remain in their own countries. ByteDance for example had PMF in China well before it entered America as "TikTok", and Flipkart generated $7B a revenue a year - which isn't shabby by Indian or even American standards. > Companies in these countries may be able to do well inside their own countries, but they can never achieve real global dominance First, Big Tech (FAANG) is not representative of the tech industry as a whole, and does not have strong PMF in plenty of markets and sectors abroad. Secondly, this also underestimates the fact that most tech companies have strategy and R&D making parts of their organizations abroad now. Plenty of NLP work that became LLMs came out of research done in Microsoft China and India, Google Pay's development org is largely in India, Apple's R&D labs in China and India played a major role in developing the manufacturing process and chip design respectively for the iPhone, etc.
      - edm0nd 2y ago
        >First, Big Tech (FAANG) is not representative of the tech industry as a whole, and does not have strong PMF in plenty of markets and sectors abroad. It's not? Android is the most popular OS in the world with Apple and Microsoft making up the bulk of the rest. >As of September 2024, Android, a mobile OS that uses the Linux kernel, has 45.38% of the global market and is the world's most widely used operating system. This is followed by Windows with 25.61%, iOS with 18.39%, macOS with 5.53%, and Desktop Linux with 1.64%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_syste...
AlbertCory 2y ago
No, the Japanese implosion came at the end of the 80's and early 90's. That book is from 1982.
- binary132 2y ago
  GP is saying the USian tech industry nearly shared the same fate after our bubble burst in 2008
ww520 2y ago
That’s unlikely for 2008. Tech companies and large corps in general had massed a huge amount of cash after the dotcom meltdown.
Yeul 2y ago
The ability to run a trillion dollar deficit cannot be downplayed. When the Netherlands has too much debt politicians and civil servants alike go into panic mode.
082349872349872 2y ago
anyone know of discussion on whether the Plaza Accord had had any effect on the japanese bubble?

by cen4 2y ago

shiroiushi 2y ago

>a large chunk of the tech sector would have tanked or moved out Where exactly would the tech sector have moved to? There's no other country that's really able to absorb high-skill immigrants the way American can and put them to work in that field.

alephnerd 2y ago
> Where exactly would the tech sector have moved to It would have been much more decentralized. Entire generations of Indian, Korean, Chinese, Canadian, Israeli, and European origin founders and executives helped build the US tech industry. Heck, a lot of prominent Chinese and Indian startups got their start due to the GFC era layoffs and hiring freezes in the tech industry. Look at Flipkart and Ola in India, ByteDance in China, and Coupang in SK/US for example COVID and the recent layoffs had a similar impact on the startup scene as well.
- shiroiushi 2y ago
  >Entire generations of Indian, Korean, Chinese, Canadian, and European origin founders and executives helped build the US tech industry. Yes, but they would not have built such companies if they were stuck in their own countries. There's a reason they left those countries. Europe, for instance, is notorious for being extremely unfriendly to startups. >Look at Flipkart and Ola in India and ByteDance in China for example I've never even heard of the Indian companies here. As for ByteDance, TikTok is likely to be banned in the US and maybe elsewhere because it seems to be a tool for the CCP. It would be difficult to impossible for any Chinese tech company to achieve the status of Google or Microsoft for this reason. Companies in these countries may be able to do well inside their own countries, but they can never achieve real global dominance.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > There's a reason they left those countries Pay and upskilling. But domestic tech salaries have risen across Asia now, and the US has gotten much harder to immigrate to. Most people who joined the tech industry in the US from China and India in the 2000s felt they were getting a bum deal at the time in those countries because of a lack of domestic options, but that's changed since 2008 - especially after the 2008-10 layoffs (I remember those - they were scary, lots of my middle school friends had to move back to China and India because their parents lost their H1B or EB1/2 sponsor). The next generation of Chinese and Indian startups are now being founded by former diaspora members after the hiring freezes during COVID. > I've never even heard of the Indian companies here. for ByteDance That's on you tbh. Not everyone is expected to follow every industry trend per country, but these are all unicorns or exited unicorns that were founded by cohorts in the late 2000s who had the option to move abroad but chose to remain in their own countries. ByteDance for example had PMF in China well before it entered America as "TikTok", and Flipkart generated $7B a revenue a year - which isn't shabby by Indian or even American standards. > Companies in these countries may be able to do well inside their own countries, but they can never achieve real global dominance First, Big Tech (FAANG) is not representative of the tech industry as a whole, and does not have strong PMF in plenty of markets and sectors abroad. Secondly, this also underestimates the fact that most tech companies have strategy and R&D making parts of their organizations abroad now. Plenty of NLP work that became LLMs came out of research done in Microsoft China and India, Google Pay's development org is largely in India, Apple's R&D labs in China and India played a major role in developing the manufacturing process and chip design respectively for the iPhone, etc.
    - edm0nd 2y ago
      >First, Big Tech (FAANG) is not representative of the tech industry as a whole, and does not have strong PMF in plenty of markets and sectors abroad. It's not? Android is the most popular OS in the world with Apple and Microsoft making up the bulk of the rest. >As of September 2024, Android, a mobile OS that uses the Linux kernel, has 45.38% of the global market and is the world's most widely used operating system. This is followed by Windows with 25.61%, iOS with 18.39%, macOS with 5.53%, and Desktop Linux with 1.64%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_syste...

AlbertCory 2y ago

No, the Japanese implosion came at the end of the 80's and early 90's. That book is from 1982.

binary132 2y ago
GP is saying the USian tech industry nearly shared the same fate after our bubble burst in 2008

ww520 2y ago

That’s unlikely for 2008. Tech companies and large corps in general had massed a huge amount of cash after the dotcom meltdown.

Yeul 2y ago

The ability to run a trillion dollar deficit cannot be downplayed. When the Netherlands has too much debt politicians and civil servants alike go into panic mode.

082349872349872 2y ago

anyone know of discussion on whether the Plaza Accord had had any effect on the japanese bubble?