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So how durable these EVs are? What's their lifespan? A Toyota would last for 20 years easily for example and a 5000-8000 USD would almost renew the engine and t

by wg0 2y ago

So how durable these EVs are? What's their lifespan? A Toyota would last for 20 years easily for example and a 5000-8000 USD would almost renew the engine and transmission. EVs don't cross a decade and that too with declining battery life thus shorter range with every year. Therefore EVs loose their value proposition faster in countries with greater distances (Russia, US, Canada, China itself) Batteries themselves are almost half the price of vehicle itself.

jaggs 2y ago
That's strange you talk about EVs not lasting longer than 10 years. Do you have a source for that? In Europe there are EVs happily running after 10 years with minimal battery degradation. And that's early generation Nissan's. The later models have vastly improved battery technology, with CATL just releasing a battery which is guaranteed for 1 million kilometres. The point about replacing the engine and transmission is ICE is also telling. EVs have a fraction of the moving parts of ICE, and no explosions in cylinders to degrade a lump of metal. And as for the cost of batteries, I think you'll find that battery costs have been plummeting for the past 15 years as the technology improves dramatically. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-are-expected-to-fall-almost-50-percent-by-2025 https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/electric-vehi.... China are making premium EVs now for half the price of ICE equivalents. The race is actually over, it's just that the US hasn't heard yet. Oh and finally? China has launched a growing number of 1000 kilometer range EVs in the past two years. That number is also expected to grow as more solid state batteries hit the market.
maxglute 2y ago
Besides EV maintainence already being 25-50% cheaper. CATL/BYD aiming for ~$50 per kWh next few years, i.e. 60kWh pack drop from $6000 to $3000. Annual light vehicle stats for PRC/CA/RU/US is 12000-20000km, each 10000km saves ~$600 in gas (at least according to US calculators). Looking at less than 5 years to payback for new battery pack by replacement time few years from now on from fuel savings alone, before $200-400 annual savings in maintenance. Less if kWh prices comes down further, or gas prices go up, or if you live in area with more expensive gas than US. Global avg gas prices is ~35% more expensive than US. No many countries outside of petro states with substantially cheaper gas than US. As for long term durability for PRC cars specifically, seems fine so far in Australia / other regions with years of ownership experience. Who knows long term (i.e. 10-20 years) other than the cars been pulled apart by many manufactures and analysts who haven't found fault/substandard built quality.

by wg0 2y ago

jaggs 2y ago

That's strange you talk about EVs not lasting longer than 10 years. Do you have a source for that? In Europe there are EVs happily running after 10 years with minimal battery degradation. And that's early generation Nissan's. The later models have vastly improved battery technology, with CATL just releasing a battery which is guaranteed for 1 million kilometres. The point about replacing the engine and transmission is ICE is also telling. EVs have a fraction of the moving parts of ICE, and no explosions in cylinders to degrade a lump of metal. And as for the cost of batteries, I think you'll find that battery costs have been plummeting for the past 15 years as the technology improves dramatically. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-are-expected-to-fall-almost-50-percent-by-2025 https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/electric-vehi.... China are making premium EVs now for half the price of ICE equivalents. The race is actually over, it's just that the US hasn't heard yet. Oh and finally? China has launched a growing number of 1000 kilometer range EVs in the past two years. That number is also expected to grow as more solid state batteries hit the market.

maxglute 2y ago

Besides EV maintainence already being 25-50% cheaper. CATL/BYD aiming for ~$50 per kWh next few years, i.e. 60kWh pack drop from $6000 to $3000. Annual light vehicle stats for PRC/CA/RU/US is 12000-20000km, each 10000km saves ~$600 in gas (at least according to US calculators). Looking at less than 5 years to payback for new battery pack by replacement time few years from now on from fuel savings alone, before $200-400 annual savings in maintenance. Less if kWh prices comes down further, or gas prices go up, or if you live in area with more expensive gas than US. Global avg gas prices is ~35% more expensive than US. No many countries outside of petro states with substantially cheaper gas than US. As for long term durability for PRC cars specifically, seems fine so far in Australia / other regions with years of ownership experience. Who knows long term (i.e. 10-20 years) other than the cars been pulled apart by many manufactures and analysts who haven't found fault/substandard built quality.