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More logically, if you're serious about climate change you're not serious about nuclear. This Amazon investment aims to only have 5GW of nuclear on the grid 15
by epistasis 2y ago
More logically, if you're serious about climate change you're not serious about nuclear.
This Amazon investment aims to only have 5GW of nuclear on the grid 15 years from now. That's not a solution to climate change, it's not even a rounding error. It rises to a rounding error on the suddenly discovered need for new energy for AI, but it's a decade late for that. In 15 years, the grid will be completely decarbonized by solar and batteries and wind, existing nuclear/hydro, and probably some new tech like enhanced geothermal. This is 2039 energy environment that nuclear will enter into, and it will have to compete with 15 more years of prices falling on batteries and renewables. SMRs can't compete on price with today's price for new large nuclear, todays new large nuclear can't compete on price with today's solar/wind/batteries, and today's solar/wind/batteries sure as hell won't compete with 15 years of prices falling. SMRs like this have no hope to be a competitive product.
Nuclear has overpromised and underdelivered for 60 years. We should have kept existing plants running. If our anscestors had lit money on fire to produce a bunch of reactors 40 years ago, we'd be in a much better position.
But we'd also be in a much better position had they not pooh-poohed solar and made bigger investments sooner, driving forward solar revolution by 15-30 years from where it is now.
We'd have been in a much better position if there had been a massive investment in battery technology 15-30 years earlier, making EVs feasible sooner, and revolutionizing the grid with storage sooner.
Solar and batteries will be the foundation of the future, because they are technology that gets cheaper the more we invest in them. Nuclear might be around in 50 years, maybe not, but it won't be any cheaper or more affordable. It's a technology that barely moves the more we spend on it, and can sometimes be economically efficient in the best of cases. But the average case for building nuclear is big price overruns, and it's not uncommon for utilities to be brought to the point of bankruptcy.
We have better technology available, today, to be deployed. Let's do it. Nuclear is a pipe dream from people that haven't run the numbers, or have run the numbers they have gotten them drastically wrong. The entire history of nuclear energy in this country is of people not running the numbers or running the numbers and getting them drastically wrong.